Could Arroyo win the Giro?

DavMartinR

With today looking like a stage for the sprinters. It's down to Friday and Saturday for the GC contenders.

Could Arroyo with the help of his nearly complete team, which should be well motivated keep the pink jersey all the way to Verona.

Or will Basso and Evans take to much time off him in the 2 mountain stages?

mididoctors

I reckon the podium is not impossible thou the top rung looks unlikely

TheStone

Current Odds:

Basso 4/6
Evans 11/4
Arroyo 9/1

So they're giving him a fair chance.

I think there's too much climbing Fri and Sat (depending on the new route) for him to hold on.

Bronzie

Just looking at where he's lost time to Basso......

after St.11 (L'Aquila ambush) he had c. +10mins
St.14 - lost 2-15
St.15 - lost 4-00
St.16 - lost 1-06

While the next 2 days are savage (St.19 4,600m climbing, St.20 6,300m climbing :shock:), neither of the finishing climbs are that severe. However, the descent off the Mortirolo (St.19) is very technical and it's unlikely anyone dropped on the climb will be likely to get back on to the leaders.

The time trial is very short (c.20 minute times) so unless there are a handful of seconds in it, I don't see it being that decisive. What's Arroyo like in TT's in comparison to Basso?

Arroyo had to dig deep to stick with Basso on the short ramp to yesterday's finish and had to be helped away from the finish apparently, so how much he has left in the tank is doubtful.

Bernardus

Bronzie wrote:

While the next 2 days are savage (St.19 4,600m climbing, St.20 6,300m climbing :shock:), neither of the finishing climbs are that severe. However, the descent off the Mortirolo (St.19) is very technical and it's unlikely anyone dropped on the climb will be likely to get back on to the leaders.

That technical descent is probably a mayor concern for Basso. He's really not good at going downhill. During last years Giro he was dropped on a descent by Menchov and Di Luca, a good descender like Evans will attack Basso there.

Bronzie wrote:

The time trial is very short (c.20 minute times) so unless there are a handful of seconds in it, I don't see it being that decisive. What's Arroyo like in TT's in comparison to Basso?

Arroyo had to dig deep to stick with Basso on the short ramp to yesterday's finish and had to be helped away from the finish apparently, so how much he has left in the tank is doubtful.

Since Basso's return they've raced each other in 6 ITTs, Basso finished ahead of Arroyo in 5 of them. Last year the TT on the final day was of the same length, but there was less climbing. Arroyo lost only 30 seconds to Basso. In the 2009 Tirreno the hilly TT was twice the length and Arroyo lost 1:20 to Basso.

But if Arroyo's tank really is empty he could lose a lot more. The final TT in a Grand Tour is more a test of recuperation and energy reserves than TT abilities.

iainf72

I expect the Basso / Evans / Scarponi trio will try to rid of him on the Mortirolo tomorrow. And with a bit of tough riding it looks likely they will. But Arroyo is a tough cookie and we'll have to see how he goes.

I notice he talks of a podium spot so he's probably accepting he's going to lose time.

I expect the GC will be decided on Saturday.

blazing_saddles

I'm not writing Nibali off, with potentially two extremely tough descents, before each finshing climb.

Arroyo won't make it up the Mortirolo, with the big guns.
2006, same stage finish, had huge time gaps.

frenchfighter

Is Arroyo any good in the rain?!

"My health is good and my form as well," Vino said. "I hear that bad weather is expected on Saturday. If so, we'll have some fun. There could be some damage. When the weather is bad, half of the riders are automatically out of contention."

iainf72

Blazing Saddles wrote:

I'm not writing Nibali off, with potentially two extremely tough descents, before each finshing climb.

Possible but I think they'll get him to look after Basso. If Evans and Basso go hard on the 2nd last climb Nibs will probably be distanced.

But who knows.

frenchfighter

Anyway, the only strong ones in this race are very clear if you remove the huge gains those riders made on that flat stage the current GC would look like this:

Basso
Evans @42
Nibali @2.26
Vino @2.45
Scarponi @2.57
Cunego @6.54
Pinotti @8.01
Karpets @12.07
Porte @12.41
Mollem @12.57

So basically without that gift, none of the riders in that break would be near contention barring some huge GC shake up tomorrow or Saturday. None in the top ten apart from Porte who rode a great first week or so. The stage was what it was and the GC is waht it is, but I think putting it like this is VERY telling.

Very impressed with Pinotti.

frenchfighter

So in short, I hope he doesn't win and I hope the two stages to come shake the weaker riders out big time so the final GC looks more like the above.

DavMartinR

What about Sastre? He won stage 16 and 19 last year, and being 4: 41 down he must be eyeing the next two days up.

donrhummy

I don't think so, but you never know. I think if Evans can stay within 1 minute, he'll beat him in the final TT. But the final TT is only 15 km, so we'll see.

rick_chasey

DavMartinR wrote:

What about Sastre? He won stage 16 and 19 last year, and being 4: 41 down he must be eyeing the next two days up.

He's too old...

Tom Butcher

I'm with Bernadus - I reckon the descents of the Gavia (if it happens) and the Mortirolo are the battle ground for the GC just as much as the climbs. Liquigas are going to have to be careful they don't allow Basso to become dropped on one of those descents and isolated - they've probably got the riders to cope but they'll have to play it right.

timoid.

Rick Chasey wrote:

DavMartinR wrote:

What about Sastre? He won stage 16 and 19 last year, and being 4: 41 down he must be eyeing the next two days up.

He's too old...

Agreed. Also if Arroyo is still in pink today it will be by a handful of seconds. This is a straight fight between Basso and Evans. And I mean genuinely straight. Thank goodness Pelizotti wasn't allowed start.