Greece now - the UK next?
Cressers
Posts: 1,329
It seems to me that the markets are just marking time until after the election result, and once that is in, the s**t really hits the fan..
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Comments
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No s**t Sherlock.........
Hypothetical situation
"Things are not good, the election is coming up, do you think we should tell everybody?
Eh, no"
:evil:None of the above should be taken seriously, and certainly not personally.0 -
BOLLOX.,
Really, just no.
Is this the international conspiracy between economic agents and govt., who conspire to preserve the status quo, before shocking the world with devestating news?
Will reply in full tomorrow, but basically the 2 situations are completely different in every way/shape/form."I hold it true, what'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost;
Than never to have loved at all."
Alfred Tennyson0 -
The markets are still in a state of confusion between a state of rebound and recovery.
The Governments finances are separate but do affect the market.
The true state of the Government's finances are unclear as they only know the true figure.
It is accepted that there are massive black holes but the size of these holes are only guessed at and will become apparent after the election.
This is holding back the British markets and the IMF may well have something to say if things get as bad as Greece.
Only my opinion of course, but this is a cycling forum
None of the above should be taken seriously, and certainly not personally.0 -
In august '06 I was derrided as a doom-monger on another forum for predicting a slump...0
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There's some big differences between the UK and Greece.
Mainly, the UK has it's own currency, which it's been printing/devaluing during the crisis.
Over the short term, this can cushion/hide many of the problems. Long term, not so much.
Secondly, historically the UK issues long term debt (25yrs), so the rollover of the debt is
not so frequent. This means the market is less likely to 'test' the UK.
The underlying issues are much the same. Too much public spending. Too much debt (public,
banking and private).
The UK is a much larger economy which should mean it can avoid the huge problems seen
in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Iceland and Spain.
However, of the larger countries only Japan is in as bad situation as the UK. Hard to see
how this will play out, but the IMF/EU cannot save the UK.
Whatever happens, the standard of living will drop substantially.
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Cressers wrote:In august '06 I was derrided as a doom-monger on another forum for predicting a slump...
Well that's where you made your mistake then.
What you should have done was discuss your issue with the cognoscenti of Cake Stop where appropriate advice and/or comment would have been given.
-Spider-0 -
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Isn't predicting a slump a little bit like predicting rain? The tricky bit is not predicting it will happen, but predicting when it will happen!0
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What markets? Currency markets? Equity markets? Commodity markets? Futures markets? All of them?Cressers wrote:It seems to me that the markets are just marking time until after the election result, and once that is in, the s**t really hits the fan..
The one thing they have in common is that they don't 'mark time' - they reflect the actual real time value (i.e. the price buyers are willing to pay) of the assets being traded. If sentiment changes, prices change almost immediately, so views of short and long term prospects are already priced in.
The election result could obviously affect markets, but that has always been the case. I don't see why things are likely to be drastically different this time. If the markets like the result (majority government, clear mandate, political and economic stability) then the impact won';t be that great. If they don't like the result (hung parliament, radical economic policies, short term poliical and economic uncertainty) then they will be a bit more volatile.
Unless you've got a lot of money tied up in 'the markets' that you're going to need in the near future then I wouldn't worry too much.0 -
The important one is the bond market. In particular the gilt market.Seanos wrote:What markets? Currency markets? Equity markets? Commodity markets? Futures markets? All of them?
If confidence in the UK drops further then the price of gilts will fall and the price of
borrowing rises.
The confidence in the UK will fall if there doesn't seem to be a plan to reduce the deficit.
IMO, the deficit needs to become a surplus much sooner than expected. The plan to half
the deficit over the course of the next parliament is nowhere near enough if you also want
to keep interest rates low.0 -
cedar404 wrote:TheStone wrote:Whatever happens, the standard of living will drop substantially.
Only if the Conservatives have a majority. I think someone needs to send Gideon Osborne General Theory of Employment Interest and Money by Keynes.
Really?
Keynes was a genius in his day, but is totally outdated today. Economics changes, as people and society changes. Writings from 60 years ago are of limited use today.
Not that he was great back then anyway..."I hold it true, what'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost;
Than never to have loved at all."
Alfred Tennyson0 -
Quite really ....
Keynes > Supply Side Economics / Monetarism.
End Of.0 -
daviesee wrote:The markets are still in a state of confusion between a state of rebound and recovery.
The Governments finances are separate but do affect the market.
The true state of the Government's finances are unclear as they only know the true figure.
It is accepted that there are massive black holes but the size of these holes are only guessed at and will become apparent after the election.
This is holding back the British markets and the IMF may well have something to say if things get as bad as Greece.
Only my opinion of course, but this is a cycling forum
Anyone seen the news today?
It's not always a good thing being right :evil:None of the above should be taken seriously, and certainly not personally.0 -
If your aim is GDP growth, then Keynes is fine*.
The problem is that at some point the debt needs to be serviced and as it gets too large
this becomes impossible, as Greece are finding out now.
This recession/depression came about because there was far too much debt (money
supply inflation) with hardly any increase in wages. Once the debt got too large, people
started to default, the banks were insolvent, less lending then less spending.
The government (following the Keynes model), increased spending to fill the decline in
private spending. They didn't aim to replace private debt with public debt, they only aimed
to replace the spending in the hope that magically it would all work out. Now we still have
massive private debt, but also massive public debt.
Still no idea how this will play out, but it won't be nice.
The order:
- Iceland
- Greece
- Portugal
- Spain
- Ireland
- Italy
- UK
(* I'm not sure GDP growth measures much more than a function of the difference
between money supply inflation and a price index M4vCPI).0 -
TheStone wrote:
IMO, the deficit needs to become a surplus much sooner than expected. The plan to half
the deficit over the course of the next parliament is nowhere near enough if you also want
to keep interest rates low.
How is this meant to happen though? The debt is huge!You live and learn. At any rate, you live0 -
Can't we just get incriminating photographs of the head of the IMF and his mistress?What wheels...? Wheelsmith.co.uk!0
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog ... ial-crisis
Take a look at the sub-title:
• S&P hits Spain with a credit rating downgrade
So Spain is the next Greece eh?
1-0 isn't it Cressers?0 -
Jez mon wrote:TheStone wrote:
IMO, the deficit needs to become a surplus much sooner than expected. The plan to half
the deficit over the course of the next parliament is nowhere near enough if you also want
to keep interest rates low.
How is this meant to happen though? The debt is huge!
- Raise tax wherever possible (although we're probably close to the maximum take)
- Remove all middle class benefits
- Reduce all housing benefit
- Cut benefits where possible
- Cut spending where possible.
- Raise all retirement ages.
We do it now, or we have to go further later.0 -
Cressers wrote:It seems to me that the markets are just marking time until after the election result, and once that is in, the s**t really hits the fan..
Do you work for the Daily Mail by any chance? 0 -
I got chills they're multiplying
And they're loosing control
Cos the money they're supplying
It's just crazy
Greece is the word
The Westminster Gravy Train ??? You ain't seen nothing yet.
VOTE UKIP0 -
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There's a very good article by Stephanie Flanders about the difference between the UK and Greece here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters ... r_now.html0 -
Et voila
see
Open Europe estimates for EU-27 budget for 2007-2013 in euros (€)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_ ... pean_Union
Let's get out of Europe , we'll probably suffer like Switzerland and Norway0 -
berliner wrote:Et voila
see
Open Europe estimates for EU-27 budget for 2007-2013 in euros (€)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_ ... pean_Union
Let's get out of Europe , we'll probably suffer like Switzerland and Norway
You've clearly put a lot of thought into this 0 -
SteveR_100Milers wrote:berliner wrote:Et voila
see
Open Europe estimates for EU-27 budget for 2007-2013 in euros (€)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_ ... pean_Union
Let's get out of Europe , we'll probably suffer like Switzerland and Norway
You've clearly put a lot of thought into this
Sie haben klar gestellt sehr viele Gedanken in diese
Вие ясно поставени много мисъл в тази
Heu clarament lloc molt pensament en aquest
Vy jste jasně dát hodně myslel, že do tohoto
Du har tydeligvis lagt en masse tankevirksomhed i denne
Je hebt duidelijk een hoop geld van het denken in deze
Olete ilmselgelt palju mõelnud sellesse
Olet selvästi tehnyt paljon ajatellut tätä
Vous avez clairement mis beaucoup de pensée dans ce
Tá tú a chur go soiléir go leor cheap isteach sa
......................................bored
In the European Parliament the translations costs a full-day
meeting is €118,0000 -
berliner wrote:SteveR_100Milers wrote:berliner wrote:Et voila
see
Open Europe estimates for EU-27 budget for 2007-2013 in euros (€)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_ ... pean_Union
Let's get out of Europe , we'll probably suffer like Switzerland and Norway
You've clearly put a lot of thought into this
Sie haben klar gestellt sehr viele Gedanken in diese
Вие ясно поставени много мисъл в тази
Heu clarament lloc molt pensament en aquest
Vy jste jasně dát hodně myslel, že do tohoto
Du har tydeligvis lagt en masse tankevirksomhed i denne
Je hebt duidelijk een hoop geld van het denken in deze
Olete ilmselgelt palju mõelnud sellesse
Olet selvästi tehnyt paljon ajatellut tätä
Vous avez clairement mis beaucoup de pensée dans ce
Tá tú a chur go soiléir go leor cheap isteach sa
......................................bored
In the European Parliament the translations costs a full-day
meeting is €118,000
Oo scary foreigners speaking another language.
UK trades more with EU members than the rest of the world combined.
Makes sense to be part of what is still principally an economic union. Country gains plenty more from that trade advantage than the cost to run the thing.
Anyway, people are getting paid for that translation. More jobs?
p.s. shame you didn't translate the whole sentence...0 -
TheStone wrote:Jez mon wrote:TheStone wrote:
IMO, the deficit needs to become a surplus much sooner than expected. The plan to half
the deficit over the course of the next parliament is nowhere near enough if you also want
to keep interest rates low.
How is this meant to happen though? The debt is huge!
- Raise tax wherever possible (although we're probably close to the maximum take)
- Remove all middle class benefits
- Reduce all housing benefit
- Cut benefits where possible
- Cut spending where possible.
- Raise all retirement ages.
We do it now, or we have to go further later.
- As you say, tax is already quite high, combine this with the fact that many feel they get poor value for money and this would be extremely unpopular
- I don't have figures, but my understanding is that removing such benefits would be a drop in the ocean (happy to be proved wrong though)
- Pretty much same as above
- Million dollar question, where do you cut spending? IIRC this country has got itself into a position where many jobs are dependant on a certain level of public spending, cut the spending and you risk starting off another economic decline.
- Fine with me, but can we lower them again when I become middle aged?
I agree that this country faces some pretty dire times ahead,( tbh, I'm looking to emigrate once I graduate). However, I think that the decline on public spending has to be managed very carefully, people genuinely feel they're being taxed to the hilt and get poor vfm, so spending cuts that result in lower quality front line services will be poorly received.You live and learn. At any rate, you live0 -
berliner wrote:SteveR_100Milers wrote:berliner wrote:Et voila
see
Open Europe estimates for EU-27 budget for 2007-2013 in euros (€)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_ ... pean_Union
Let's get out of Europe , we'll probably suffer like Switzerland and Norway
You've clearly put a lot of thought into this
Sie haben klar gestellt sehr viele Gedanken in diese
Вие ясно поставени много мисъл в тази
Heu clarament lloc molt pensament en aquest
Vy jste jasně dát hodně myslel, že do tohoto
Du har tydeligvis lagt en masse tankevirksomhed i denne
Je hebt duidelijk een hoop geld van het denken in deze
Olete ilmselgelt palju mõelnud sellesse
Olet selvästi tehnyt paljon ajatellut tätä
Vous avez clairement mis beaucoup de pensée dans ce
Tá tú a chur go soiléir go leor cheap isteach sa
......................................bored
In the European Parliament the translations costs a full-day
meeting is €118,000
clearly not then
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