Do you think the price of bikes will come down?

DonDaddyD

I bought my first road bike for £350 in 2008. A Giant SCR3 with Tiagra rear mech coupled with sora shifters and front mech. At full price it was being sold at around £450.

Today, though the SCR has since been replaced with the Defy range, the equivilent bike would cost £650. To me that's a huge difference nearly as much as a Giant Escape M2 I bought for £250, back in 2007 (08 model). The equivilent bike is now being sold at £450. You can see where I'm going.

So I ask will the prices of bikes ever come down back to their apparent 2007 - 2008 low or is inflation going to stick and we are all going to have to be paid more money to meet consumer demand?

DonDaddyD

I've posted away from the original question as it is just thoughts and ramblings.

To be honest, I understand that bike sales are booming, but the bubble cannot last. The prices in 2008 were affordable and made entry into cycling accessible.

With the knowledge I now have I would be loathe to have to buy a new bike knowing what I could once get.

I know there are fluctuations witht the pound and it is weak against nearly all other major currencies at the moment but seriously, I'm now of the thought that bikes (some often from the main dealers) are overpriced.

alfablue

My LBS manager told me back in 2008 that the manufacturers were trying to cut back on oversupply - to avoid or reduce the customary end of season discounting, certainly last year it seemed to be working as he struggled to get hold of the Trek road bike my g/f wanted, this was in June. If they are effective in controlling supply like this then I expect they will do better at maintaining prices. There is also a hint/suspicion that some major manufacturer's might be pressurising dealers regarding pricing (i.e. price fixing). Of course the exchange rate has had a big effect on top of the supply issue. In the medium term my suspicion is that consumer demand will stay strong and in combination with the other factors, above, we will not see a significant reduction in prices any time soon.

beverick

Yes and no. Some will go up, others will come down.

Bob

alfablue

beverick wrote:

Yes and no. Some will go up, others will come down.

Bob

I think you have a very good chance of being correct!

Christophe3967

Last year when I bought a new bike, I was struggling to find the one I wanted. The fact that cycling is growing in popularity, together with a weak pound, means prices will probably continue to rise in the foreseeable future.

On the brighter side, bicycles could well prove to be a very good hedge against inflation. 8)

fidbod

Just looking at cable and GBP:EUR exchange fluctuations seems to account for a 20-30% increase in costs.

I think DDD is right that the price increase for an entry level road bike is not reasonabl.

I have no evidence to support it but I wonder if Cycle to work has caused a raising of prices... If you are buying through C2W your are less price sensitive because you don't pay tax on the purchase or tax on the wages to pay the bike back. So an easy way for manufacturers to improve margins.

Alfablue's point also sounds true - my LBS was almost out of bikes last summer

tailwindhome

The second hand market is more interesting

Tricross single speeds are now changing hands on EBAY for more than Pearsons were selling them for in last years sale (£275)

Christophe3967

fidbod wrote:

Just looking at cable and GBP:EUR exchange fluctuations seems to account for a 20-30% increase in costs.

I think DDD is right that the price increase for an entry level road bike is not reasonabl.

I have no evidence to support it but I wonder if Cycle to work has caused a raising of prices... If you are buying through C2W your are less price sensitive because you don't pay tax on the purchase or tax on the w,
Alfablue's point also sounds true - my LBS was almost out of bikes last summer

AFAIK most bike components are priced in dollars and, given that cable's up 13% over the past 12 months, we shouldn't be too concerned that bike manufacturers are having a tough time. :roll:

Interesting to note that some bikes are changing hands fetching more on Ebay than their new price. Flippin 'eck.... we need to get in on the bicycle futures market pdq before Goldman Sachs spot a niche.

fidbod

Christophe3967 wrote:

fidbod wrote:

Just looking at cable and GBP:EUR exchange fluctuations seems to account for a 20-30% increase in costs.

I think DDD is right that the price increase for an entry level road bike is not reasonabl.

I have no evidence to support it but I wonder if Cycle to work has caused a raising of prices... If you are buying through C2W your are less price sensitive because you don't pay tax on the purchase or tax on the w,
Alfablue's point also sounds true - my LBS was almost out of bikes last summer

AFAIK most bike components are priced in dollars and, given that cable's up 13% over the past 12 months, we shouldn't be too concerned that bike manufacturers are having a tough time. :roll:

Interesting to note that some bikes are changing hands fetching more on Ebay than their new price. Flippin 'eck.... we need to get in on the bicycle futures market pdq before Goldman Sachs spot a niche.

But DDD bought his bike in 2008 and cable pre lehmans is a completely different kettle of fish... but enough being picky

Christophe3967

fidbod wrote:

Christophe3967 wrote:

fidbod wrote:

Just looking at cable and GBP:EUR exchange fluctuations seems to account for a 20-30% increase in costs.

I think DDD is right that the price increase for an entry level road bike is not reasonabl.

I have no evidence to support it but I wonder if Cycle to work has caused a raising of prices... If you are buying through C2W your are less price sensitive because you don't pay tax on the purchase or tax on the w,
Alfablue's point also sounds true - my LBS was almost out of bikes last summer

AFAIK most bike components are priced in dollars and, given that cable's up 13% over the past 12 months, we shouldn't be too concerned that bike manufacturers are having a tough time. :roll:

Interesting to note that some bikes are changing hands fetching more on Ebay than their new price. Flippin 'eck.... we need to get in on the bicycle futures market pdq before Goldman Sachs spot a niche.

But DDD bought his bike in 2008 and cable pre lehmans is a completely different kettle of fish... but enough being picky

I didn't realise that DDD had such an old bike

Jay dubbleU

The M2 that I bought last year was 350.00 - so that's 50% increase in 12 months - don't see how prices can continue to rise at that rate. If it carries on by 2011 we'll be paying 500 plus for the M2 equvalent

Bassjunkieuk

In some way's I'm sort of glad looking at the range of bikes nowadays that my employee doesn't do C2W! There are a few exceptions as C+ did a nice article on £1000 sportive bikes this month (although being a tart I'd prefer the all-carbon Planet X to the Cannondale, but I'd want to test ride both as the Dale was meant to have an amazing frame.......)

My SCR 3.0 is the previous years model to DDD and I actually got mine for £25 cheaper by some stroke of luck! If I try and find a comparable spec'd bike now I'd need to spend double that!

benno68

I've voted no. Why would manufactures/bike shops drop prices if sales are good?

Also I think that the manufacturing costs may well increase as workers quite rightly expect a reasonable lifestyle, then there's the green issue with utilities likely to increase.

@Bass - I read that article too and I would be torn between the superb CAAD9 and the great value carbon Planet X.

UndercoverElephant

I think I have you all beaten, my 2009 BeOne cost me £600, the 2010 model goes for about £1700. :shock:

(They may have upgraded this and that, though)

alan_sherman

However my old 14 speed down tube shifter peugeot cost £300 in 1992, and an equivalent bike would be the same price now - so in real terms is a lot cheaper (time value of money and all that).

MonkeyMonster

Christophe3967 wrote:

I didn't realise that DDD had such an old bike

Does explain why his avg speed is a mere 12 mph though... 8)

artaxerxes

I have no evidence to support it but I wonder if Cycle to work has caused a raising of prices... If you are buying through C2W your are less price sensitive because you don't pay tax on the purchase or tax on the wages to pay the bike back. So an easy way for manufacturers to improve margins.

+1

I think this is part of the reason, along with the weak pound. Also the price of oil is creeping back up, so the cost to transport bikes from Taiwan to Europe will keep going up too. If this carries on we might have to start mass manufacturing bikes in the UK again.

evernas

NO.What way they will go down?Banks rise their interest,mortagages and so on.and what peoples do-cut their expences except for foods,fuel an so on.all other stuff like bikes takes a second place even further.from the other hand when purchases of bikes go down whats next?priceses of bikes go UUUUP.Don't expect owner of bikes shops works on loss,do you?they are victums of suppliers,producers and so on
i've "suffering"also from that fact-cos i'm buyer and wnat say that next year will be worst-inflation rise every day up!!! :evil:

wyadvd

IMO government subsidy's such as cycle to work do nothing to help anyone. Prices just go up commensurately.

Christophe3967

UndercoverElephant wrote:

I think I have you all beaten, my 2009 BeOne cost me £600, the 2010 model goes for about £1700. :shock:

(They may have upgraded this and that, though)

So, we just identify the next undervalued boutique bike brand (BMC? Kuota?) hoover up a few and wait.. beats gold

Aidy

Christophe3967 wrote:

On the brighter side, bicycles could well prove to be a very good hedge against inflation. 8)

That's it. I'm beating the recession and investing in bicycles.

Bassjunkieuk

MonkeyMonster wrote:

Christophe3967 wrote:

I didn't realise that DDD had such an old bike

Does explain why his avg speed is a mere 12 mph though... 8)

Have you seen him on Karen? I don't think it's the age of the bike........;-)

Bassjunkieuk

Aidy wrote:

Christophe3967 wrote:

On the brighter side, bicycles could well prove to be a very good hedge against inflation. 8)

That's it. I'm beating the recession and investing in bicycles.

Maybe that's ITB's reasoning with his huge stable!

Aidy

Bassjunkieuk wrote:

Maybe that's ITB's reasoning with his huge stable!

To be fair, I'm on 7. And most of an 8th.

DonDaddyD

Bassjunkieuk wrote:

MonkeyMonster wrote:

Christophe3967 wrote:

I didn't realise that DDD had such an old bike

Does explain why his avg speed is a mere 12 mph though... 8)

Have you seen him on Karen? I don't think it's the age of the bike........;-)

You A-holes! Never make accusations of a ladies age! :evil:

I bought Karen last year, she is not even a year old! 8)

I bought Donovan (my Giant SCR 3) in 2008.

Bassjunkieuk

DonDaddyD wrote:

Bassjunkieuk wrote:

MonkeyMonster wrote:

Christophe3967 wrote:

I didn't realise that DDD had such an old bike

Does explain why his avg speed is a mere 12 mph though... 8)

Have you seen him on Karen? I don't think it's the age of the bike........;-)

You A-holes! Never make accusations of a ladies age! :evil:

I bought Karen last year, she is not even a year old! 8)

I bought Donovan (my Giant SCR 3) in 2008.

MonkeyMonster

I'd forgotten i'd poked this fire - nice the see the flames got so high

morpeth on friday then ddd? :twisted:

wyadvd

I vote yes if only because we are in the middle of the largest cyclically deflationary period since the 1750s

wyadvd

if what this guy says is true then the price of almost everything will virtually half over the next 5 or 6 years

http://arabianmoney.net/2009/11/05/bob- ... ket-crash/

Christophe3967

wyadvd wrote:

if what this guy says is true then the price of almost everything will virtually half over the next 5 or 6 years

http://arabianmoney.net/2009/11/05/bob- ... ket-crash/

Nooo, we say 'pah' to doom and gloom merchants Doesn't he know that Our Dear Leader is saving us? And not just us, he's saving the whole world. I heard Ken Livingstone say so only the other day, so it must be true. Relax. Have a beer. The investment prospectus for our new idea, the SCR Boutique Bicycle Geared ExchangeTraded Fund, will be published any day now and then we'll all be rich. We’ll start with say 100 bikes in an investment trust, establish a company in the Cayman Islands, get PWC or KPMG to sign everything off, gear up using debt/equity swaps, move half the bikes offshore for tax purposes and lease them back via a new EU business initiative scheme, using funds diverted from Greek peach growers, who aren't very good at maths. As the bikes appreciate in value (or when I'm bored riding Colnagos) we can finance new additions. Clearly, it will be important to test ride the bikes from time to time to make sure they work, but I'll only do this when its not raining . Honest.