Sastre's GT's next year

iainf72

He's confirmed that French one is one of the 2 he'll do.

I reckon he'll go for the Vuelta.

Sheptastic

that'd be sensible, he hasn't got a hope in the TDF

iainf72

Sheptastic wrote:

that'd be sensible, he hasn't got a hope in the TDF

Well, he thinks he has as he's doing it

blazing_saddles

I reckon you are right.
I also have a feeling that the Giro will have a much weakened field, next year and not just because of Bob's 4th GT.
Well, not directly, at least.

Sheptastic

It'd take a phenomenal effort and a supurb stroke of luck. Any sastre attack is going to come in the last week. the chances that none of the other contendors are going to let him spin off up the hill alone are slim, particluarly with the field being as strong as i think everyone expects.

I think he'll rock up to be the super-uber domestique.

afx237vi

Sheptastic wrote:

It'd take a phenomenal effort and a supurb stroke of luck. Any sastre attack is going to come in the last week. the chances that none of the other contendors are going to let him spin off up the hill alone are slim, particluarly with the field being as strong as i think everyone expects.

I think he'll rock up to be the super-uber domestique.

For who? Can't see him being much use in Thor's lead-out train!

If Sastre is doing the Tour, I guess Deignan will have a shot at the Giro GC.

dennisn

iainf72 wrote:

Sheptastic wrote:

that'd be sensible, he hasn't got a hope in the TDF

Well, he thinks he has as he's doing it

The more the merrier. Who will crack first or is it more about who will crack last?

andyp

Sheptastic wrote:

It'd take a phenomenal effort

Remind me again how Sastre won the Tour last year?

Sheptastic

different ball game.

Why didn't he do it this year?

victorponf

He is waiting for Vuelta´s route presentation (15 diciembre) to decide between Giro and Tour.

andyp

Sheptastic wrote:

different ball game.

Why didn't he do it this year?

A different ball game? That's odd, it looked like a bike race, with road stages, mountains, time trials, sprints etc., just like normal.

He didn't win this year because he didn't have the form. But only a fool would write him off from being able to do it again, especially given his track record in the Tour and other three week stage races.

The Prodigy

andyp wrote:

Sheptastic wrote:

different ball game.

Why didn't he do it this year?

A different ball game? That's odd, it looked like a bike race, with road stages, mountains, time trials, sprints etc., just like normal.

He didn't win this year because he didn't have the form. But only a fool would write him off from being able to do it again, especially given his track record in the Tour and other three week stage races.

I wouldn't right him off, he's in with a chance, but only a small one

moray_gub

andyp wrote:

Sheptastic wrote:

different ball game.

Why didn't he do it this year?

A different ball game? That's odd, it looked like a bike race, with road stages, mountains, time trials, sprints etc., just like normal.

He didn't win this year because he didn't have the form. But only a fool would write him off from being able to do it again, especially given his track record in the Tour and other three week stage races.

Dont know so much if was a form isssue as he had the form to win 2 Giro stages, i kinda agree with sheptastic here he has litttle or no chance of pulling off another TDF win. His win last year while a great effort was basically through having a strong team and him being opportunistic on Huez, still cant take it away from him though but up against Bertie and Schleck the younger i just dont see him getting a sniff.

andyp

I agree he has a slim chance, but still a chance.

That stage win on Alpe d'Huez, which set him up for the overall victory, was an attack that none of the other GC contenders could stay with, despite some of them, Menchov being the main one, trying to.

Next year's Tour route is more suited to him than this year's, with no TTT and one long TT on the last Saturday but plenty of hard mountain stages, especially in the final week.

Do I think he'll win when up against Contador and Schleck? No, I don't, but you never know, if he has the form and the opportunity again then he has a chance.

Pokerface

andyp wrote:

Sheptastic wrote:

It'd take a phenomenal effort

Remind me again how Sastre won the Tour last year?

Contador didn't ride. That's how he won!


But - in theory - anything can happen and he could still win. Crashes, bonking, poor-timed flat tyre, etc.

The race isn't over until the last day. Sure, everyone thinks/knows Bertie will win if everything goes according to plan, but that the thing about life. It doesn't always go to plan.

moray_gub

andyp wrote:

I agree he has a slim chance, but still a chance.

That stage win on Alpe d'Huez, which set him up for the overall victory, was an attack that none of the other GC contenders could stay with, despite some of them, Menchov being the main one, trying to.

Thats not strictly accurate as menchov was the only real favourite that tried to go with him. the rest including Cadel Evans let him go.

andyp

Let him go or couldn't go with him? It's hard to say for sure but given how close he was to yellow that day, letting him go was the major error of the Tour.

moray_gub

andyp wrote:

Let him go or couldn't go with him? It's hard to say for sure but given how close he was to yellow that day, letting him go was the major error of the Tour.

I think they let him go and Evans blew his only chance to win the Tour and only realised it half way up the climb and then he started chasing.

chrisbonnie

andyp wrote:

I agree he has a slim chance, but still a chance.

That stage win on Alpe d'Huez, which set him up for the overall victory, was an attack that none of the other GC contenders could stay with, despite some of them, Menchov being the main one, trying to.

exactly!!!

funny thing is, i was only looking at the quickest ascent of AlpeD`Huez yesterday, Sastrs was the 17th fastest, but you look at the name sahead of him and everyone ahs failed a doping test at some stage in their carers, so tells you actually how good Sastra is

i suppose im basically getting at i reckon this years tour wasnt as clean as the 2008 one, regardless of confirmed positive tests, with Lance Armstrong back for this tour, the organisers would sweep any positive tests under the carpet, and thats one of the reasons Sastra wasnt as strong this year

plus Cervelo were not, and are not, as strong as what CSc where

moray_gub

chrisbonnie wrote:

andyp wrote:

I agree he has a slim chance, but still a chance.

That stage win on Alpe d'Huez, which set him up for the overall victory, was an attack that none of the other GC contenders could stay with, despite some of them, Menchov being the main one, trying to.

exactly!!!

funny thing is, i was only looking at the quickest ascent of AlpeD`Huez yesterday, Sastrs was the 17th fastest, but you look at the name sahead of him and everyone ahs failed a doping test at some stage in their carers, so tells you actually how good Sastra is

i suppose im basically getting at i reckon this years tour wasnt as clean as the 2008 one, regardless of confirmed positive tests, with Lance Armstrong back for this tour, the organisers would sweep any positive tests under the carpet, and thats one of the reasons Sastra wasnt as strong this year

plus Cervelo were not, and are not, as strong as what CSc where

Sastre was not as strong becuase he is a year older and there were stronger riders in the race this year than him nothing to do with PEDs. I like Carlos but he benefited last year from an almost inept display from Cadel Evans on the Alpe he literally flung away the Tour. Im afraid for me Carlos has had his day in the sun its very unlikely he will benefit from such ineptitude and win the Tour again.

disgruntledgoat

I'm going to be charitable to Evans on this one... He couldn't chase Sastre, not with Schleck and Mini Schleck still there, he couldn't risk pulling them across the gap and then having them nip off to put another minute into him. As soon as he realised that Sastre was taking enough time to take yellow and be in with a half decent chance of holding it, he was the one driving the chasing group (for about the last 5km).

Obviously the Schlecks weren't going to chase Sastre and everyone else was hanging on.

FJS

Moray Gub wrote:

andyp wrote:

Let him go or couldn't go with him? It's hard to say for sure but given how close he was to yellow that day, letting him go was the major error of the Tour.

I think they let him go and Evans blew his only chance to win the Tour and only realised it half way up the climb and then he started chasing.

disgruntledgoat wrote:

I'm going to be charitable to Evans on this one... He couldn't chase Sastre, not with Schleck and Mini Schleck still there, he couldn't risk pulling them across the gap and then having them nip off to put another minute into him. As soon as he realised that Sastre was taking enough time to take yellow and be in with a half decent chance of holding it, he was the one driving the chasing group (for about the last 5km).

Obviously the Schlecks weren't going to chase Sastre and everyone else was hanging on.

Of course we can never be sure what motivates someone to make a decsision in a race, but I find the story that Evans let Sastre go not very believable. Of all three CSCs, Sastre was the most dangerous, with a much better TT than Frank Schleck (Andy Schleck was at 9 minutes at that pouint in the GC). Evans was only 8 seconds behind Frank Schleck, and one or even 2 minutes more would be easily regained in the TT. Sastre can produce a fairly decent TT on his day, at the end of a GT, and always was a much bigger risk.
The most logical explanation of what happened on L'Alpe d'Huez is that Evans couldn't follow Sastre, not that he 'let him go'. He might have hoped Sastre would blow on that first steep stretch an drop back, like Menchov did, but his chasing reaction was a bit late for that. I agree with Andy that Sastre could still beat Evans, Armstrong, Frank Schleck, Wiggins, et al. Bertie and Andy? Both? not really

moray_gub

FJS wrote:

Moray Gub wrote:

andyp wrote:

Let him go or couldn't go with him? It's hard to say for sure but given how close he was to yellow that day, letting him go was the major error of the Tour.

I think they let him go and Evans blew his only chance to win the Tour and only realised it half way up the climb and then he started chasing.

disgruntledgoat wrote:

I'm going to be charitable to Evans on this one... He couldn't chase Sastre, not with Schleck and Mini Schleck still there, he couldn't risk pulling them across the gap and then having them nip off to put another minute into him. As soon as he realised that Sastre was taking enough time to take yellow and be in with a half decent chance of holding it, he was the one driving the chasing group (for about the last 5km).

Obviously the Schlecks weren't going to chase Sastre and everyone else was hanging on.

The most logical explanation of what happened on L'Alpe d'Huez is that Evans couldn't follow Sastre, not that he 'let him go'. He might have hoped Sastre would blow on that first steep stretch an drop back, like Menchov did, but his chasing reaction was a bit late for that. I agree with Andy that Sastre could still beat Evans, Armstrong, Frank Schleck, Wiggins, et al. Bertie and Andy? Both? not really

We agree to disagree then the most logical explanation is he let him go as he didnt think Sastre would make up the time and he didnt know Sastre would pull out the TT of his life and he figured that staying with the yellow jersey would probbaly guarantee him the Tour .Subsequent events show that to be one of the biggest tactical howlers in modern day TDFs.I possibly agree Sastre could maybe beat Armstrong and Wiggins and Evans if he got lucky and rode another superb TT but Bertie and AS no chance.

flattythehurdler

I actually agree for once. Having seen overcoming, I thought Sastre would fly up the alpe (and backed him for the win berfore the stage), but though that Evans did well to hold him to the lead that he had, and gave himself a fighting chance in the TT. Sastre just produced a fantastic TT, and I reckon fatigue and lack of support over 3 weeks caught up with Cadel, nonetheless a really noble effort. It was one of the really great mountain stages in Tour history I thought. Withour support, Evans had the deck stacked too far against him.
I'd love to know what CSC's pre stage plans really were.

incog24

Hasn't Sastre come out and said he tried to peak too many times over the last year and his performance suffered because of it? Would explain why he was there abouts in lots of things but not awesome in anything particular...

frenchfighter

Sastre has had six top 10 Tour finishes. That is pretty damn good by anyone's standards.

timoid.

That picture makes me think two things:

1. He's a stylish SOB
2. Why is everyone convinced he's so clean?



I think he's now too old too old to win the tour, but you cannot write off someone with his record.

Cumulonimbus

Think he was a bit fortunate in 2008 in that Contador wasnt there and Andy Schleck was a bit too young. From what i remember Schleck looked like he could have stayed with sastre on the Alpe - of Schleck's eventual 11:30 ish deficit, 7:30 came on the hautacam when he faded badly towards the end through not eating enough. Well done to Sastre though, 2008 was his best chance and he took it.

IMO he was off the pace at this year's tour because of his efforts in the Giro. On the big mountain stage to Le Grand Bornand he would have lost time on the best riders anyway but i think he suffered badly from puncturing and having no support at all to change the wheel? After that i think he gave up. On Ventoux it looked to me like he was caught out by the peloton splitting on the approach so any chances of a consolation stage, if he was planning one, were pretty much gone before the climb started.

calvjones

3. Why oh why did I give my ONCE Giant TCR to my brother?

mididoctors

Cumulonimbus wrote:

Think he was a bit fortunate in 2008 in that Contador wasnt there and Andy Schleck was a bit too young. From what i remember Schleck looked like he could have stayed with sastre on the Alpe - of Schleck's eventual 11:30 ish deficit, 7:30 came on the hautacam when he faded badly towards the end through not eating enough. Well done to Sastre though, 2008 was his best chance and he took it.

IMO he was off the pace at this year's tour because of his efforts in the Giro. On the big mountain stage to Le Grand Bornand he would have lost time on the best riders anyway but i think he suffered badly from puncturing and having no support at all to change the wheel? After that i think he gave up. On Ventoux it looked to me like he was caught out by the peloton splitting on the approach so any chances of a consolation stage, if he was planning one, were pretty much gone before the climb started.

+1

2008 was evans and sastre's one chance of winning the tour... sastre with excellent team support seized that chance.

dennisn

frenchfighter wrote:

Sastre has had six top 10 Tour finishes. That is pretty damn good by anyone's standards.

Someone help me. I agree with FF. Looks like the end is in sight.