Can Cav win the Worlds?

paulcuthbert
paulcuthbert Posts: 1,016
edited August 2009 in Pro race
Is Mark Cavendish in the Worlds to win next month? Do you think he has a chance?

I think his win at Milan-San Remo proves that he can win the Worlds. Not to mention the fact that he has been practically unbeatable in a sprint this year...

What do you think?
The most painful climb in Northern Ireland http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs200.snc1/6776_124247198694_548863694_2335754_8016178_n.jpg

Comments

  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    This year, no. MS-R is easy all way until the Cipressa and the Poggo, the Worlds is up and down for 7 hours non-stop. Too hard for Cav.

    Next year, yes. I read somewhere that the Melbourne course is the easiest one since Zolder.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,541
    Not a chance this year. The course is far too hard for Cavendish to be in contention at the end.
  • teagar
    teagar Posts: 2,100
    paulcuthbert wrote:
    Is Mark Cavendish in the Worlds to win next month? Do you think he has a chance?

    I think his win at Milan-San Remo proves that he can win the Worlds. Not to mention the fact that he has been practically unbeatable in a sprint this year...

    What do you think?

    The Belgian rule is anyone who can win Flanders can win a World Champ, rather than Milian-San Remo.
    Note: the above post is an opinion and not fact. It might be a lie.
  • doddy178
    doddy178 Posts: 66
    definatly not this year, but theres Melbourne and copenhagen comming up, not sure how flat Copenhagen is though.

    Also, London 2012 perhaps?
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,252
    I'd say no, definitely not, but I've said that on at least three occasions this year when he's gone on to win.

    Remember his - 'Who said, Internet forum people' comment.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Tusher
    Tusher Posts: 2,762
    No! No!

    If he wins the Worlds (and I doubt this is the course for him anyway), then he will be smitten by THE CURSE OF THE RAINBOW JERSEY whereby every sort of bad luck will descend on him and he'll win nothing at all in 2010.
  • andrewgturnbull
    andrewgturnbull Posts: 3,861
    Hi there.

    Its hard to see Cavendish winning the Worlds RR against the stronger nations with more riders in the race. He'd need help from others in his trade team. Which puts British Cycling in a difficult position...

    BC chose to exile Tom Southam, Charlie Wegelius and John Herrety for helping the Italians at the 2005 Worlds, so how could they countenance Cavendish getting his chequebook out while riding in their jersey?

    Cheers, Andy
    http://www.andyturnbull.co.uk
    http://www.stirlingtri.co.uk
  • andrew_s
    andrew_s Posts: 2,511
    doddy178 wrote:
    ... copenhagen comming up, not sure how flat Copenhagen is though.
    Considering that the highest point in Denmark is on one of the big bridges (radio masts aside), I think you can say pretty flat.
    "In Denmark, the wind are our hills" [sic]
    andrewgturnbull wrote:
    Its hard to see Cavendish winning the Worlds RR against the stronger nations with more riders in the race.
    Britain is on the maximum 9 riders this time, largely courtesy of Mr Cavendish's stack of UCI points. By contrast, France and the Netherlands only get 6 riders.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,252
    andrewgturnbull wrote:
    BC chose to exile Tom Southam, Charlie Wegelius and John Herrety for helping the Italians at the 2005 Worlds, so how could they countenance Cavendish getting his chequebook out while riding in their jersey?

    CW still seems to be out of favour - the only Continental Pro that I can think of that isn't in the provisional squad of 14.

    For those who missed it - the 13 riders that attended the GB training camp were:

    Cavendish
    Millar
    Froome
    Hammond
    Thomas
    Lloyd
    Stannard
    Cummings
    R Downing
    Bellis
    Swift
    Hunt
    Fleeman

    (The 14th is Wiggins who was having a well earned rest)

    Source: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cavendi ... ining-camp
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • chriskempton
    chriskempton Posts: 1,245
    No,it's too hilly.

    20x8 mile laps with 245m climbing each time round :shock:

    End of.
  • paulcuthbert
    paulcuthbert Posts: 1,016
    chriskempton wrote:
    No,it's too hilly.

    20x8 mile laps with 245m climbing each time round :shock:

    End of.

    Ok. Did NOT know that. Point taken. Yeah, Cav couldn't hack that I don't think...
    The most painful climb in Northern Ireland http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs200.snc1/6776_124247198694_548863694_2335754_8016178_n.jpg
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    I seem to recall reading a year or so back that BC have a "Project Rainbow Jersey" which is to make sure they're in a position to help Cav win the World Championships RR as soon as a suitable course comes round. As others have said, Melbourne and Copenhagen should allow them to put their plan into action.
  • Le Commentateur
    Le Commentateur Posts: 4,099
    Too hilly for Cav, but perhaps perfect for Pooley.
    Un uomo solo al commando
  • bikerZA
    bikerZA Posts: 314
    Not this year. But there will be plenty of other chances for him.
    cyclecomparison.com
  • cougie
    cougie Posts: 22,512
    Never say never !
  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    andrewgturnbull wrote:
    Hi there.

    Its hard to see Cavendish winning the Worlds RR against the stronger nations with more riders in the race.

    Small point - but GB have the maximum 9 riders going to the World's this year. Some of the 'big' nations actually have less riders.
  • teagar
    teagar Posts: 2,100
    Pokerface wrote:
    andrewgturnbull wrote:
    Hi there.

    Its hard to see Cavendish winning the Worlds RR against the stronger nations with more riders in the race.

    Small point - but GB have the maximum 9 riders going to the World's this year. Some of the 'big' nations actually have less riders.

    I think in a tough hilly course like this one the difference between 9 or 6 riders is smaller than on a flatter course.
    Note: the above post is an opinion and not fact. It might be a lie.
  • squired
    squired Posts: 1,153
    Maybe Wiggins could do something in the WC road race this year?

    Isn't the London Olympic road course built for Cav (virtually hill free), unless the UCI manages to get them to change it - as I seem to recall has been suggested?
  • teagar
    teagar Posts: 2,100
    squired wrote:
    Maybe Wiggins could do something in the WC road race this year?

    Isn't the London Olympic road course built for Cav (virtually hill free), unless the UCI manages to get them to change it - as I seem to recall has been suggested?

    Can't see how they could change it too much. Surely the course has to be in and around London so it'll never be that hilly?
    Note: the above post is an opinion and not fact. It might be a lie.
  • cougie
    cougie Posts: 22,512
    What is the RR course ?

    I saw the ITU tri in Hyde Park saturday - they were rehearsing things for 2012 - but they didnt have the full cycling course available - they couldnt get all the road closures.

    I'd think the Oly RR course would be a smallish lap somewhere - must have some kind of hill on it or it'll be deadly dull ?
  • teagar
    teagar Posts: 2,100
    cougie wrote:
    What is the RR course ?

    I saw the ITU tri in Hyde Park saturday - they were rehearsing things for 2012 - but they didnt have the full cycling course available - they couldnt get all the road closures.

    I'd think the Oly RR course would be a smallish lap somewhere - must have some kind of hill on it or it'll be deadly dull ?

    People never remember the olympic race - only the result.
    Note: the above post is an opinion and not fact. It might be a lie.
  • nick hanson
    nick hanson Posts: 1,655
    Pokerface wrote:
    andrewgturnbull wrote:
    Hi there.

    Its hard to see Cavendish winning the Worlds RR against the stronger nations with more riders in the race.

    Small point - but GB have the maximum 9 riders going to the World's this year. Some of the 'big' nations actually have less riders.
    andrew_s has already stated this
    so many cols,so little time!
  • schweiz
    schweiz Posts: 1,644
    I wouldn't rule out Cav too quickly. There are two hills on the circuit, both about 100m climb over 2km which is 5%. I saw Cav on Col des Mosses during stage 15 on the way to Verbier. Col des Mosses is 19km averaging 5.5%. After 14km on a section that is 7.5% he was puffing and looked like a beetroot but he was still in the peloton. With the climbs in Mendrisio being short and 10km of downhill or 'flat' on each circuit then he may have enough time to recover and have the legs to stick with it. I think where he will struggle is not having a team round him to protect him, control the pace and bring him to the front when it matters. If the peloton work in the last few laps to pull in any break and he can work his way to towards the front he could be in with a chance even without the CHTC train.
    VN BMC Cube SS
    http://app.strava.com/athletes/30000

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