Met Office cools summer forecast

Jamey

You will need a brolly on holiday in the UK in August - the Met Office is issuing a revised forecast for more unsettled weather well into the month.

It is a far cry from the "barbecue summer" it predicted back in April.

...But the organisation has defended its record, saying people have already forgotten the hot weather experienced across many parts of Britain in June.

It also highlights the absence of the sort of major floods that blighted 2007 and 2008; and the largely fine weather for the Wimbledon tennis championship

Full story - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8173533.stm

Great... So there were no 'major floods' and the tennis finished on time. Must be a roaring success then.

/Looks out window

soy_sauce

i never believe the Met Office anyway. it normal that we can have four seasons weather within the same day up here in Scotland.

it has been really sunny today so far.

Roastie

FFS. This annoys me. So many people a) so easily forget the good weather we had (instead complaining that it was too hot) and b) seem to believe that weather forecasting is a simple, exact science!

Personally, given what they are working with, I think the Met does a fairly good job. Sadly (I believe) the average lay person has such a complete lack of understanding for science to even comprehend that science is indeed not exact. :evil:

sarajoy

This is the UK, it's always unstable!

We have a couple of super-hot summers every now and then, hosepipe bans and the like, and start to believe it's the norm, then start to get wee'd off when it goes back to its usual fluctuating drabness.

As the link says, there has been some lovely weather in June and into July, I can't say I feel hard-done-by.

cjcp

What's the point in a long range forecast anyway? Does anything actually depend on it?

And if they're talking about a "BBQ summer", and that we're forgetting June, doesn't "summer", strictly speaking, start on 21 June? If so, you can't really take June into consideration.

cjcp

Roastie wrote:

Sadly (I believe) the average lay person has such a complete lack of understanding for science to even comprehend that science is indeed not exact. :evil:

This is me.

il_principe

Forecast aside it's been pretty miserable once again. I dunno why we bother calling this "summer"


*Moan, whinge, grumble.

cjcp

Il Principe wrote:

Forecast aside it's been pretty miserable once again. I dunno why we bother calling this "summer"


*Moan, whinge, grumble.

That's why it's called a "British summer".

Headhuunter

I thought that if the winter was nasty we were guaranteed a nice summer? Certainly hasn't happened this year!

robmanic1

Bloody sick of this, ordered a proper waterproof jacket and going to get on with it!

Jamey

We always seem to get a nice spell in late spring, then rubbish and then another nice spell around September time (just when the nights are really starting to draw in).

I just wish the bit in between the two nice spells we get every year would at least be a little less windy and maybe (just maybe) actually contain some sun instead of relying on humidity to make it feel warm and make the temperature part of forecasts look like summer (misleadingly).

Fireblade96

Fireblade's Forecast:

August 3-17: Much less wind but cool and wet.
Augst 19-31: Summer returns ! Long hot days, little if any rain - right up until the Bank Holiday when gales and torrential rain will sweep the land.

I'll be resurrecting this thread in early September to see how accurate my forecast was. It's based on my two most reliable indicators:
3-17: I'm sailing, to the West Country & back
19-31: I'm outta here. It's always sunny here when I decide I've had enough and clear off for a couple of weeks.
In fact, if you all want to have a whip round and send me on holiday somewhere warm, I can pretty much guarantee that the sun will come out as soon as I get onto the bus to Heathrow.

biondino

Roastie wrote:

FFS. This annoys me. So many people a) so easily forget the good weather we had (instead complaining that it was too hot) and b) seem to believe that weather forecasting is a simple, exact science!

Personally, given what they are working with, I think the Met does a fairly good job. Sadly (I believe) the average lay person has such a complete lack of understanding for science to even comprehend that science is indeed not exact. :evil:

+11111

Nick6891

i dont think people realise how unpredictable our weather is, they do a pretty good job at forecasting normally but obviously its almost impossible to predict what the weather is going to be like in a couple of months time

robmanic1

Nick6891 wrote:

i dont think people realise how unpredictable our weather is, they do a pretty good job at forecasting normally but obviously its almost impossible to predict what the weather is going to be like in a couple of months time

.... or even yesterday

cjcp

Nick6891 wrote:

i dont think people realise how unpredictable our weather is, they do a pretty good job at forecasting normally but obviously its almost impossible to predict what the weather is going to be like in a couple of months time

Which begs the question why they even bother.

biondino

Because people have a sense of entitlement that they DESERVE to know what the weather in two months is like. Vicious circle. Poor weathermen.

il_principe

The beeb are useless. Metcheck is far more reliable. No idea why that would be as they all get their data from the same place...

robmanic1

Still, some of the weather girls are qute nice to look at (not to be confused with THE weather girls - 90's pop chubsters).

ExeterSimon

The Met Office have been crap since they moved to Exeter.

Still we do have the lovely Emily Wood presenting our weather occasionally and no matter how bad it is she always makes it feel glorious outside.

lost_in_thought

biondino wrote:

Roastie wrote:

FFS. This annoys me. So many people a) so easily forget the good weather we had (instead complaining that it was too hot) and b) seem to believe that weather forecasting is a simple, exact science!

Personally, given what they are working with, I think the Met does a fairly good job. Sadly (I believe) the average lay person has such a complete lack of understanding for science to even comprehend that science is indeed not exact. :evil:

+11111

+lots more.

My family all have very weather-dependent jobs, in fact, arguably some of the most weather-dependent jobs you can get, and they aim to get what is referred to in aviation circles as a consensus forecast - ie only believe one source of weather forecasting if another corroborates it. Whether this is a good idea or completely irrelevant, I don't know.

Nonetheless, this summer is definitely better than last summer.

Christophe3967

cjcp wrote:

Il Principe wrote:

Forecast aside it's been pretty miserable once again. I dunno why we bother calling this "summer"


*Moan, whinge, grumble.

That's why it's called a "British summer".

Global warming. Mark my words. 8)

cjcp

lost_in_thought wrote:

Nonetheless, this summer is definitely better than last summer.

Hmm, not sure about that. I think it's just less cr@p. :P

lost_in_thought

cjcp wrote:

lost_in_thought wrote:

Nonetheless, this summer is definitely better than last summer.

Hmm, not sure about that. I think it's just less cr@p. :P

Well, yes, that's another way to look at it! I prefer the 'glass half full' approach!

Kieran_Burns

I think this Summer has been GREAT!


The rain has been particuarly warm

rolf_f

Maybe blame the idiot press for reporting it wrongly. They only said long hot summer 'on the balance of probabilities'. Means it was only about 65/35 odds of it actually happening that way. Tends to be the press that turn everything into black and white.

Mind you, our local BBC weather forecaster made a plank of himself this evening by completely failing to understand statistics at the most basic level. His theory was that a damp July was unlikely as we'd had two in succession already and 3 damp Julys had occurred in succession only 3 times before in recorded history. Presumably he also thinks that if you throw 3 heads in a row, the fourth throw is more likely to be tails. He's a nice chap but he doesn't help the cause spouting cobblers.....

Christophe3967

ExeterSimon wrote:

The Met Office have been crap since they moved to Exeter..

But they moved from Bracknell. And having worked in both places I feel reasonably well qualified to say that Exeter is a big improvement. Until you need a haircut....

FeynmanC

I'd be happy if it would just make up it's mind!

I left to walk the dogs in sun, as I got to the end of my road the heavens opened and it felt like a bucket of water was chucked over us - for 20 minutes- and as we got back home the sun came back out again.

After drying the dogs, and the house after all 4 of them shook several times before I could get towels on them, I'm now late to start riding the 25 miles to work.

I may have to convince the Lady to let me get some mudguards for the Defy too, as the showers are making the roads wet most of the time. I did get the Endura Road Overshoes though :twisted:

Paulie W

What's the world coming too when you cant have a good moan about the weather and weather forecasters without more forgiving folk with a much clearer perspective on the world critcising you for it.

I know that forecasters didnt really say that we were guaranteed a blazing hot dry summer and I know that the 'media' blew what they did say out of all proportion (and no doubt mis-reported it in places too). I also know that long range forecasting is not so much an inexact science as almost complete and utter guesswork.

But inspite of all this I had my expectations raised of long hot summer evenings on which I could ride forever and not feel like stopping except to drink a pint of good local cider sat on a bench beside a gently babbling river bought from a beautiful country pub.

As I battled through the wind and torrential rain yesterday evening all I dreamed of was an open fire and a mug of cocoa and the river I cycled 'through' wasnt so much babbling as a raging torrent sweeping all before it!

secretsam

If it's any consequence, the French treat their equivalent of the Met office with equal disdain, mostly because they are also no more accurate than a hippy with a twig and a pig's bladder...