Can Cav get beaten?

GreenJersey
GreenJersey Posts: 22
edited July 2009 in Pro race
I was just wondering if any of you think Cavendish can getbeaten?
I don't but you probably know more then me :D
I'm new so post something! :)

Comments

  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,812
    He can be beaten, there's a lot of variables what go into a sprint, However, he's the best around at the mo so it's gona be tough,
  • Chip \'oyler
    Chip \'oyler Posts: 2,323
    Mmmmm. The post topic says can Cav get beaten. Yet the Poll asks who is the best sprinter? :?:
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  • Another daft question: the record for tour stage wins is 34 by Merckx (Eddy, not Axel). Can Cav win 25 more TdF stages? He's only a youngster.
  • teagar
    teagar Posts: 2,100
    Who voted Boonen?!?!


    I know I'm a big Boonen fan but it certainly wasn't me!
    Note: the above post is an opinion and not fact. It might be a lie.
  • Here's the number of Tour de France stages those guys have won and their respective ages.

    McEwen - 12 stage wins - 37 years old
    Cavendish - 10 stage wins - 24 years old
    Hushovd - 7 stage wins - 31 years old
    Boonen - 6 stage wins - 28 years old
    Petacchi - 4 stage wins - 35 years old
    Bennati - 2 stage wins - 28 years old
    Farrar - 0 stage wins - 25 years old
    Ciolek - 0 stage wins - 22 years old


    Cavendish has 15 Grand tour stage wins in total but still has a long way to go before he matches McEwen (24 wins) and Petacchi (44 wins).

    Has time on his side though. :wink:
  • kozzo
    kozzo Posts: 182
    I was just wondering if any of you think Cavendish can getbeaten?
    I don't but you probably know more then me :D
    I'm new so post something! :)

    Cavendish alone or with Team Columbia?
  • Slow Downcp
    Slow Downcp Posts: 3,041
    How about Renshaw - he got closest yesterday? :wink:
    Carlsberg don't make cycle clothing, but if they did it would probably still not be as good as Assos
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Here's the number of Tour de France stages those guys have won and their respective ages.

    McEwen - 12 stage wins - 37 years old
    Cavendish - 10 stage wins - 24 years old
    Hushovd - 7 stage wins - 31 years old
    Boonen - 6 stage wins - 28 years old
    Petacchi - 4 stage wins - 35 years old
    Bennati - 2 stage wins - 28 years old
    Farrar - 0 stage wins - 25 years old
    Ciolek - 0 stage wins - 22 years old


    Cavendish has 15 Grand tour stage wins in total but still has a long way to go before he matches McEwen (24 wins) and Petacchi (44 wins).

    Has time on his side though. :wink:

    And even further to go to match Super Mario's 57 GT stage victories.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • Tom Butcher
    Tom Butcher Posts: 3,830
    For pure speed I think Cav and Petacchi are the top men - with Cav having a better jump - Farrar is up there too but seems to lack the bottle/bike handling/positional sense to get the results.

    it's a hard life if you don't weaken.
  • bobtbuilder
    bobtbuilder Posts: 1,537
    Who voted Boonen?!?!

    Come on - who is faster along a white line than Boonen??? It's Tommeke by a nose! :lol:
  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    Another daft question: the record for tour stage wins is 34 by Merckx (Eddy, not Axel). Can Cav win 25 more TdF stages? He's only a youngster.

    He CAN. But not sure he WILL.

    It will be harder each year to dominate the way he has. Other teams may start to build lead-out trains similar to Columbia's to launch their sprint men off the front. No guarantee that Columbia will continue to focus on sprint wins and maintain THEIR train in coming years.

    He could crash, get slower, others may improve, etc, etc.

    Too many variables to say for certain, but if he gets 5 wins a year - would only take him 5 years to beat that record. But I think it may be wishful thinking.
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    Pokerface wrote:
    Another daft question: the record for tour stage wins is 34 by Merckx (Eddy, not Axel). Can Cav win 25 more TdF stages? He's only a youngster.

    He CAN. But not sure he WILL.

    It will be harder each year to dominate the way he has. Other teams may start to build lead-out trains similar to Columbia's to launch their sprint men off the front. No guarantee that Columbia will continue to focus on sprint wins and maintain THEIR train in coming years.

    He could crash, get slower, others may improve, etc, etc.

    Too many variables to say for certain, but if he gets 5 wins a year - would only take him 5 years to beat that record. But I think it may be wishful thinking.

    Undoubtedly the Columbia train make Cav's job a hell of a lot easier, but without it I think he'd still have won several stages this year. His jump is so good that I could see him coming off Hushovd or Farrar's wheel to win stages even without the best lead out train in the Tour.

    Cav's positioning in the final 500 metres is exceptional, he hardly ever gets boxed in, and seems able to launch himself through the tiniest of gaps to sprint for the line.
  • calvjones
    calvjones Posts: 3,850
    I think a couple of years of this and Columbia HTC will have milked it for all its worth, PR wise. Their lack of ANY GC challenge this year went unremarked due to Evans & Menchov, but you can't be considered a 'top' TdF team outside of Italy without GC ambitions I reckon. So maybe less of a train in future years?
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  • Jez mon
    Jez mon Posts: 3,809
    Should think Columbia will keep their train mostly because it's a great way to get guaranteed exposure. Hopefully as he gets older he can win multiple green jerseys and even a ciclamino one. Perhaps if he's feeling adventurous a blue jersey in the Vuelta.

    Hopefully he could win some more classics but we will see how he develops as a rider.
    You live and learn. At any rate, you live
  • thamacdaddy
    thamacdaddy Posts: 590
    calvjones wrote:
    I think a couple of years of this and Columbia HTC will have milked it for all its worth, PR wise. Their lack of ANY GC challenge this year went unremarked due to Evans & Menchov, but you can't be considered a 'top' TdF team outside of Italy without GC ambitions I reckon. So maybe less of a train in future years?

    Totally. Unlike the other teams with sprinters columbia had very little GC with probably Kirchen or monfort being the allrounders perhaps.

    Its obvious though Tony Martin is the next big thing for columbia and when they need to build a team around both sprint and GC maybe then Cav is left with a lead out train of 3 or possibly 4 and will this make a bigger difference. There is always with great success a limit to the amount of time that success lasts in the same way i.e. the mix of the team changes may require an adjustment in tactics or the way it works. You see it in football all the time and it is no different here. I am sure wherever cav goes while he is young he will be able to work with a decent lead out and do really well but how he reacts when the train isn't so good or he doesn't have the same level of raw power will be where you see how truely great he can be.
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,812
    Where does he go for the rest of the season? Tour of Britain? Will he go for Paris Tours just to round it off completely?

    And in the future, will he stay as a sprinter or will he try and turn himself into a Classics rider like Boonen has, or more of an all rounder like Freire.

    Incidentally, what's the record in the last few years (since, say the 90s) for wins in a career? I think Robbie Mac is up near 150, and Cav's got 50 or so at the moment.
  • thamacdaddy
    thamacdaddy Posts: 590
    Cav will never go the way of o grady or boonen etc think he will see out a career of sprinting like McCwen or zabel.

    HE got a few tours left )ireland I think) but no doubt now he is getting big money offers for the post TdF criteriums round europe which is where he will make major money for the next few weeks.
  • He can be beaten, there's a lot of variables what go into a sprint, However, he's the best around at the mo so it's gona be tough,
    Garmin tried that in the tour and they didn't even get close, especially on the Champs-Élysées
  • Pokerface
    Pokerface Posts: 7,960
    He can be beaten, there's a lot of variables what go into a sprint, However, he's the best around at the mo so it's gona be tough,
    Garmin tried that in the tour and they didn't even get close, especially on the Champs-Élysées

    The only reason the Champs sprint wasn't a contest, is because Garmin bolloxed up the final corner and cut off everyone. Giving Cav and Renshaw open water to the finish line.

    Might have been different if they could have actually held their line round that last corner....
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,241
    Incidentally, what's the record in the last few years (since, say the 90s) for wins in a career? I think Robbie Mac is up near 150, and Cav's got 50 or so at the moment.

    Cipollini had 191 wins according to Wikipedia. Zabel's got to be up there too.

    And as for the poll, Andre Greipel's better than half those listed.
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  • RichN95 wrote:
    Incidentally, what's the record in the last few years (since, say the 90s) for wins in a career? I think Robbie Mac is up near 150, and Cav's got 50 or so at the moment.

    Cipollini had 191 wins according to Wikipedia. Zabel's got to be up there too.

    And as for the poll, Andre Greipel's better than half those listed.

    zabel has 192 according to wikipedia
  • mandie
    mandie Posts: 218
    Pokerface wrote:
    He can be beaten, there's a lot of variables what go into a sprint, However, he's the best around at the mo so it's gona be tough,
    Garmin tried that in the tour and they didn't even get close, especially on the Champs-Élysées

    The only reason the Champs sprint wasn't a contest, is because Garmin bolloxed up the final corner and cut off everyone. Giving Cav and Renshaw open water to the finish line.

    Might have been different if they could have actually held their line round that last corner....

    Agreed, but if my memories are correct the sprint on the Champs-Élysées is often won by a surprisingly big margin. A combination of the final corner, the uphill drag and " I've lost the wheel - sod it"??
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  • mandie wrote:
    Pokerface wrote:
    He can be beaten, there's a lot of variables what go into a sprint, However, he's the best around at the mo so it's gona be tough,
    Garmin tried that in the tour and they didn't even get close, especially on the Champs-Élysées

    The only reason the Champs sprint wasn't a contest, is because Garmin bolloxed up the final corner and cut off everyone. Giving Cav and Renshaw open water to the finish line.

    Might have been different if they could have actually held their line round that last corner....

    Agreed, but if my memories are correct the sprint on the Champs-Élysées is often won by a surprisingly big margin. A combination of the final corner, the uphill drag and " I've lost the wheel - sod it"??

    Wouldn't the uphill drag favour somebody like thor Hushovd more than cav even without as good a lead out