Stage 20 - Montélimar - Mont-Ventoux - SPOILER

Mettan

Introduction

So, the day has arrived - stage 20 is a 167km ride from Montélimar to the legendary Mont Ventoux. It's the penultimate stage on this years tour, as the riders will be reaching Paris tommorow.

The Climbs

Côte de Citelle 5.2 km, avg. 3.9 %, Catégorie 3
Col d'Ey, 6.7 km, avg. 4.8 %, Catégorie 3
Col de Fontaube, 4.7 km, avg. 4.2 %, Catégorie 4
Col des Abeilles, 7.7 km, avg. 4 %, Catégorie 3
Mont Ventoux, 21.1 km, avg. 7.6 %, Hors Catégorie

The Profile



This stage will decide the general classification - Alberto, with a 4:11 lead over Andy, looks fairly safe to stay in Yellow today (and win the Tour) - Andy, should manage to cement his 2nd place overall today (although Lance will attempt to take 2nd spot). Frank, Brad and Kloden will essentially be battling it out for 3rd place overall, but with Frank being a superior climber to Lance so far (this tour), Lance's 3rd spot is by no means safe. This stage, represents a hilly approach to the Ventoux - the Profile above should give you a feel for the stage. Mont Ventoux, itself, is a mamouth climb with ~ 22 km at an avg 7.6 % grad - even worse, for nearly half of it, the riders will be tottering up 9-10 % gradients. Much of the climb is exposed, so the riders could face a windy ascent. Expect attacks on the Ventoux, not least from the Schleck brothers - who will manage to stay with them? - Lance will probably also attack, and Sastre might try and redeem something from this years tour - it will be a fascinating and exciting end to the days racing.

paulcuthbert

I really hope Lance finally beats the Ventoux!

No more 2nd places Lance...

knedlicky

paulcuthbert wrote:

I really hope Lance finally beats the Ventoux!
No more 2nd places Lance...

I really hope the Ventoux once again beats Lance!
With the bumpy bits beforehand and the favourites watching each other, the winner could actually be a member of a breakaway, if they are far enough in advance of the favourites at the bottom of Ventoux.
If Sastre is serious in his ambition, and able, I imagine he’ll wait till the actual climb. And I’d like to see Frank S. go with him. I think that would cause Astana a dilemma.

RichN95.

Here's what will happen. Evans and Sastre will attack early. Later the Schlecks will attack together. Only Contador will follow.

Surprisingly Bruyneel follows AC in the car rather than LA. Unfortunately, while updating his Twitter while driving he ploughs into the three leaders putting them out of the race. Pat McQuaid later says 'it's just one of those things'.

Meanwhile, Brad Wiggins, inspired by Tom Simpson's shrine and some blokes playing 'A town called malice' on their stereo attacks, Nibali follows. Armstrong is dropped. Kloden stays with him and takes the opportunity to phone his wife.

Phil Liggett, having used up all the Armstrong + Moonscape metaphors he can muster, says this is a masterful tactical move by Lance.

On the line Nibali beats Wiggins across the line. In his interview with Wiggins, Ned Boulting mentions that The Specials are playing at a Belgian beer festival in nearby Carpentras. Wiggins responds "Really. F*** the Tour. The F**king Specials!"

In Paris, Nibali wins the Tour and as he climbs the podium everyone says "Ah. So that's what he looks like"

Moomaloid

my perfect day would be to see Wiggo attack half way up, Bertie to go with him and then drag him to the top, getting Wiggo on the podium.

I can dream!

iainf72

paulcuthbert wrote:

I really hope Lance finally beats the Ventoux!

No more 2nd places Lance...

Based on the evidence of his climbing thus far this Tour he's not got much hope, has he?

iainf72

Gale force winds on Ventoux today.

That has the capacity to ruin things.

symo

iainf72 wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

I really hope Lance finally beats the Ventoux!

No more 2nd places Lance...

Based on the evidence of his climbing thus far this Tour he's not got much hope, has he?

How very dare you, he's 37 you know.

Mettan

The BBC just had a nice 10 min article about the Ventoux - one of the reporters riding up it etc - stopped at Tommy's shrine - good vibe about the piece and cycling in general. Plenty of Rapha tops about.

Doobz

iainf72 wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

I really hope Lance finally beats the Ventoux!

No more 2nd places Lance...

Based on the evidence of his climbing thus far this Tour he's not got much hope, has he?

Lets hope so 8)

I hope its exiting tho. Stuck in work and will be bored to death.
Are we just going to see contador chase every break and take it safe?

iainf72

I'd expect Andy and Frank to attack. Contador to go with them. Then a battle emerging between Bradleeeeee / Lance and Frank for 3'rd with Klodi saying into his radio "WTF I am, chopped liver?"

Eurostar

Mettan wrote:

The BBC just had a nice 10 min article about the Ventoux - one of the reporters riding up it etc - stopped at Tommy's shrine - good vibe about the piece and cycling in general. Plenty of Rapha tops about.

Amazing! What programme?

Lance's twitter says 500,000 spectators will be there.

BigSpecs

Eurostar wrote:

Mettan wrote:

The BBC just had a nice 10 min article about the Ventoux - one of the reporters riding up it etc - stopped at Tommy's shrine - good vibe about the piece and cycling in general. Plenty of Rapha tops about.

Amazing! What programme?

Lance's twitter says 500,000 spectators will be there.

It was on BBC breakfast with Mike Bushell. He fell off twice at the top trying to ride up to the camera for the sign off. It was a good piece. He rode up once from Bedoin (sp?) but the they were mainly focussing on the Rapha.cc riders trying to ride all three routes/ ascents in one day. By the early evening (and third ascent) it was so windy riders were getting blown off the road and off their bikes. Crikey! Looking forward to today...

Harry Hill

Apparently is so windy on top that the comentators and all the bigger vehicles have had to come back down again!

Gale force . . . but its a long time between now and the riders getting there. Anything could happen . . . .

:-)

petejuk

The wind will be used to great effect today: there will be an early breakaway containing Cav amongst some French riders and some from the Skil Shimano Team. Cav will sprint for the early points bonus and drop off. A second break will come on the third climb with the help of the wind and alienate most of Astana with only Kloeden and Armstrong in there. Wiggo and the Schleck Brothers make the break and try to get up the road pushing the pace. Wiggo clings to them like glue, as does Armstrong. Kloeden cracks a quarter of the way up Ventoux, Armstrong cracks halfway up and only the Schlecks and Wiggo make it to the line.
Contador will have a nightmare day as he tries reel the break in. He suffers a puncture and a big crash in the peleton slows it all down.
On the podium will be Andy, Wiggo and Frank.
Cav will make it on the Champs Elysees and claim enough points for the green. Hushovd will have a woeful day.

Heres hoping.....

Kléber

iainf72 wrote:

Gale force winds on Ventoux today.

That has the capacity to ruin things.

I see options:
a) the wind worries riders who try to attack so the riders huddle together, fearing that the slightest move could cost them a lot of energy.
b) the riders go ballistic on the main section from St Esteve to Chalet Reynard knowing that any gaps opened up here could be impossible for a chaser to close down once they are tired and exposed to the headwind. This is what Valverde did in the Dauphine.

The problem is that these choices are pretty much opposed.

Harry Hill

PhilLiggett

For the first time all TV will not be on the finish line. We commentate from the town of Vaison la Romaine - 30kms away

Kléber

Yes, the town of Vaison la Romaine (appropriately with lots of Roman ruins) is used as the media/race centre today as it is too hard to put much of the race's infrastructure up on the mountain.

Kléber

"they're having trouble keeping the crowd barriers up" says Cycle Sport's Ed Picking. It is very windy up there, "like a jet engine" says CS's photographer. If it's this windy, will the race make it to the summit?

aurelio_-_banned

iainf72 wrote:

Gale force winds on Ventoux today. That has the capacity to ruin things.

Quite so, especially if it is a headwind over most of the last 5km or so, which is usually the only part that they actually race these days!

greeny12

Surely a bigger worry is the sheer size of the crowd, if Lance's estimate is even close to true?

Half a million souls, many of them feeling the effects of a day boozing in the sunshine, are hardly conducive to tactical cycle racing. I can't see how the riders will be able to do anything but single file 'follow your leader' through most of the upper slopes, and the risk of a rider being knocked off or otherwise majorly compromised is huge.

Very worried about this afternoon now...

RichN95.

Eurostar wrote:

Mettan wrote:

The BBC just had a nice 10 min article about the Ventoux - one of the reporters riding up it etc - stopped at Tommy's shrine - good vibe about the piece and cycling in general. Plenty of Rapha tops about.

Amazing! What programme?

Lance's twitter says 500,000 spectators will be there.

There's a three minute version on their website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/cycling/8168603.stm

takethehighroad

Tim Lovejoy supporting Bradley on Twitter. Nice to see "normal" people getting interested in the cycling thanks to the Brits

aurelio_-_banned

greeny12 wrote:

Surely a bigger worry is the sheer size of the crowd, if Lance's estimate is even close to true? Half a million souls, many of them feeling the effects of a day boozing in the sunshine, are hardly conducive to tactical cycle racing.

As I said in an earlier thread...

These fantastic roadside spectaor figures for the Tour always make me laugh. Half a million people spread over both sides of the road for the whole length of the Ventoux (which is 22 km in length) would mean almost 12 people per metre on each side of the road (23 people per metre in total) from the top to the bottom of the climb! I would say that a more realistic figure would be 50 - 100,000 which is still a lot of people.

greeny12

aurelio wrote:

greeny12 wrote:

Surely a bigger worry is the sheer size of the crowd, if Lance's estimate is even close to true? Half a million souls, many of them feeling the effects of a day boozing in the sunshine, are hardly conducive to tactical cycle racing.

As I said in an earlier thread...

These fantastic roadside spectaor figures for the Tour always make me laugh. Half a million people spread over both sides of the road for the whole length of the Ventoux (which is 22 km in length) would mean almost 12 people per metre on each side of the road (23 people per metre in total) from the top to the bottom of the climb! I would say that a more realistic figure would be 50 - 100,000 which is still a lot of people.

You're probably closer to the mark on numbers, but even then my point about 'crowd trouble' is still valid, I think?

Airmiles

Good spot ianf

35km/h with gusts of 75... in the valleys. Dread to think what it'll be like at the top! :shock:

http://france.meteofrance.com/france/me ... ept/DEPT84

What does AC weigh? Could give "going backwards" a whole new dimension....

It may be determined by who can use their team best to protect the contenders in the early part of the climb. Ecehlons on MV?


Unless someone risks using the tailwind in the early part to stay away...?

calvjones

aurelio wrote:

greeny12 wrote:

Surely a bigger worry is the sheer size of the crowd, if Lance's estimate is even close to true? Half a million souls, many of them feeling the effects of a day boozing in the sunshine, are hardly conducive to tactical cycle racing.

As I said in an earlier thread...

These fantastic roadside spectaor figures for the Tour always make me laugh. Half a million people spread over both sides of the road for the whole length of the Ventoux (which is 22 km in length) would mean almost 12 people per metre on each side of the road (23 people per metre in total) from the top to the bottom of the climb! I would say that a more realistic figure would be 50 - 100,000 which is still a lot of people.

We did some work looking at the Grand Depart in London. For the economic impact work, TfL were like 'yes, there were about 2.5 million people there'. When it came to the environmental impact (which is of course negatively linked to spectator numbers) they're estimates were significantly lower. Funnily enough. :roll:

blazing_saddles

Gusts of 110kph recorded, so far, at the summit.
Garate group at +8 minutes...

Bakunin

Versus' coverage just started -- Lance has already thrown Contador under the bus.

He refused to answer whether Contador would help him. He stated, the people can see what is going on.

iainf72

It could be interesting - If you're going to attack, you need to do it early before the wind neutralises things (to a degree)

iainf72

Rumours they're considering neutralising the stage due to the wind....