Can downhills make a difference in the GC in next 2 days?

stagehopper

Looking at tomorrow's stage 16, it's an upside W with a big downhill finish for best part of 30km. Stage 17 finishes with 15km downhill but is a sawtooth throughout the stage with maybe 20km out of the 170km flat.

Given Contador's supreme climbing skills, one possible method of attacking him would be to make a move on the downhills either in a mad drop to the finish on Stage 16, or isolating AC on Stage 17 after one of the Cat 1 climbs making it a long hard day and forcing him into that dangerous zone of bonkability.

So who out of the GC contendors has the skill downhill to "give it a go"? How do they rate compared to each other?

donrhummy

It can make a difference but really only if you have a lead going over the top. One good thing for Saxo is that Contador's a pretty poor descender. If Andy has, say 30 seconds going over the top, he can add another 30 or so at the bottom IF he's willing to take risks. Contador's a so-so descender and rarely, if ever takes risks, especially since his horrible accident/coma.

blazing_saddles

Vincenzo Nibali up.
Frank Schleck down.

iainf72

Contador can handle himself fine. Remember when he nicked Paris-Nice from under Rebellin's nose. He attacked uphill but had to ride solo into the finish in Nice including some gnarly descents.

Schleck vs Contador downhill isn't likely to amount to much.

stagehopper

Thought Contador was ok downhill from memory - and there's no one like LL Sanchez close enough to give it a go - but here's a thought what about Mr Wiggins? Maybe Kloden and Armstrong "accidentally" drop their team mate ...

I assume Saxo will try and fire Cancellara up the road on Stage 17 to collect Schleck the younger.

Harry Hill

Landis did it - attacked on the climbs and had a long run into the town finish. Not sure if it was ths long though?

It was how he regained yellow . . . .

iainf72

Harry Hill wrote:

Landis did it - attacked on the climbs and had a long run into the town finish. Not sure if it was ths long though?

It was how he regained yellow . . . .

Landis rode an entire stage across godknows how many mountains. So someone could do something like that. Except that Astana won't allow it.

frenchfighter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVzNFnOx-RA

Contador can descend well. If any of the GC contenders will lose time on a descent I think it will be Lance given his Giro performances. If Cancellara goes over the last climb solo then slows and Andy makes a move late on and gets to his wheel, some serious time can be made for Andy.

afx237vi

There was a stage with a similar profile last year, can't remember where or who won, but Menchov lost time and CVV crashed. Wiggins will be interesting to watch on the downhill - we've never really seen him racing downhill before, but considering that most track riders are fearsome bike handlers, I guess he's gonna be pretty decent.

frenchfighter

afx237vi wrote:

There was a stage with a similar profile last year, can't remember where or who won, but Menchov lost time and CVV crashed. Wiggins will be interesting to watch on the downhill - we've never really seen him racing downhill before, but considering that most track riders are fearsome bike handlers, I guess he's gonna be pretty decent.

Stage 16. He lost about 30secs I think as Cadel really let lose on the descent. CVV lost bout 3mins or so as he crashed.

mididoctors

afx237vi wrote:

There was a stage with a similar profile last year, can't remember where or who won, but Menchov lost time and CVV crashed. Wiggins will be interesting to watch on the downhill - we've never really seen him racing downhill before, but considering that most track riders are fearsome bike handlers, I guess he's gonna be pretty decent.

wiggins is going to be targeted a lot by everyone queuing up behind... there's going to be relentless pressure across the next week....

armstrong is still stuck on that climb to verbier and will be leap frogged a lot.. I also think he has that old man nervousness thing coming on

kloden can descend if he is told to aim for the podium

blazing_saddles

afx237vi wrote:

There was a stage with a similar profile last year, can't remember where or who won, but Menchov lost time and CVV crashed.

Cyril Dessel.

Cumulonimbus

It was this stage. Its almost a direct equivalent, they both came after the second rest day!

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/200 ... s/tour0816

I thi8nk that van de velde crashed but he had been dropped on the climb so may have been taking more risks than he would normally. I think its also the one where Augustyn went off the side.

stagehopper

Anyone remember the splits from the TT in Monaco? Think Wiggins took 6 seconds out of Contador on the descent if that's any indication.

knedlicky

donrhummy wrote:

It can make a difference but really only if you have a lead going over the top.

Not always true but likely so on these St. Bernards - a good lead this time.

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Vincenzo Nibali up.
Frank Schleck down.

Frank first up first, Nibali first down second?

Blazing Saddles wrote:

afx237vi wrote:

There was a stage with a similar profile last year, can't remember where or who won, but Menchov lost time and CVV crashed.

Cyril Dessel.

In front of Casar - this year Le Mevel?

blazing_saddles

Once again, the organisers missed a trick, here. The could have gone over the Colle San Carlo which abuts Le Petite Bernard. 10% average gradient.


Making the profile look like this:



This would have made it extremely easy to break up the Astana train and turn the stage into a contender attack fest.
As it is, they will probably sit back and let a break go, awaiting tomorrow, which does have a really mean finish.

FJS

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Once again, the organisers missed a trick, here. The could have gone over the Colle San Carlo which abuts Le Petite Bernard. 10% average gradient.


Making the profile look like this:



This would have made it extremely easy to break up the Astana train and turn the stage into a contender attack fest.
As it is, they will probably sit back and let a break go, awaiting tomorrow, which does have a really mean finish.

Yes, that's a beast of a climb, similar to the Joux-Plane, a pity they chose not to do that. It might be the roads are a bit too narrow for the Tour. But then I think the Giro has gone over it.

Mettan

How much harder is tommorrows stage relative to today ? Hoping for attacks from Saxo.

Le Commentateur

Mettan wrote:

How much harder is tommorrows stage relative to today ? Hoping for attacks from Saxo.

4 x cat 1 climb, the last two are a bit of a staircase, the penultimate climb being a steeper alternative to the lower half of the Colombier that it joins at the ski village of le Reposoir.

Mettan

Thanks Comm - hoping for firewoks tomorrow - and a bit more comitment in the attacks.

Ocrider

Once again, the organisers missed a trick, here. The could have gone over the Colle San Carlo which abuts Le Petite Bernard. 10% average gradient.

They could even have had the finish in les Arcs, which would have been nice. Gits. :evil:

paulcuthbert

iainf72 wrote:

Harry Hill wrote:

Landis did it - attacked on the climbs and had a long run into the town finish. Not sure if it was ths long though?

It was how he regained yellow . . . .

Landis rode an entire stage across godknows how many mountains. So someone could do something like that. Except that Astana won't allow it.

Landis wasn't clean when he did this...

I'm just waiting for Kreuziger to do something. I really hope he bags a stage! He's not a bad descender, so maybe tomorrow is the day

Alex_Simmons/RST

Descents can clearly make a difference - just ask Beloki.