Col du Grand-Saint-Bernard

Mettan

How does anyone see the next stage shaping up? :

Col du Grand-Saint-Bernard - 24.4 km, avg. 6.2 %, Hors Catégorie
Col du Petit-Saint-Bernard - 22.6 km, avg. 5.1 %, Catégorie 1

Will the GC contenders race on the first hill, or, let a breakway go - alternately, will the GC contenders race on the second hill given a 30 km descent to the end? A strange stage profile in some respects. A day for the GC climbers possibly, but will they attack given the 2 descents.

(This is Not the official Spoiler thread for this stage - just an option to have a natter over the Rest day).

Cumulonimbus

There was a similar stage last year which could provide a guide

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/200 ... s/tour0816

Two big climbs with a long descent to the finish and another hard day to come the day after.

Its difficult to know what will happen really as people's plans for this stage will depend on what they think they can do the stage afterwards, ie how they are going to balance their attacks between the two stages. Andy Schleck is one of the men who really needs to make a move on several mountain stages. He need a lot of time off Armstrong, Wiggins and Kloden from the three mountain stages considering he is likely to lose time in the TT. Maybe he is the most likely to try something later on. As far as beating Contador goes, i dont think that A Schleck will do it but maybe they will try and isolate him, sending first Frank Schleck up the road and then Andy. Maybe this might be better suited to Wednesday's stage although some people might want to hold something back for the TT.

afx237vi

Andy Schleck is the guy who could attack, but whether he will is another question. The Schleck brothers are not exactly renowned for their descending skills.

DaveyL

The day after, even though not a summit finish, looks extremely brutal.

andrew_s

I reckon someone will go for it from the off, more or less. The peloton don't have much of an advantage over a solo rider on proper descents, so there's only the 23 or 24km of false flat (i.e 1.5% climb) between the two cols to defend on.

Mettan

Yes - I suppose I'm just hoping that the Schlecks can still do something in this tour - otherwise, it's a Contador win - nothing wrong with that as such, but I'd rather see Andy getting it, or at minimum 2nd overall this year. Contador's attacked twice - Andy hasn't attacked yet - would be good to see if he could do something.

If Brad gets a podium, that's brilliant - we'll have to wait and see.

Le Commentateur

andrew_s wrote:

I reckon someone will go for it from the off, more or less.

There are a couple of intermediate sprints in the middle: it will be Cav.

Probably the only time we ever see him attack on an hors category climb.

teagar

Hopefully van Hummel will be able to find himself a nice little group to decend down into the finish and hang on in there.

stagehopper

DaveyL wrote:

The day after, even though not a summit finish, looks extremely brutal.

Apparently that is the stage Andy Schleck has told Luxembourgian journalists he's targetted.

Cumulonimbus

There may have been snow on the Grand St Bernard recently but the weather's changing now with much warmer air being pumped across France and the Alps. Tomorrow and Wednesday are likely to see temps in the region of 30C down in the valleys at 500 metres with the temperatures likely to hit 10C at 2500 metres. Both days will see the risk of the heat setting off an afternoon thunderstorm but it'll be unlucky if this hits the race.

A band of rain tries to move in from the west during Thursday but it may be after the race when this hits so it could just end up being another hot and sunny day. The main contenders start together so any rain shouldnt have a huge impact on the overall but any rain later on will favour early starters for the stage win.

Friday and Saturday are a bit in doubt at the moment. The only free model on the internet is showing much of France between 20 and 25C but indicating that the hot weather may stay in the south with temperatures on low ground at about 35C when they tackle Ventoux

pat1cp

stagehopper wrote:

DaveyL wrote:

The day after, even though not a summit finish, looks extremely brutal.

Apparently that is the stage Andy Schleck has told Luxembourgian journalists he's targetted.

And it's only a relatively short descent into Grand Bornand from the top of the Colombiere, could be a good day !!!!!!

mrushton

they aren't really hard climbs. Both long, esp. the Grand st.bernard but not steep and there is a huge descent to Aosta which I'd expect to see run at 70kph - I've gone over 40mph on that run-in to Aosta and I'm v.avaerage. The Petit Col is an easyish climb with a superb descent into Bourg.

frenchfighter

The two Schleck's have worked hard on their descending and it has improved a lot.

I would like to see Wiggin's go for one. Yes, the likes of Andy and Contador and a few others could stay with him up the last climb but he is a superb descender. Either way, any attack he makes even if it isn't solo, will wittle down more contenders, making a higher placing for him more certain.

GeorgeShaw

I wouldn't expect too much of Twiggo tomorrow. He's still got the Queen stage on Wednesday, and he's never done a five mountain third week stage as a contender before. And then the ITT the day after, which is where he'll be targeting to make some gains. I suspect tomorrow will only be a minor selection, maybe only relegating those that are too high in the GC back towards a more realistic position.

There has to be fireworks on Wednesday, though. Contador only needs to defend, but the other GC contenders have to make a challenge with stages running out.

gabriel959

I expect attacks from everyone up there in the next couple of days to be honest as Contador is likely to be up there in the TT.

knedlicky

I hope VdVelde, Kreuziger and Frank S. attack on the Grand St. Bernard, maybe with the likes of Pellizotti, Kern and one or two of the Euskatel riders, and so put Astana on the defensive from the off.

Then I hope Casar makes a break for it on the descent with Le Mevel in tow.

Then I hope on the Petit St. Bernard, before halfway up, Nibali and Andy S. take off with Feillu, Sanchez and Sastre and that they carry their lead at the top all the way down to the finish.

Ten a penny!

Mettan

The excitement builds

knedlicky

andrew_s wrote:

I reckon someone will go for it from the off, more or less. The peloton don't have much of an advantage over a solo rider on proper descents, so there's only the 23 or 24km of false flat (i.e 1.5% climb) between the two cols to defend on.

One problem for a solo rider here might be the headwind. In the 'valley', there's often a strong wind blowing in the oppposite direction to which the riders are going.

I heard the Schleck brothers had sussed out this stage with a view to using it as revenge against Sastre (because last year he attacked on Alpe d'Huez when it was supposed to go to team mate Frank S. - supposedly part of the reason why Sastre changed teams; Sastre wasn't wanted any longer by Riis or the Schlecks).
With Sastre less in contention, maybe revenge isn't in the forefront of the Schleck minds any longer, but maybe they could use the same tactics they envisaged against Sastre now against Astana? Thus part of my hopes in my Ten A Penny dreams above.

I also think the stage is more than 'Ten A Penny' for FdJ, because it's not dissimilar to the Bonnette stage last year (where Dessel beat Casar in their sprint). Casar is still alive and kicking and Le Mevel is someone for him to work with and to help.

Le Commentateur

If the descents aren't very steep then a solo rider will just punch themselves out trying to get a gap -- remember Garzelli's long breakaway ride in a mountains stage of the Giro this year that came to nothing because the descending road was too shallow, that stage being won by Di Luca with aggressive riding in the last 10 kms.

squired

Cadel Evans said on his website that he thinks Tuesday's stage will just tire the legs out, with Wednesday and Thursday being the important days. I really hope he is wrong though. I'd imagine there will be a few accelerations to test out riders. Lets face it, Bradley is a risk due to his time trialling skills, so if they can eliminate him tomorrow that would be a job well done. Of course other riders have also said that Wednesday could see defensive riding due to the time trial being the next day.

I would personally love to see some GC boys putting in an effort on the first climb just to see who hasn't come out of the rest day feeling sharp. The stage could either be really exciting or extremely dull.

teagar

I'd imagine it will roll similarly to the Galibier stage in 2007.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmfHfEVVjBQ

http://www.letour.fr/2007/TDF/LIVE/us/9 ... etape.html