Can Cavendish/Columbia be beaten?

donrhummy

I'm being serious here. In the last two years, when he's actually contested a sprint how many has he lost? One? How many has he won? 38? (I think that might actually be accurate)

He actually has a chance to win 2 more this TDF (stages 14,21). The guy is insane (as is Columbia's lead-out train). Any chance Farrar can finally nab one? I'm not so sure. I think it's no coincidence that Zabel is coaching Cavendish, as his dominance and lead-out train were similar.

afx237vi

Farrar beat him fair and square in Tirreno. Petacchi beat him in the Giro. Bennati beat him, what, 3 or 4 times last year? Anything is possible.

Tusher

at the moment, only swine flu, an asteroid or bad fish can stop the Columbia train.

finchy

Introduce Thor to the delights of curried baked beans. A bit of extra propulsion may do the trick.

Then Phil and Paul can refer to him as the God of Thunderpants. :x :roll:

RichN95.

afx237vi wrote:

Farrar beat him fair and square in Tirreno. Petacchi beat him in the Giro. Bennati beat him, what, 3 or 4 times last year? Anything is possible.

I've been impressed with Farrar - it's his first Tour and he's always up there and seems to be improving. I reckon he could be a big threat in future, particularly if Garmin commit a sizable train to him.

Kléber

Here's my advice (I'm turning into a DS these days, offering advice all over the place)

...disrupt the Columbia train. Don't let them sit on the front all day, if they leaving a break to dangle with 30km to go, like they did today with Van Summeren and Sapa, I'd stick 3-4 guys on the front to bring back the break quickly and then get 3 other riders to take turns to counter-attack and see if a break can get going. If not, then at least it will make Columbia chase hard and waste their energy miles before the final 10km.

...get Renshaw. Cavendish is always placed in the perfect position. Usually sprints end up with some turkey in the wrong place, ie on the front, with 500m to go thinking "drat, I might as well take a long one", but Renshaw is always there and willing to launch Cav with a smooth acceleration and a high top speed. The sprint scenario is repetitive. Riders shouldn't be queuing for Cav's wheel, they should be aiming for Renshaw or for their own train to disrupt Renshaw. Renshaw is good but there are many others capable of the same, for example Hushovd really rated William Bonnet when at CA.

...organisation. Cav has loads of riders to help him, most other riders are left to themselves. Even Farrar is reliant on Millar for a tow in the closing miles, then it's only Pate from Garmin to help. The other sprinters don't have a train.

...reposition. Cav seems to sit very low on the bike, even when out of the saddle. Others need to examine this aerodynamic style. One for the winter months.

...plan properly. Hushovd got his gears wrong today, thinking the final hill was 2-3% when it was 6% and so big Thor found the 11T too much, Cav was in the 13 or 14T. A simple check of the roadbook or a phone call from a soigneur waiting at the finish line to inform the team car could have alerted Thor to this.

Finally, we're not seeing full on sprints. Bennati and Boonen aren't on form, Freire isn't up there in the bunch sprints as he was in the past. Yes Cavendish is the best in the world but don't expect such easy, unrivalled wins to be the norm, what he is doing is exceptional right now.

Mettan

Farrar was very close today - sure, that's not winning - but pschologically, Farrar should say to himself "I'm there or there abouts" (be foolish not to) - a bit more gym-work and Farrar could challenge imo (in the future).

Would love to seeTheo Bos get up to scratch road-wise (if possible) and compete against Cav in the near future.

wicked

Cav's post race interview was interesting today. When asked if he was suprised he won because the uphill finish was said to not suit him he looked bemused and said "who said that the internet forums!?". Says it all methinks :roll:

Bernie S

Just a thought, why doesnt Cav learn a few words of French which would endear him to the French public and media

geoff_ss

I'm not a dedicated pro-race fan but I've watched and followed the Tour on and off for years, virtually and in RL so you can take this with a pinch of salt.

Watching the closing stages of today's stage it became clear from some way out that another Cavendish win was very likely simply because of the smooth organisation of the Columbia team. They obviously were working to a rehearsed plan and showed the skill and determination to carry it through. None of the other teams demonstrated anything like the same organisation.

Sure Cavendish has a blistering acceleration and a fearless riding style but the lead out train is more than half of his victories. I'm pleased to see that he seems to appreciate that only too well in the way he thanks them immediately after a win.

Geoff

Eurostar

It's a shame he's not being tested in this Tour. And I don't think he can be ranked as one of the greats while he's got the best train. We need Robbie to show him how it's done without one.

andrew_s

So Cipollini doesn't count as a great sprinter because he used a leadout train?

Cav can win without a train. 3 out of Cav's 4 stages last year were without the benefit of a train. What the train is doing is oncreasing the winning odds from 30-40% to 75-80%.
Other teams aren't going to show up with a dedicated train unless they are reasonably sure that their sprinter is a winner. The current situation could continue for a while.

donrhummy

Bernie S wrote:

Just a thought, why doesnt Cav learn a few words of French which would endear him to the French public and media

He's trying:

"I made an effort this winter to try and learn French," he continued. "I’m still not confident to speak it, but to be asked questions in French, then answer in English – I’m able to do that.

Bernie S

Didnt see that quote...so chapeau to him

Gazzaputt

Mettan wrote:

Farrar was very close today - sure, that's not winning - but pschologically, Farrar should say to himself "I'm there or there abouts" (be foolish not to) - a bit more gym-work and Farrar could challenge imo (in the future).

Would love to seeTheo Bos get up to scratch road-wise (if possible) and compete against Cav in the near future.

Farrar's interview after the race was far from thinking he's near Cav. He said that Cav just had another kick that he didn't have.

bobtbuilder

Just a thought, why doesnt Cav learn a few words of French which would endear him to the French public and media

Because he's BRITISH. He just needs to speak slower and more loudly

Bernie S

Like Nick Griffin you mean

flattythehurdler

Mettan wrote:

Farrar was very close today - sure, that's not winning - but pschologically, Farrar should say to himself "I'm there or there abouts" (be foolish not to) - a bit more gym-work and Farrar could challenge imo (in the future).

Would love to seeTheo Bos get up to scratch road-wise (if possible) and compete against Cav in the near future.

If he could keep his hands to himself

Tom Butcher

Petacchi was at least Cav's equal in the Giro when they got a clean head to head sprint. Understandably the Tour didn't want that team in the race but it'd certainly have spiced up the sprint battle.

stagehopper

In the Giro Petacchi only beat him once in a head to head. The second time Cav was caught up in a crash and the peleton split.

What Cav is good at is learning from defeats. He obsessively studies all his sprints and he's rarely surprised a second time.

Tom Butcher

Yes but he beat him cleanly - Cav had his wheel and just couldn't come round him. I can't remember if Cav beat Petacchi when they both got a clean run at it - possibly once later on in the race - which is why I thought they were pretty equal in the Giro - certainly Cav can't claim to be faster than Petacchi on that showing any more than Petacchi could claim to be faster than Cav.

As the race developed Petacchi was working for DiLuca for the overall.

takethehighroad

Kléber wrote:

The sprint scenario is repetitive. Riders shouldn't be queuing for Cav's wheel, they should be aiming for Renshaw or for their own train to disrupt Renshaw.

That's what Milram tried yesterday, they used a train to bring Ciolek up to near Cav and Renshaw then Ciolek got shoved out the way by Renshaw and his train got shoved out the way by Tony Martin.

...organisation. Cav has loads of riders to help him, most other riders are left to themselves. Even Farrar is reliant on Millar for a tow in the closing miles, then it's only Pate from Garmin to help. The other sprinters don't have a train.

True. But Cav's situation is unique there, it was the same last year, he's got GC contenders leading him out (Martin, Kirchen) whereas Garmin aren't gona waste the energy of VdV and Wiggins to be beaten by Cav having a better kick off Farrar's wheel.

...plan properly. Hushovd got his gears wrong today.

I think that's partly down to the DS, especially as he's a sprinter himself. Thor had the right idea yesterday, try to get round Cavendish and block him in so he can't use his kick, but he didn't have the execution.