The GC without the Team Time Trial - a comparison

stagehopper

(or how the Pyrenees was neutered)

Thought I'd have a look at the GC standings if the TTT was removed. All times are relative to the Tour favourite Alberto Contador.

1 Rinaldo Nocentini (Ita) AG2R La Mondiale -0:01:54
2 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia - HTC -0:00:05
3 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:00:00
4 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:00:02
5 Brice Feillu (Fra) Agritubel 0:00:03
6 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:00:22
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 0:00:26
8 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 0:00:33
9 Luis León Sánchez Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:00:41
10 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0:00:47
11 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:00:48
12 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:00:50
13 Vladimir Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale 0:00:51
14 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin - Slipstream 0:01:00
15 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:03
16 Sandy Casar (Fra) Française des Jeux 0:01:06
17 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:01:09
18 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Team Columbia - HTC 0:01:16
19 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram 0:01:26
20 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 0:01:36
21 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:39
22 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia - HTC 0:02:11
23 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha 0:02:20
24 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 0:02:36
25 Alexandre Botcharov (Rus) Team Katusha 0:03:31
26 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Astana 0:03:57

Incredible to see how close the race would be, and how ineffective the Pyrenees has been.

marinerrr

Thanks for this - very interesting.

It really shows the Pyrenees basically may as well have not been there, they were neutered so heavily - the only time gained or lost by any GC guys was the 20 seconds or so gained by Contador on everyone on Arcalis, but otherwise they have not changed a thing.

I would have much rather have had no TTT, and a tougher spell in the Pyrenees - the TTT has created big time gaps in the most uninteresting way possible, whilst we could have had some great mountain stages instead. It would potentially have had the same impact on the GC standings, at least in terms of Contador being the highest of the GC guys, but it would have been a hell of a lot more interesting.

Obviously you don't want them to be too decisive too early, but something tougher than what we got would have been nice.

Birillo

Don't blame the TTT. The Pyrenees were neutered by the course profile - only one mountain top finish.

geoff_ss

Birillo wrote:

Don't blame the TTT. The Pyrenees were neutered by the course profile - only one mountain top finish.

Absolutely! That and I suspect the fact that there are 2 potential winners leading an already strong team means there are no attacks.

When my wife and climbed the Col d'Envelira we free wheeled for over 30 miles into France - not a route likely to generate any exciting racing.

I'm all for individual time trials. At least then you know the best and strongest rider has won unaided by a powerful team. Mountain top finishes are similar.

Geoff

stagehopper

Birillo wrote:

Don't blame the TTT. The Pyrenees were neutered by the course profile - only one mountain top finish.

I agree the profiles of the Pyrenees have been awful, but the TTT effectively wrote off the chances of many of the leading contenders making attacks against the super-strong and well positioned Astana team worthless.

jackhammer111 - banned

Rest day came after stage 10 last year. No TTT. 1 mountaintop finish.

This years race is closer.

1 Cadel Evans Silence-Lotto 42h 29' 09"
2 Fränk Schleck Team CSC Saxo Bank + 1"
3 Christian Vandevelde Garmin-Chipotle + 38"
4 Bernhard Kohl Gerolsteiner + 46"
5 Denis Menchov Rabobank + 57"
6 Carlos Sastre Team CSC Saxo Bank + 1' 28"
7 Kim Kirchen Team Columbia + 1' 56"
8 Juan José Cobo Saunier Duval-Scott + 2' 10"
9 Riccardo Riccò Saunier Duval-Scott + 2' 29"
10 Vladimir Efimkin Ag2r-La Mondiale + 2' 32"

Unsheath

Great post.

Clearly the GC board without the TTT offers a better scenario leading into week 2.

In saying that it does force the likes of Evans, Sastre and Menchov to attack earlier than usual as they can't rely on the usual MO and sticking to wheels, which they are prone to do.

Steve Tcp

I was interested to hear Carlos Sastre's instant and blunt "no" response when he was asked if there was any likelihood of teams allying to "beat up" Astana. My question is why not? Doesn't it nark Columbia, Saxo, Cervelo etc to be so subjugated by one team? Personally I hope that one of those teams keeps it's powder dry over the next few days of flatter stages then really has a go at Astana when they arrive in the Alps. Surely Saxo Bank aren't going to go to sit back for two more weeks of second fiddle riding without even putting Astana's strength to the test. For obvious reasons I'm wary of saying this, but I'll say it anyway - I wish there was somebody like Virenque or, especially, Pantani to launch one of those long attacks in the high mountains that can really set the cat amongst the pigeons and rattle the contenders. It's a bit of a downer if this race already boils down to Contador or Armstrong and the main excitement is going to be about the battle for green.

bobtbuilder

TTTs are always going to favour the squads with the resources to cram some TT monsters into their line-ups.

Less fortunate / weaker squads with a single GC contender and not much back up are effectively out fo the race after this point. A classic exmaple has always been Euskaltel Euskadi who would lose 3-4 minutes in a TTT.

edhornby

I don't like the way that the TTT has mullered some of the contenders because Astana bankrolls the fastest domestiques

but.... go back and read through the thread on the spoiler for that stage, it was compelling viewing

I can understand why you'd have a TTT - sponsors love them, makes great telly, part of the classic elements of the tour. I've often said that you could have the TTT and not award the time into the GC but still have a big cash prize to motivate the teams, but that would take the drama out of the stage.... hmm I don't know whether I want it or not !

graeme_s-2

edhornby wrote:

I can understand why you'd have a TTT - sponsors love them, makes great telly, part of the classic elements of the tour. I've often said that you could have the TTT and not award the time into the GC but still have a big cash prize to motivate the teams, but that would take the drama out of the stage.... hmm I don't know whether I want it or not !

One of the pundits on Eurosport was insisting that if you have a TTT the time should only count towards the best overall team competition, not to riders individual times.

calvjones

The old method of limiting time losses to 30 second (?) tranches was much derided, but might have helped somewhat I guess.

epr

The Pyrenees have not been especially easy this year. Last year there was an HC altitude finish and one stage with a long descent after the Aspin which was basically a bunch sprint.

In 2006 there was only one Pyrenean stage that could be called haute montagne.

In fact, the only years I can remember where there were more than one mountain finish in the first set of mountains are 2002 and 2004, neither of which were incredibly exciting tours.

If there is any problem, I think it is that four out of the top five GC contenders are riding for Astana.