Cancellara - a future GC contender?
TWO of my mates went down to the betting shop this morning and put bets on Cancellara winning the yellow in Paris. They got something like 250/1 on it. I thought they were mad, but we were down the pub watching the prologue today and the commentators were suggesting that he could do it "one day". In fact, I was out riding last week and a few of the other guys were talking about him as a future TdF champion! :shock:
To get lighter for the climbs, he'll probably lose overall power for his TTs (according to the Eurosport commentators) so I doubt he'd ever sacrifice that for training to become a GC contender...
Do you think he could be up there one day?
To get lighter for the climbs, he'll probably lose overall power for his TTs (according to the Eurosport commentators) so I doubt he'd ever sacrifice that for training to become a GC contender...
Do you think he could be up there one day?
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As a winner, no - not with the likes of Contador and Shleck around over the next 5 -10 years. Contender, "top 3 or 4", again no, not likely, imho.0
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Don't you remember last year's TdF? He was decimating the peloton on the climbs. For some reason people think he can't climb, but he can. He is not a sprinter, sprinters can't climb, but good time trialists can climb reasonably well.0
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hasn't he lost 7kg for this tour? Doesn't seem to have hindered him at all!0
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csp wrote:Don't you remember last year's TdF? He was decimating the peloton on the climbs. For some reason people think he can't climb, but he can. He is not a sprinter, sprinters can't climb, but good time trialists can climb reasonably well.
People talk about him decimating the field on climbs but i dont quite remember this. Do you know what stage it was? On the stage to Hautacam he was in an early break that got caught and he then powered down the long valley descent to the foot of the Hautacam. He then put a huge effort in at the bottom (not maintainable) and then dropped off. In the Alps he did lead on the less steep bits of the Croix de Fer but there was a group of about 30(?) with him. He then got dropped when it got steeper towards the top although he did regain contact on the way down suggesting he hadnt been that far behind.0 -
And he does all this on bicarbonate of Yoda?0
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Cancellara did win the Tour of Switzerland recently, and that clearly involved some climbs, which he'd need to be able to comfortably manage for the Tdf yellow jersey, but I think he's a better bet for the green jersey, as an allrounder.
The last decade or so, the green jersey has been dominated by sprinters, but it wasn't always so. Jalabert won it twice without being a sprinter, and although Kelly started off as a sprinter, and occasionally later tried his luck in sprints too, his main successes in the Vuelta, Paris-Nice and the TdF green jersey were based on his more allround capability.
The likes of Martin and Kreuziger, who were also on the final GC podium in Switzerland, are better bets for a future TdF GC winner.0 -
Today's time trial was actually reasonably hilly so he could have lost some ground on them, but with his form he was the fastest up the ascend.0
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Well 250/1 certainly gives good value - especially for an each way bet. It's been said that it's time triallist's course and he can replicate today's performance in the the two remaining TTs then he'll gain a lot of time. The Tour of Switzerland was probably the first time his climbed for himself and he's a lot better than people give him credit for.
Having said all that, I don't expect to be in the top 10 and see his GC claims similar to those of Hincapie and Devolder in recent years.Twitter: @RichN950 -
The Croix de Fer is an HC climb but not that brutal, i believe he was out front to do a monster tow to Alpe D HuezCumulonimbus wrote:csp wrote:Don't you remember last year's TdF? He was decimating the peloton on the climbs. For some reason people think he can't climb, but he can. He is not a sprinter, sprinters can't climb, but good time trialists can climb reasonably well.
People talk about him decimating the field on climbs but i dont quite remember this. Do you know what stage it was? On the stage to Hautacam he was in an early break that got caught and he then powered down the long valley descent to the foot of the Hautacam. He then put a huge effort in at the bottom (not maintainable) and then dropped off. In the Alps he did lead on the less steep bits of the Croix de Fer but there was a group of about 30(?) with him. He then got dropped when it got steeper towards the top although he did regain contact on the way down suggesting he hadnt been that far behind.0 -
The Croix de Fer is an HC climb but not that brutal
the Croix de Fer is an absolute swine IMO. OK you have the little descent after le Rivier to recover a bit, but it's a nasty little bugger. A lot worse then many of the HCs I've ridden..0 -
It is a hard climb but when Cancellara was pulling on the front, there were still 50 riders in the bunch and he was doing it on the flatter 4-6% section in the middle. It's one thing to do that, it's another to stay with Contador, Andy Schleck, Sastre and Evans on the final climb.0
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singlespeedexplosif wrote:The Croix de Fer is an HC climb but not that brutal
the Croix de Fer is an absolute swine IMO. OK you have the little descent after le Rivier to recover a bit, but it's a nasty little bugger. A lot worse then many of the HCs I've ridden..
If its rivier allemont your are talking about then the TDF last year came up the opposite way. I agree with you about it being a swine though!Brian B.0 -
haha there is no such thing as an "hors categorie climb that's not that brutal" really is there?
even if you bimble up it at the weekend and find it manageable, you need to consider how brutal it would be either (a) at "early in the day weaken the legs pace" with a fast moving peloton or (b) at "summit finish" pace with the GC contenders. And if it's HC, then the answer to both these questions is invariably: brutal.
the GC winner must be able to survive (a) with enough left over for (b)
Cancellera can do (a) but he'll never be able to combine it with (b). His job last year on those stages was to tire everyone else out. He did it very well indeed, but it's a big jump to being able to ride at that pace, and then stick with the leaders up a summit finish climb.
the tour de suisse win is a red herring imo. It wasn't as easy as some of our friends on here like to think, but the course was suited to him in a way that no tour de france (or other grand tour) course ever would be.0 -
Jalabert was a sprinter, he just came back after the accident as an all-rounder/climber. Whilst the green jersey doesn't necessarily go to the fastest sprinter you do need to be able to actually sprint and do it consistently to have a chance - I can't see Cancellara ever getting it.knedlicky wrote:The last decade or so, the green jersey has been dominated by sprinters, but it wasn't always so. Jalabert won it twice without being a sprinter
As for yellow - I think it's possible but he'd have to compromise his TTing and shed more weight. He can climb well now but these days for the yellow you really need to be able to hang with best on the hardest stages (or even attack on climbs) which I can't see him doing without reshaping.0 -
If its rivier allemont your are talking about then the TDF last year came up the opposite way
good point!0 -
You could already see before the infamous policeman accident Ja-Ja was an allrounder.nferrar wrote:
Jalabert was a sprinter, he just came back after the accident as an all-rounder/climber.knedlicky wrote:The last decade or so, the green jersey has been dominated by sprinters, but it wasn't always so. Jalabert won it twice without being a sprinter
In 1992, his green jersey victory wasn’t only due to sprints (he was involved in 4), but also to doing well in 4 hilly stages - one in the Ardennes (there winning a breakaway group with Chiappucci and Lemond), one in the Vosges and two in the Massif Central.
I’d say Ja-Ja came back after the accident as a ‘yet better’ allrounder – when he won the green jersey in 1995, he was in 6 sprints, but also was 6th and 7th in the two TTs, 6th in a hilly stage in Belgium, and in the first ten in 3 high mountain stages, incl. 7th at the top of Alpe d’Huez.
In 1992, Chiappucci was third in the green jersey competition, not exactly known for his sprinting. Other non-sprinters to have done well in the points category the last couple of decades have included Rooks, Breukinik, Sciandri (okay-did sprint once in a blue moon), Indurain, Vino, and Kirchen (another blue mooner), showing sprinting perhaps isn't an absolute necessity.nferrar wrote:Whilst the green jersey doesn't necessarily go to the fastest sprinter you do need to be able to actually sprint and do it consistently to have a chance0 -
csp wrote:Don't you remember last year's TdF? He was decimating the peloton on the climbs. For some reason people think he can't climb, but he can. He is not a sprinter, sprinters can't climb, but good time trialists can climb reasonably well.
Anyone remember back to the days when the now 48 year old Malcom Elliott was national hill climb champ ?
OMG - that was 1980.....0 -
If Cancellara wins the Tour then I think I'll have a go with the Saxo Bank Team myself. He's a dump truck of a bloke. I did watch the Tour de Suisse on the Astra Satellite and it wasn't a mountainous race at all. Hilly maybe but no really HC major hard stages. A bit disappointing really.
Voigt is a big question mark. Sometimes he can climb beating Leipheimer in the Tour of Germany with that huge 2800m climb and he can time trial too but he's so BIG! How can he go up hill in the Tour of Germany like that! :?
I have no idea??
Ciao Jerry“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving”- Albert Einstein
"You can't ride the Tour de France on mineral water."
-Jacques Anquetil0 -
Bit surprised Cancellera didn't give it more of a go yesterday - with Cavs train being tired it must have been worth a go in the last km. Did cross my mind that not wanting to expend energy just for a stage win was more the way a GCcontender would ride. No I can't really see it either - but did just make me wonder.
it's a hard life if you don't weaken.0 -
avoidingmyphd wrote:Cancellera can do (a) but he'll never be able to combine it with (b). His job last year on those stages was to tire everyone else out. He did it very well indeed, but it's a big jump to being able to ride at that pace, and then stick with the leaders up a summit finish climb.
How do you know that?
I know you're looking at last years results for your evidence, but him and Wiggo have reportedly lost seven kilograms recently. :shock:
I'm not disagreeing with you, i'm just saying that, perhaps, we shouldn't rule Cancellara & Wiggins out until we actually see them on the mountain stages! Millar has been climbing well recently and he has been losing weight too (dieting, apparently).
Cancellara and Wiggins have obviously not lost power, looking at the prologue results so we'll see how much of a difference 7kg makes when the mountains appear.
More and more people I talk to are now saying that Cancellara will do it and he's secretly been Saxo Bank's main man the whole time. :? Interesting theory, but I guess it's still early days...0 -
Bhima wrote:
More and more people I talk to are now saying that Cancellara will do it and he's secretly been Saxo Bank's main man the whole time. :? Interesting theory, but I guess it's still early days...
So Riis has secretly been planning ito abandon all the hope invested in his white jersey winner and the man who held yellow until the last mountain stage who then marshalled the chase expertly behind Sastre in favour of a man who's never shown anything as a GC contender?
riiiiiiiiight."In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"
@gietvangent0 -
Be interesting to see where he ends up if he does try and finish high up. If he had a few minutes then i would really fancy his chances of keeping the jersey to Andorra and possibly beyond there.0
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disgruntledgoat wrote:
So Riis has secretly been planning ito abandon all the hope invested in his white jersey winner and the man who held yellow until the last mountain stage who then marshalled the chase expertly behind Sastre in favour of a man who's never shown anything as a GC contender?
riiiiiiiiight.
I didn't say I agreed with that, i'm just keeping an open mind/speculating/etc...0 -
He's had some weight problems this year.
But this comes from the horse's mouth today in an interview with Swiss TV: he reckons that if he loses 3kg he can be a contender in the mountains, at least to limit his losses and to dominate in the time trials to the point where he can do well. He will try to keep the jersey on the road to Andorra, I can't see that but the stage will shed a lot of lights on any distance between his ambition and his current abilities.0 -
Cancellara will never win the GC. Haven't seen him eat a single banana on the whole tour yet!
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Cancellara will be helping the Schlecks when it gets to Andorra. I hope he's not in Yellow when he starts work as I never like to see the Leader's Jersey involved with domestic work. If the rider has the Jersey then it's Holiday time for that rider. I think Victor Hugo Pena had the Yellow Jersey once and he was doing chores for Mr "Mellow Jonnie".
I think it cheapens the Jersey and shows it no respect.
I guess it will be Andy as the boss from then on as Frank has yet to remove his stabilisers.
Cheers Jerry“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving”- Albert Einstein
"You can't ride the Tour de France on mineral water."
-Jacques Anquetil0 -
Kléber wrote:He's had some weight problems this year.
But this comes from the horse's mouth today in an interview with Swiss TV: he reckons that if he loses 3kg he can be a contender in the mountains, at least to limit his losses and to dominate in the time trials to the point where he can do well. He will try to keep the jersey on the road to Andorra, I can't see that but the stage will shed a lot of lights on any distance between his ambition and his current abilities.
Cancel Giro,.he's decided to turn up. A nun employed man from Switzerland could get a jab as extract of celluloid with a nice family. Rumour mills are alive with the sound of moo sick.
I've just spoken to Dan yOrra on defone and he's not expecting Flab Ian this year. There putting in a special one man sign on station near the border of his crack'n' saddle, it's to see if anythings been dripped in his slink.
Is room heard that if things don't worlk out patriotism will make a come and he will get a jab at being a watch weighter .I saw it on Twitzer land. As to which stressed or taunt will it be, I would have to guess at not knowing.0 -
jerry3571 wrote:Cancellara will be helping the Schlecks when it gets to Andorra. I hope he's not in Yellow when he starts work as I never like to see the Leader's Jersey involved with domestic work. If the rider has the Jersey then it's Holiday time for that rider. I think Victor Hugo Pena had the Yellow Jersey once and he was doing chores for Mr "Mellow Jonnie".
I think it cheapens the Jersey and shows it no respect.
I guess it will be Andy as the boss from then on as Frank has yet to remove his stabilisers.
Cheers Jerry
To be fair, Rendell's book had Pena saying that he was a bit freaked out at the time when Armstrong had the team, himself excluded, work for Pena the day he wore yellow."In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"
@gietvangent0 -
Bhima wrote:How do you know that?
I obviously don't know it Bhima, just stating my opinion, although I'm pretty confident I'll end up being right!
I'm sure the new skinny wiggins and cancellara will go correspondingly better in the mountains, but I just can't see them bridging the gap to the top of the GC.0 -
Kléber wrote:It is a hard climb but when Cancellara was pulling on the front, there were still 50 riders in the bunch and he was doing it on the flatter 4-6% section in the middle. It's one thing to do that, it's another to stay with Contador, Andy Schleck, Sastre and Evans on the final climb.
Well said.0
