TDF - Your 'outsiders' pick

NervexProf
NervexProf Posts: 4,202
edited July 2009 in Pro race
For me Andy Schleck...worthy of a podium methinks.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/andy-sc ... iere-stage

Your pick is....?
Common sense in an uncommon degree is what the world calls wisdom

Comments

  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    Does Schleck the Second count, given he was white jersey last year?

    I hope Bruseghin does a good ride, he got 10th in the Giro, but the lack of time trialling this year could cost him.

    Also, isn't it starnge that this year, for the fourth year in a row, no one is giving the previous winner much of a chance. Tenuous links I know, but still.....
  • AO1504
    AO1504 Posts: 57
    I would say Andy Schleck is one of the main contenders not an outsider.
  • jimycooper
    jimycooper Posts: 740
    i think that pretty m,uch everyone except contador is an outsider :wink:
  • AO1504
    AO1504 Posts: 57
    I agree Contador is favourite but if he doesn't get the support from Astana he may find it difficult to fight against Schleck and Saxobank etc
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    Even without support he can just romp away from anyone. Montagne de Lure in Paris Nice this year, he had a piss poor team, only Popovych capable of staying til the end, and he trounced the floor with everyone.
  • avoidingmyphd
    avoidingmyphd Posts: 1,154
    i don't think an "outsider" (roughly, anyone not mentioned on a favourites thread) can even get top 5 this year.

    there are so many established names jostling at the top and the "youngsters" (gesink, kreuziger) just aren't ready to make the step up like contador in 2007, with the exception of schleck jr who has made the step right into the favourites group!

    I'd love to be proved wrong, but I doubt the winner will be anyone who we didn't see coming.
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    Yes, i agree with the above. On betfair, Andy Schelck is third favourite for a podium. He's only marghinally behind Evans and effectively they are equal second favourites. I find it hard to look beyond Contador, Evans, A. Schleck, Armstrong, Menchov and Sastre for a podium. I think that Kreuziger and Nibali are focussing on this race and so could go better than last year - however, i cant see any of them breaking into the top three. Pellizotti showed well at the Giro but surely he peaked there.

    For me the Colombia guys are slight unknowns. Kirchen did well last year but maybe his injuries earlier this year mean he is focussed solely onthis race and wont fade like last year (personally i dont think he's good enough to podium bearing that in mind). Maybe Rogers can do well and is peaking here but i dont think he will have the legs to beat 3 of the top 6.

    There is the possibility of someone finishing high as a result of finishing in a breakaway. There are some strong teams around though so maybe no-one any good will be let go. If i had to go for anyone then maybe an Astana rider, such as Popovych or Leipheimer, would stand the best chance to go up the road and gain a decent chunk of time.
  • Tom Butcher
    Tom Butcher Posts: 3,830
    If Contador isn't on top form my pick would be Sastre.
    it's a hard life if you don't weaken.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    Someone I think is going to do a good ride, and one I'd like to see is Oscar Pereiro - the Tour's unfairly forgotten man.

    I'm only talking about top ten here, not podium. But without a proper team leader he may do well.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Oz Chief
    Oz Chief Posts: 176
    RichN95 wrote:
    Someone I think is going to do a good ride, and one I'd like to see is Oscar Pereiro - the Tour's unfairly forgotten man.

    I'm only talking about top ten here, not podium. But without a proper team leader he may do well.
    I would have thought that LL Sanchez would be handed the Caisse leadership. I dont think he can podium, but with the strength of his team a definite top 5 shot.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    Oz Chief wrote:
    RichN95 wrote:
    Someone I think is going to do a good ride, and one I'd like to see is Oscar Pereiro - the Tour's unfairly forgotten man.

    I'm only talking about top ten here, not podium. But without a proper team leader he may do well.
    I would have thought that LL Sanchez would be handed the Caisse leadership. I dont think he can podium, but with the strength of his team a definite top 5 shot.

    True, but I don't think he's going to get the full support that Valverde would have got. He's not really done enough to merit 100% team support - so it will (or at least should) be twin leaders, I feel.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • chickenkiev
    chickenkiev Posts: 7
    True, but I don't think he's going to get the full support that Valverde would have got. He's not really done enough to merit 100% team support - so it will (or at least should) be twin leaders, I feel.

    LL Sanchez is an upcoming GT contender who won this year's Paris-Nice. Definitely my dark horse pick

    Oscar Pereiro won the 06 Tour by default, and only because the DS's had a collective brain fade and allowed him to get 20mins on a breakaway :D
  • TheStone
    TheStone Posts: 2,291
    It's so open this year. Contador's a great rider, but slightly over evens is far too short odds.

    I had 4 bets last week, all mentioned already.
    A Schleck (not an outsider), Kreuziger, LL Sanchez and Nilbali
    (plus a cheeky bet on Ciolek for green)

    But who can you discount?

    Astana Leaders:
    Contador, Armstrong

    Old and Dependable:
    Evans, Menchov, Sastre, Leipheimer, Rogers, F Schleck, Kloden

    Young and a bit untested:
    A Schleck, Kreuziger, LL Sanchez, Gesink, Nibali

    You also need to factor in teams getting banned for having one positive test (mentioning no names)
    exercise.png
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    I think it's safe to discount Rogers, Daddy Schleck, and Levi and Klodi.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    chickenkiev wrote:
    Oscar Pereiro won the 06 Tour by default, and only because the DS's had a collective brain fade and allowed him to get 20mins on a breakaway :D

    He'd been 10th in two previous years, so it wasn't a complete fluke.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • edhornby
    edhornby Posts: 1,780
    Menchov may be worth a punt, nobody's really tipping him to do anything so could ride strongly without too much attention from the peloton...
    "I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, how good is that"
    --Jens Voight
  • TheStone
    TheStone Posts: 2,291
    edhornby wrote:
    Menchov may be worth a punt, nobody's really tipping him to do anything so could ride strongly without too much attention from the peloton...

    Yep, not much talk about Menchov (who would have won except for a couple of errors) or Evans (who seem to have the whole field against him last year).
    exercise.png
  • paulcuthbert
    paulcuthbert Posts: 1,016
    Roman Kreuziger for me :)
    The most painful climb in Northern Ireland http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs200.snc1/6776_124247198694_548863694_2335754_8016178_n.jpg
  • victorponf
    victorponf Posts: 1,187
    Luis León Sánchez (he is on fit again, very dangerous in the medium mountains stages, like Colmar) and Igor Antón for me (Team TT is no very good for the Vasque, but he looks ready for the Tour in the spanish national champ. Last year before his crash seen to be the only one capable to follow Contador climbing in the Vuelta)
    If you like Flandes, Roubaix or Eroica, you would like GP Canal de Castilla, www.gpcanaldecastilla.com
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    Igor Anton is the darkest of dark horses, no one really knows what he can do over three weeks. That's a very good call.

    I think it's a little too early for LLS, even though he was VERY impressive in Paris Nice. He is only 22 after all (i think?) and he's not really learned how to climb in the high mountains. For example I can see him losing a lot of time to Le Grand Bornand.

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