Bet on the TdF?

alp777

Ok, i like to have a punt on the TdF every year and would be interested to know what you guys (& girls) think as to who is a good bet as things stand at the moment. Bearing in mind what has been happening this week in the Dauphine, should Contador still be an even money favourite, is Evans a good bet at 9/1, what about Schleck at around 6/1 and dare i say Armstong at around 9/2?

Your thoughts please?

ronthechef

Evans each way, looks like a good bet at 9/1

Pokerface

ronthechef wrote:

Evans each way, looks like a good bet at 9/1

Agreed - Evans looks to be in good form and his time trialling has improved.


Really inspiring to see him attacking (an attacking and attacking) in the mountains today.

Don't think Contador is pushing himself right now and should round into form nicely for the Tour so should still win.

ACMadone

I think that Evans is already at 100%. There are various articles over the last few days on cyclingnews.com with Contador stating that he's just warming up and not wanting to push himself. Personally I don't thing Evans will make the podium at the TDF this year.

donaldinho

I put money on Sastre at 14/1 before the Tour last year but must admit it was a heart over head decision that worked out.
I backed Andy Schleck last week at 13/2, hoping for a repeat 8)

teagar

wait untill after the Tour de Suisse.

stagehopper

backed Sastre at 40-1 on Betfair about 6 weeks back. Couldn't believe he was 5x the odds of Armstrong.

The beauty with Betfair is you can lay off the odds for a guaranteed profit as soon as they shorten. The more they shorten the more guaranteed profit you make.

Last year knowing the early stages favoured explosive classic style riders I bet on Kirchen to win the Tour at long odds on Betfair (knowing he had no chance of winning) and as he then dominated the early stages cashed in as his odds shortened dramatically as non-cycling fans bet on him.

stagehopper

... delete, posted twice ...

paulcuthbert

I don't think Evans can win the Tour when you have more attacking riders like Contador and Armstrong up against him. We didn't see Evans attack once last year, whereas if you think of Contador vs Rasmussen 2 years ago, or even Armstrong's first win in 1999, they are more attacking riders and will set out to gain time on Evans... exactly the way in which Sastre won the 2008 Tour (and quite brilliantly too!)

And i'm surprised no one has mentioned Leipheimer or Menchov after their recent form...

ACMadone

paulcuthbert wrote:

And i'm surprised no one has mentioned Leipheimer or Menchov after their recent form...

You have a valid point about Leipheimer, especially as he's not going to be the team leader unlike at the Giro when I think the pressure got to him. All his really good performances in GT's come from when he's working for Contador.

Menchov on the other hand does say he goes better riding 2 GT's a year, but a top 5 would be good for him in the Tour considering who will be lining up for the Grand Depart.

lloyd_bower

paulcuthbert wrote:

I don't think Evans can win the Tour when you have more attacking riders like Contador and Armstrong up against him. We didn't see Evans attack once last year, whereas if you think of Contador vs Rasmussen 2 years ago, or even Armstrong's first win in 1999, they are more attacking riders and will set out to gain time on Evans... exactly the way in which Sastre won the 2008 Tour (and quite brilliantly too!)

And i'm surprised no one has mentioned Leipheimer or Menchov after their recent form...

Mmmm, if it wasn't for Contador v Rasmussen prior to the latter getting chucked off the tour, Evans would have won it that year.

I'm no great Evans fan, but he's generally had less team support. Riders from the strongest team have won in the last few years, and even before that there was the US Postal/Discovery train.

Can't see Leipheimer getting near the podium, he's hasn't the class to win a top tour and the strength of the field in this years tour will keep him off the podium.

Keith Oates

Betting on Armstrong for the win would be a wasted bet IMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gregssmirkingrevenge

lloyd bower wrote:

paulcuthbert wrote:

I don't think Evans can win the Tour when you have more attacking riders like Contador and Armstrong up against him. We didn't see Evans attack once last year, whereas if you think of Contador vs Rasmussen 2 years ago, or even Armstrong's first win in 1999, they are more attacking riders and will set out to gain time on Evans... exactly the way in which Sastre won the 2008 Tour (and quite brilliantly too!)

And i'm surprised no one has mentioned Leipheimer or Menchov after their recent form...

Mmmm, if it wasn't for Contador v Rasmussen prior to the latter getting chucked off the tour, Evans would have won it that year.

How do you figure this? Contador was much, much stronger than Evans in the hills that year. Levi would have beaten him too if he had not lost time on that one early alpine stage.

Evans sits in the hazy ground between specialist time trialist and specialist climber; in dream case senario he's capable of winning both but more often than not he ends up doing rather well in both but failing to excel in either. For me he's a less classy and more annoying version of Leipheimer.

sportbilly1976

a responce from LA to a post I made on Twitter this afternoon...

"lancearmstrong@sportbilly1976 Most definitely. Cadel is now the #1 favorite based on his tt's and the way he was climbing.
about 5 hours ago from UberTwitter in reply to sportbilly1976

sportbilly1976@lancearmstrong - Cadel riding strong in the Dauphine, Alberto too...should be a good TdF this year!
about 6 hours ago from web "

teagar

sportbilly1976 wrote:

a responce from LA to a post I made on Twitter this afternoon...

"lancearmstrong@sportbilly1976 Most definitely. Cadel is now the #1 favorite based on his tt's and the way he was climbing.
about 5 hours ago from UberTwitter in reply to sportbilly1976

sportbilly1976@lancearmstrong - Cadel riding strong in the Dauphine, Alberto too...should be a good TdF this year!
about 6 hours ago from web "

I'm sure the bookies will have read that too

takethehighroad

Save your money {apart from Betfair}

Lance Armstrong will never win the Tour again, and I'm willing to be quoted on that.

Bet365 have Frank at 50-1. Good odds each way if you ask me

volvine

i have changed my mind a few times lol so have a few betting slips lying around now lol at the moment though i have to say Sastre is looking fantastic value for money the problem i have is the bookies only pay out on the first 3 this in a 180(approx) horse race i think is a joke so i just had my picks to win

C.Sastre £20 at 18/1
A.Schleck £10 at 8/1
F.Schleck £2 at 28/1

hard to look past Contador though but thought the odds where crap so didn't bother