Gauging the top rider's chances...(minor spoilers)

donrhummy

So Di Luca has put the hammer down and is now 13 seconds in front and 51 over Levi. But with a 60+ KM TT, how do you guys think he'll do?

In 2007, in the Giro he won, here's how he fared in the TT's:

Stage 13: 3rd place but it was only 13 KM (8 seconds back)
Stage 20: 8th place for longer 43KM (1 min 57 seconds back) behind these guys:

1 Paolo Savoldelli 2 Eddy Mazzoleni 3 David Zabriskie 4 Laszlo Bodrogi 5 Marzio Bruseghin 6 Andy Schleck 7 Vincenzo Nibali

The interesting thing about this year's TT is that, while insanely long, it's closer to a road race since a bunch of guys are riding their regular bikes; it's very technical and hilly. I still think Levi's going to kick butt that stage but Di Luca might not lose as much time as he would in a normal 60 km TT.

Last year, Di Luca:

Stage 10: 19th, 2:11 back in 39.4 km
Stage 16: 9th, 1.45 back in 12.85 km
Stage 21: 112 th, 3.36 back in 28.5 km

It's hard to tell if he's more like last year's condition or 2007 because he actually was strong and pushing everyone last year but blew himself out towards the end (hence the 112th place).

What does everyone here think?

frenchfighter

Interesting stats here, thanks. I am very suprised that Schleck beat him in 2007! He still won the overall that year even with losing 2 mins, so if he limits his loses in the TT and continues performing in the mountains then he has a good chance of a podium.

I reckon Di Luca will lose about 4-6 minutes. I would say more if it was a regular pan falt TT but as you say, there are many hills and a lot of users on road bikes. Di Luca's position on a TT bike is pretty poor so if the contendors all use a road bike then he will have more of a chance. His form in this year's Giro has been impressive and even today he was attacking (not prolonged though) on the final short climb. I put that down a lot to him not rating his chances with the TT so wanting to have a chance of wearing the jersey at least for a few days. He really sprinted for the line today to try and get as many extra seconds as he could so definitely feeling a little nervous.

iainf72

I think we've seen 1 week of a 3 week race so it's too early to judge. All we know is who isn't in contention. Tuesday will tell us a lot and I expect some people to drop away.

I think Basso has been looking cool and playing it well. Levi, while he looks strong does make me think "WTF" from time to time. Di Luca - He usually has a bad day and it's bound to happen this time.

Sastre and Mechov are right up there and both know how to ride 3 week races. Lövkvist is a very interesting one. Perhaps he doesn't have it yet for 3 weeks but then he might be a surprise like Andy Schleck. And he can TT - I don't think the TT will be a sure thing for Levi. Mick Rogers - Dunno.

donrhummy

frenchfighter wrote:

Interesting stats here, thanks. I am very suprised that Schleck beat him in 2007! He still won the overall that year even with losing 2 mins, so if he limits his loses in the TT and continues performing in the mountains then he has a good chance of a podium.

I reckon Di Luca will lose about 4-6 minutes. I would say more if it was a regular pan falt TT but as you say, there are many hills and a lot of users on road bikes. Di Luca's position on a TT bike is pretty poor so if the contendors all use a road bike then he will have more of a chance. His form in this year's Giro has been impressive and even today he was attacking (not prolonged though) on the final short climb. I put that down a lot to him not rating his chances with the TT so wanting to have a chance of wearing the jersey at least for a few days. He really sprinted for the line today to try and get as many extra seconds as he could so definitely feeling a little nervous.

I agree. I think he's definitely feeling like he's going to lose a lot of time in the TT so he's sort of building up his time now. The problem with that is it's similar to what he did last year when he faded out at the end. I wonder if he perhaps thinks his fade out last year was due to TT and not going too hard earlier on. It miight be but I think the history/stats don't bear that out, since he did well in the TT's in 2007 and even in '08 until the last week. So I think that last year was more a factor of burning himself out than TT issues.

donrhummy

iainf72 wrote:

I think we've seen 1 week of a 3 week race so it's too early to judge. All we know is who isn't in contention. Tuesday will tell us a lot and I expect some people to drop away.

I think Basso has been looking cool and playing it well. Levi, while he looks strong does make me think "WTF" from time to time. Di Luca - He usually has a bad day and it's bound to happen this time.

Sastre and Mechov are right up there and both know how to ride 3 week races. Lövkvist is a very interesting one. Perhaps he doesn't have it yet for 3 weeks but then he might be a surprise like Andy Schleck. And he can TT - I don't think the TT will be a sure thing for Levi. Mick Rogers - Dunno.

I agree it's too early to tell for sure but it's more fun this way.

Sometimes I think Levi's weird moments come down to a lack of confidence in himself as a leader. I noticed that his best rides are when he's not really the leader or expected to beat everyone. I think that's why he had soo many bad moments as leader at Gerolsteiner just as he looked like he was contending for a possible podium spot. I think in particular he's convinced he can't handle pace-changes in the mountains so he doesn't even try. And while that limits his possible losses/risks, it never leaves him the chance to gain time or stay even. And I have seen him (when not the leader) able to handle a few pace changes (granted no where near as well as Contador but not as bad as he himself seems to think -- judging by interviews with him that I've read).

I do hope Levi wins though. it'd be a great story!

teagar

iainf72 wrote:

I think we've seen 1 week of a 3 week race so it's too early to judge. All we know is who isn't in contention. Tuesday will tell us a lot and I expect some people to drop away.

I think Basso has been looking cool and playing it well. Levi, while he looks strong does make me think "WTF" from time to time. Di Luca - He usually has a bad day and it's bound to happen this time.

Sastre and Mechov are right up there and both know how to ride 3 week races. Lövkvist is a very interesting one. Perhaps he doesn't have it yet for 3 weeks but then he might be a surprise like Andy Schleck. And he can TT - I don't think the TT will be a sure thing for Levi. Mick Rogers - Dunno.

I wouldn't under-estimate Di Luca too much. It is an odd year after all...

Bakunin

I think DiLuca has something to prove this year given that LPR has not been invited to many races outside of Italy. Also, he is motivated by the earthquake tragedy.

But it is true that he usually blows up, Basso looks very good and he did some damage in the mountains the other day.

If Levi is going to win a Grand Tour -- this is his best shot.

Vino2007

What are your views on Lance for the TT?

blazing_saddles

So, lets sum up the week's work. Were our two mountaintop finishes up to scratch?
Contenders after the TTT:-

1 Team Columbia - Highroad 21.50
2 Garmin - Slipstream 0.06
3 Astana 0.13
4 LPR Brakes - Farnese Vini 0.22
7 Rabobank 0.38
8 Liquigas 0.40
11 Cervelo TestTeam 0.49



1 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) LPR Brakes
(+40" bonuses) 33.13.35
2 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Team Columbia+8"TB 0.13 (-13")*
3 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia 0.44 (-36")
4 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 0.51 (-20")
5 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank+20"TB 0.58 (-22")
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas 1.14 (-16")
7 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 1.24 (-17")
*= overall loss on the week, after DDL's bonuses have been factored in.

Soooo, not a lot of change out of a week's racing around the Dolomites.
Then, along comes a 61km ITT........

I'm not sure if stage 12 will act like a detonator for exploding the rest of the race into action, or turn the GC into a very limited contest.

I suspect some of the time difference will be huge.

alanmcn1

I've cycled that TT course while on holiday in Monterosso last year.............I'd say a good ardennes classics rider will have a strong TT on that course.............it's evil

iainf72

Did anyone think Levi looked on the rivet a bit yesterday?

blazing_saddles

iainf72 wrote:

Did anyone think Levi looked on the rivet a bit yesterday?

Would you be referring to the top of the last two climbs per chance?

SpaceJunk

iainf72 wrote:

Did anyone think Levi looked on the rivet a bit yesterday?

I did. Then again I thought Basso was and, even though he got third, Di Luca looked tired.

Menchov in comparison had a quite day, and I thought Rogers actually looked okay.

Speaking of which - (and I know it's a change of subject), but did Columbia get the finish wrong yesterday?

Di Luca got third place yesterday over Rogers and increased his lead by an extra 8 seconds.

If EBH didn't sprint and Di Luca got 2nd, Rogers 3rd - he would have only increased his lead by 4 seconds + Rogers would've got 8 seconds on Menchov, Sastre, Levi etc

I know we are only talking a small margin of time, but as someone would say, every seconds count.

What do you think?

micron

Menchov certainly thought so and reported as much on the Rabo site. Di Luca said that Leipheimer's attack was 'no cause for panic' - the feeling seemed to be, as don points out, Leipheimer exhibiting a lack of confidence - which of course simply gives your rivals hope. Leipheimer isn't the greatest descender either, so he may not make as much time on a rider like Di Luca as he assumes.

Having said which I heartily expect Leipheimer to be in pink, and for there to be some massive time gaps - just that the GC time gaps might not be as pronounced as thought.

alan, if it's like an Ardennes classic that must work in Di Luca's favour - provided he doesn't have his bad day.

frenchfighter

Don't forget that Basso has recced the course about three times.

donrhunny - I agree about Levi and not being designated leader...just look at Vuelta a Castilla y León. Contador was the leader (although I know not out-right) and Levi won.

micron

Wasn't that more about 'you scratch my bike' though? Contador lets Leipheimer have the win to buy his loyalty for the Tour (can't you imagine JB putting it that way anyway?)

redddraggon

SpaceJunk wrote:

Di Luca looked tired.

Di Luca always looks tired

frenchfighter

micron wrote:

Wasn't that more about 'you scratch my bike' though? Contador lets Leipheimer have the win to buy his loyalty for the Tour (can't you imagine JB putting it that way anyway?)

Possibly...Contador could have taken enough time to win on one of the later stages but didn't even attack or go with the attacks.

As for Di Luca - his look of tiredness is why they call him the killer.

donrhummy

I think Levi has to end this TT on thursday about 1:15 or so ahead of Danilo. In the later mountain stages, I can see Levi losing about 1:30 to Danilo and in the last TT (15.3km) I can see Levi pulling back about 15 seconds or so.

It's not going to be easy because that means Levi needs to beat Danilo by more than 2 minutes on thursday. And on this course: (with added twists and turns)

PROFILE:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... 2_alt.html


TWISTS AND TURNS:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Girodit ... an_FIN.jpg