Cav a contender for the Paris-Roubaix?

jamieh5463

Anyone think that Cavendish has quite a good chance of winning the Paris-Roubaix this year? after him winning the Milan-Sanremo.

redddraggon

If chooses the right break, why not?

timoid.

Its a complete unknown how he handles the cobbles. Does he have the concentration?

Would be nice to see him try.

iainf72

He looks too small to me, but he's said he'd like to win it so I wouldn't put it past him.

Maybe not yet though?

It better rain next Sunday. I'm sick of the dustbowl flavoured Hell.

teagar

I don't think he has the strength. There arn't as many tactics in Paris Roubaix (save the 2007 Roubaix, but that was unusual!) as there are in say, de ronde or San Remo, simply because the course makes such an extreme natural selection.

Having said that, I said a similar thing about Cavendish before Milan San Remo, saying 300km is far too long for him at that age and he can't climb at all... :oops:

Oh dear.

afx237vi

^ Exactly. Everyone - me included - said he had no chance of winning MSR, so who knows what he can do on cobbles?

Monty Dog

Maybe in the future, yes, but unlikely this year - he probably doesn't have the strength. Getting to Roubaix is very different to San Remo, riding on the pave is a singular effort - sitting on a wheel makes little difference from the pounding from the stones. Rarely, do riders succeed or finish highly on their first event - knowleedge is key to know the course and the lines through each sector which you can only get through experience.

disgruntledgoat

Monty Dog wrote:

Maybe in the future, yes, but unlikely this year - he probably doesn't have the strength. Getting to Roubaix is very different to San Remo, riding on the pave is a singular effort - sitting on a wheel makes little difference from the pounding from the stones. Rarely, do riders succeed or finish highly on their first event - knowleedge is key to know the course and the lines through each sector which you can only get through experience.

I recall one T. Boonen putting together a fabulous 1st effort a years back... Leaving his team leader in a ditch to finish 3rd.

pb21

disgruntledgoat wrote:

Monty Dog wrote:

Maybe in the future, yes, but unlikely this year - he probably doesn't have the strength. Getting to Roubaix is very different to San Remo, riding on the pave is a singular effort - sitting on a wheel makes little difference from the pounding from the stones. Rarely, do riders succeed or finish highly on their first event - knowleedge is key to know the course and the lines through each sector which you can only get through experience.

I recall one T. Boonen putting together a fabulous 1st effort a years back... Leaving his team leader in a ditch to finish 3rd.

Yes but he probably already had more experience on the cobbles than Cavendish?

disgruntledgoat

I should coco.

But that wasn't the point I was making... It was a nostalgic recollection.

moray_gub

afx237vi wrote:

^ Exactly. Everyone - me included - said he had no chance of winning MSR, so who knows what he can do on cobbles?

Likewise i didnt think he could win MSR either , the biggest problem i see for him winning Roubaix would be other riders wouldnt want to get to the velodrome with him in tow so if he was in the lead group i think he would be attacked all the way to the finish. Just like Cancellara and Ballan did to Boonen last year :-)

dave_1

I think he'll be up there...he's good enough to race without a team. I think he could win this year

afx237vi

Moray Gub wrote:

afx237vi wrote:

^ Exactly. Everyone - me included - said he had no chance of winning MSR, so who knows what he can do on cobbles?

Likewise i didnt think he could win MSR either , the biggest problem i see for him winning Roubaix would be other riders wouldnt want to get to the velodrome with him in tow so if he was in the lead group i think he would be attacked all the way to the finish. Just like Cancellara and Ballan did to Boonen last year :-)

Yeah, but what about 2005? We had the world's best sprinter in Boonen being towed to the velodrome by Flecha and Hincapie.

greasedscotsman

jamieh5463 wrote:

Anyone think that Cavendish has quite a good chance of winning the Paris-Roubaix this year? after him winning the Milan-Sanremo.

How well does Erik Zabel know Paris Roubaix...

blazing_saddles

Wouldn't he need Hincapie to get him to the final velodrome straight for the sprint?
Judging from today's performance, I'm not sure Big George is up to the job. :roll:

dave_1

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Wouldn't he need Hincapie to get him to the final velodrome straight for the sprint?
Judging from today's performance, I'm not sure Big George is up to the job. :roll:

that would be an interesting situation...have a feeling Cav's sprint won't be quite so good by the end, so but then Hincapie can't afford a sprint against most of the potential winners so he will have to attack...invisible today from what I coud make out, but he crashed at the end

cougie

I dont think he'll do it - he'll be bounced all over the place on the cobbles.

Of course - I'd be more than happy for him to prove me wrong !

blazing_saddles

When the likes of Flecha start attacking 40/50kms from the finish, it becomes mano a mano.
Can't see it myself.

zormik

If you think Cavendish can win PR, omg.

PR is a race for the big guys. The strong flemish types with a huge engine.
Cavendish doesn't fall under that category.

Riding on cobbles is a specialty and you need to do that with a big gear, pure on force, or you dance around on them like mad, on top of that you can't be a light guy. Look at all the people who specialised in PR, its all the big heavy guys like Museeuw, Van Peteghem, Cancellara, Boonen, Devolder. Cavendish isn't heavy and strong enough to ever compete with the big guys for these races.

This race is for the likes of Boonen, Devolder, Cancellara. Big, strong drivers with a huge engine.

Boonen by example isn't in the first place a sprinter, he's a classics racer who on top of that can sprint quite decently.

nick hanson

Some interesting posts above.
People fall into the trap of saying it's one for the big Rouleurs,etc etc,Cav wont have a sprint at the end,etc etc.
Didn't a certain Sean Kelly win it a couple of times?
Admittedly,you wouldn't put your house on Cav being there at the finale,but don't think anyone realistically thought he'd be there after the Poggio.
That talk of Boonen being attacked all the way to the finish by Cancellara & Ballan,I LOVE the sarcasm.
I complained on here about Cancellara & Ballan giving Boonen an armchair ride to the finish last year,& was shot down with all comments saying neither of them had any option.

flattythehurdler

Dave_1 wrote:

I think he'll be up there...he's good enough to race without a team. I think he could win this year

I would LOVE him to win it (he is after all half way to Irish), but he needed his team and then some to win the MSR, and many of his other sprints just for the set up. I can't see him doing it without significant help. Any rider also needs a lot of luck on the day, or at least a large absence of bad luck. I don't think it's for him. Hope I'm wrong.

flattythehurdler

nick hanson wrote:

Some interesting posts above.
People fall into the trap of saying it's one for the big Rouleurs,etc etc,Cav wont have a sprint at the end,etc etc.
Didn't a certain Sean Kelly win it a couple of times?
Admittedly,you wouldn't put your house on Cav being there at the finale,but don't think anyone realistically thought he'd be there after the Poggio.
That talk of Boonen being attacked all the way to the finish by Cancellara & Ballan,I LOVE the sarcasm.
I complained on here about Cancellara & Ballan giving Boonen an armchair ride to the finish last year,& was shot down with all comments saying neither of them had any option.

Sean Kelly is like a force of nature.

zormik

nick hanson wrote:

Some interesting posts above.
People fall into the trap of saying it's one for the big Rouleurs,etc etc,Cav wont have a sprint at the end,etc etc.
Didn't a certain Sean Kelly win it a couple of times?
Admittedly,you wouldn't put your house on Cav being there at the finale,but don't think anyone realistically thought he'd be there after the Poggio.
That talk of Boonen being attacked all the way to the finish by Cancellara & Ballan,I LOVE the sarcasm.
I complained on here about Cancellara & Ballan giving Boonen an armchair ride to the finish last year,& was shot down with all comments saying neither of them had any option.

No offense, but i see the talking about Cavendish for ever winning PR as a bit of chauvinism, with in itself is a beautiful thing though.

I'm flemish, and well flemish cycling freaks are prolly the worst ever lol. So i do understand this very much.

The thing i want to add though, is that you cannot compare Milan San Remo at ALL with the tour of flanders and Paris Roubaix. Yes, you have types who can win both classics, several did, but in the first place they all were of the stronger & heavy type. Winning The tour of Flanders and PR means you probably also can win MSR. Winning MSR doesn't at all mean you can win the tour of Flanders or PR. Riding on Cobbles and the steep cobbled hills in flanders (north of france is also called Flanders) are the mosth harsh and unforgiving one-day races where you have to be TOP the entire race. You have to ride in the front, battle for you place for the last 100km, riding on the small roads is a race in itself, because you always have to position yourself with the 10 first everytime you reach the cobbles or a hill.

On top of that you have to be very strong to be able to turn around the huge gear which requires a lot of weight and pure force. Next to that you have to be experienced with riding on cobbles which is not an easy feat. Flemish racers are grown up with this, hence they often win the tour of flanders and Paris Roubaix, they specialise for these races even at a young age.

Cavendish imo is just too small and light and his engine is not like the likes of Boonen, Cancellara, Devolder. In Milan San Remo you just follow and only the last 10km matters. In PR and Tour of flanders, it's the last 100km where you have to battle in the front in much harsher circumstances.

eh

Hmm, in all this talk of heavy riders winning don't forget Stuart O'Grady won recently and he isn't big.

I don't think Cav's biggest problem will be getting over the cobbles, his biggest problem will be being in the right place at the right time and getting the tactics right. Also i'm sure after Boonen's comment prior to MSR no one will under estimate Cav now.

dave_1

flattythehurdler wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

I think he'll be up there...he's good enough to race without a team. I think he could win this year

I would LOVE him to win it (he is after all half way to Irish), but he needed his team and then some to win the MSR, and many of his other sprints just for the set up. I can't see him doing it without significant help. Any rider also needs a lot of luck on the day, or at least a large absence of bad luck. I don't think it's for him. Hope I'm wrong.

it was seeing him off the front in a break in the ToB last year...got me thinking this is not a guy who sits around behind a train of his team...also willing to race unlike Pettachi and Cipo usually...and seeing the way he handled himself towards the end of San remo, as well as the similarity in duration of efforts between points race and cobbled sectors...makes me think he can put in the efforts and recover. One needs to be very strong for the cobbles...to have ridden them many years in a row is an advantage but not a huge one...it's being tired, slowing down and then sinking into them as your slowing kills off your speed...that's my memory. It's not all experience... I see Hincapie as an issue though. Say he feels great 3 days ago, then admits he didn't feel good...what will he tell cav?

timoid.

Zabel came close in the past, he's not that dissimilar to Cav in terms of build.

I wouldn't entirely write him off though I admit its a long shot

andyp

Ballan doesn't exactly fit the idea of a northern Classics rider yet he's won Flanders and finished on the podium at Roubaix.

Cavendish is young and may develop into a northern Classics rider, but he might have to sacrifice some of his top end sprinting speed to do so. Taking that step is a big gamble for any rider.

zormik

What has Cavendish EVER shown in the hard races of the north? I'll tell you: nothing (I'm not speaking of the easy races with few or no cobbles and / or hills). In races like that you can't rely on your sprint, you'll just have to be the strongest racer.

Boonen was 2 years younger then Cavendish now is when he already became 3rd in PR.
Ballan and O'Grady also won other races, they don't need to rely on a sprint cause they're strong enough to make the difference without relying on a sprint.

For Milan San Remo you just have to be the fastest sprinter. I mean if even Petacchi and Cippolini won that race. Cavendish is the best sprinter i've ever seen, but that's all i've ever seen from him.

And then to immiadetly think he can win PR, one of the hardest races there is. with all due respect, be realistic

marinerrr

zormik wrote:

What has Cavendish EVER shown in the hard races of the north? I'll tell you: nothing

To be fair, as far as I know Cavendish has never even ridden Flanders or Roubaix, so that's a bit harsh.
He won't win this year, and he maybe never will, but I wouldn't rule him out entirely until he actually has ridden the races either. It'll be interesting to see how he gets on if he rides Roubaix on Sunday, as I saw in this week's Cycling Weekly that he said it was a race he definitely wanted to win some day.

frenchfighter

All I can say is I am really looking forward to seeing him there. Regardless of whether he wins I am sure he will give it his all. Adding more top contenders into the mix will make it more exciting for us spectators.

Don't forget that Boonen is the boss when it comes to the cobbles yet he is also a top-end sprinter, so to say that that sprinting speed needs to be sacrificed isn't necessarily true.

"Let me tell you, though - there's a huge difference between Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. They're not even close to the same. In one, the cobbles are used every day by the cars, and kept up, and stuff like that. The other one - it's completely different ... The best I could do would be to describe it like this - they plowed a dirt road, flew over it with a helicopter, and then just dropped a bunch of rocks out of the helicopter! That's Paris-Roubaix. It's that bad - it's ridiculous." - Chris Horner

For reference, the heights and weights of the 20** winners and Cav:

Cav: 1.75m 69kg
Ballan: 1.9m 72kg
Boonen: 1.93m 82kg
O'Grady: 1.76m 73kg
Cancellara: 1.85m 80kg
Backstedt: 1.93m 94kg
Van Petegem: 1.76m 70kg
Knaven: 1.78m 70kg
Museeuw: 1.85m 75kg

frenchfighter

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