Could Cavendish win the TDF ????

tobh
tobh Posts: 103
edited March 2009 in Pro race
Sorry. I'm kinda new to this road bkiing business.

But, could Cavendish win the TDF

I know he, supposedly, cant do the climbs, but....

Comments

  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    No, he can't.

    He can't climb and is not the right kind of rider to be win grand tours. He'll be able to get a clutch of stages but he's not one to finish high overall.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    tobh wrote:
    Sorry. I'm kinda new to this road bkiing business.

    But, could Cavendish win the TDF

    I know he, supposedly, cant do the climbs, but....

    There's "not being able to climb" and then there's being a sprinter. Sprinters generally finish 2 to 3 hours behind the winner of the Tour de France. They're in different leagues altogether.
  • TheStone
    TheStone Posts: 2,291
    Yes, if everyone else retired before the end. Otherwise no.

    He'll have a great shout at the green (sprinters) jersey in his career - maybe soon.
    I'd expect them to set up the 2012 olympic road race course to suit him.
    exercise.png
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    The best he can hope for is becoming a Kelly-esque rider, but thar's only with A LOT of work in the next 5 years
  • Anonymous
    Anonymous Posts: 79,667
    Maybe the World Champs or a Green Jersey, but never the TdF. Completely different type of riders win grand tours...
  • tobh
    tobh Posts: 103
    so. again, please ignore this - possibly silly question- but is there anyone British who could win it ?
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,821
    Ben Swift(Katyusha) and Johnny Bellis(Saxo Bank) are two to look out for.

    Don't know much about him but apparantly Ian Stannard (ISD) is half decent
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    Just to be clear here - just because he will never win the Tour, that doesn't make him any less of a great rider. He's just a different type.

    Think of it like different types of footballers - just because Paolo Maldini never scored a hat-trick doesn't make him a rubbish footballer. He just excelled on a different part of the pitch.
  • Kléber
    Kléber Posts: 6,842
    Is there a Brit capable of winning? Yes, but they are probably working in a factory or sitting in an office and totally unaware of their talent.
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    There are four jerseys to win in the Tour de France.

    The green jersey is the one that Cav will chase. It's for the sprinters and is based on gaining points, rather than setting the best time.
    The polka dot jersey is for the king of the mountains, and as the name suggests, is for climbers. Again it is won on a points basis, with more points available on tougher climbs.
    The yellow jersey is for all-rounders, who can climb and time trial well, and is done simply on the quickest time.
    The white jersey is for young cyclists who could target the yellow or polka dot jersey in the future.

    Any rider who wins one of these jerseys is a fantastic, top quality rider, but as has been said elsewhere in this thread, they are different types. If Mark Cavendish were a 200m runner, Carlos Sastre or Alberto Contador would be a marathon runner.
  • warrior4life
    warrior4life Posts: 925
    If in 1995 you'd asked "could lance armstrong win the tour de france?" you would have heard the same thing.... Anythings possible, i dont think he ever will though.
  • mididoctors2
    mididoctors2 Posts: 96
    no
  • alanmcn1
    alanmcn1 Posts: 531
    I've got more chance of shiting a gold ingot
    Robert Millar for knighthood
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    tobh wrote:
    Sorry. I'm kinda new to this road bkiing business.

    But, could Cavendish win the TDF

    I know he, supposedly, cant do the climbs, but....
    You might have read that he now is capable of 'climbs', after Milan-San Remo, so a reasonable question for someone new to cycling. The difference though is the length of the climbs. While sprinters (like Cavendish) can become very good at going up short steep climbs (like in Milan - San Remo or the Flemish classics), for which you mostly need power, which sprinters have in abundance, they will never become good at long climbs like in the Alps. On those sprinters tend to lose lots of time, and any chance of ever winning the Tour de France.
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    warrior4life wrote:
    If in 1995 you'd asked "could lance armstrong win the tour de france?" you would have heard the same thing.... Anythings possible, i dont think he ever will though.

    By 1995, Armstrong had already been world champion, won and finished 2nd in San Sebastian, finished 2nd in L-B-L and 4th in the Vuelta.

    Although he wasn't a world beater at that point, he had already shown the potential of a good climber / grand tour rider.
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    afx237vi wrote:
    warrior4life wrote:
    If in 1995 you'd asked "could lance armstrong win the tour de france?" you would have heard the same thing.... Anythings possible, i dont think he ever will though.

    By 1995, Armstrong had already been world champion, won and finished 2nd in San Sebastian, finished 2nd in L-B-L and 4th in the Vuelta.

    Although he wasn't a world beater at that point, he had already shown the potential of a good climber / grand tour rider.

    bit later than 95 for vuelta... IIRC 1998?
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    afx237vi wrote:
    warrior4life wrote:
    If in 1995 you'd asked "could lance armstrong win the tour de france?" you would have heard the same thing.... Anythings possible, i dont think he ever will though.

    By 1995, Armstrong had already been world champion, won and finished 2nd in San Sebastian, finished 2nd in L-B-L and 4th in the Vuelta.

    Although he wasn't a world beater at that point, he had already shown the potential of a good climber / grand tour rider.

    bit later than 95 for vuelta... IIRC 1998?
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    Sorry, my mistake - the Vuelta was after his comeback.
  • vision267
    vision267 Posts: 149
    Short answer is NO.I was in Cork last year Cav refused st Patrick's hill.He is still young and he seems to be a much better climber than given credit for.He is a little bit like Sean Kelly and the one day classics and shorts tours are his best chance of glory.
  • Ash_
    Ash_ Posts: 385
    mididoctors wrote:
    bit later than 95 for vuelta... IIRC 1998?

    Fair enough, but he did win the Tour DuPont before cancer. Whilst not one of cyclings major stage races, it still needed consistency.

    In fact, I think he won it by doing a good time trial (using a Lotus bike badged as an Eddy Merckx!) and preventing rivals from gaining time on what few climbs there were.

    My point being, as with afx237vi above, that his post-cancer tour-winning form did not come from out of thin air.
  • redddraggon
    redddraggon Posts: 10,862
    Cav could win the TdF, but they'd have to start giving out 30min time bonuses for flat stages, (and not give any for mountain stages)
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  • mrushton
    mrushton Posts: 5,182
    No to the TdF but yes to the world Championship, the Green Jersey and Classic races such as he has just won. He is a perfect example of someone who excels with a strong team around him to get him to the launch point.
    M.Rushton
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    Ash_ wrote:
    mididoctors wrote:
    bit later than 95 for vuelta... IIRC 1998?

    Fair enough, but he did win the Tour DuPont before cancer. Whilst not one of cyclings major stage races, it still needed consistency.

    In fact, I think he won it by doing a good time trial (using a Lotus bike badged as an Eddy Merckx!) and preventing rivals from gaining time on what few climbs there were.

    My point being, as with afx237vi above, that his post-cancer tour-winning form did not come from out of thin air.

    if cav was 23 riding in 95 along with LA and you asked me who would have the better chance I would have said LA...but i still wouldn't have thought of it...

    though the tests did reveal his incredible recovery rates early on..

    discussed on eurosport as far back as 1994 tour IIRC (might have been 95? can't be 93 as i was standing next to road that yr).... He went for a ride in the alps to figure out where he was with the mountains... got picked up by the indurain gruppetto. 2/3rds into the stage without attracting much attention. I think he climbed off?

    seems like a 1000 yrs ago
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • kickerbri
    kickerbri Posts: 53
    About the only stage race I think Cav could win is Tour of Qatar, maybe even Tour of Britain. Plenty of sprinters jerseys available for him but his inability to climb will count against him in any stage race where the road points skyward.
  • DaveyL
    DaveyL Posts: 5,167
    Reminds me of a story about a pro golfer (can't remember who) when asked by a journo before the final round what he'd need to shoot to win. "The rest of the field", he replied.
    Le Blaireau (1)
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    It's interesting that Kelly is mentioned because he started his career as a sprinter and went on to perform really well in grand tours (OK, he performed well in everything). Not suggesting Cavendish will do the same but although has a sprinters engine it's not like his build is so much against him, like with Cipo etc.
    http://cyclinganddesign.blogspot.fr/

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