Evans going bust?

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Comments

  • wildmoustache
    wildmoustache Posts: 4,010
    spen666 wrote:
    wildmoustache wrote:
    ...
    Yes - I must get down there and buy a bicycle before they go under! :wink:

    Fundamentally Evans are in a strong position but as others have said with the cost of debt and stock rising, and lower than anticipated demand from consumers it will be a much tougher year than they would have forecast a year ago.


    Where does the "lower than anticipated demand from consumers " come from?

    I thought bike shops were seeing an upturn in their business as people turn from cars to bikes

    spen - you're a lawyer, not a businessman :wink:

    rapid growth in market leads to forecast of further rapid growth and consequent investment.

    recession means sales undershoot forecast.
  • spen666
    spen666 Posts: 17,709
    wildmoustache wrote:
    spen666 wrote:
    wildmoustache wrote:
    ...
    Yes - I must get down there and buy a bicycle before they go under! :wink:

    Fundamentally Evans are in a strong position but as others have said with the cost of debt and stock rising, and lower than anticipated demand from consumers it will be a much tougher year than they would have forecast a year ago.


    Where does the "lower than anticipated demand from consumers " come from?

    I thought bike shops were seeing an upturn in their business as people turn from cars to bikes

    spen - you're a lawyer, not a businessman :wink:

    rapid growth in market leads to forecast of further rapid growth and consequent investment.
    recession means sales undershoot forecast.

    Where do you get the idea that Evans have forecast "further rapid growth " and where do you get the information from that sales have undershot the forecast?

    Sources please? ( no, Not HP & Heinz)
    Want to know the Spen666 behind the posts?
    Then read MY BLOG @ http://www.pebennett.com

    Twittering @spen_666
  • wildmoustache
    wildmoustache Posts: 4,010
    spen666 wrote:
    wildmoustache wrote:
    spen666 wrote:
    wildmoustache wrote:
    ...
    Yes - I must get down there and buy a bicycle before they go under! :wink:

    Fundamentally Evans are in a strong position but as others have said with the cost of debt and stock rising, and lower than anticipated demand from consumers it will be a much tougher year than they would have forecast a year ago.


    Where does the "lower than anticipated demand from consumers " come from?

    I thought bike shops were seeing an upturn in their business as people turn from cars to bikes

    spen - you're a lawyer, not a businessman :wink:

    rapid growth in market leads to forecast of further rapid growth and consequent investment.
    recession means sales undershoot forecast.

    Where do you get the idea that Evans have forecast "further rapid growth " and where do you get the information from that sales have undershot the forecast?

    Sources please? ( no, Not HP & Heinz)

    to be clear ... that is speculation. Apologies if my initial comments mislead you. :wink:

    however, if they haven't forecast rapid growth then their store expansion programme is utterly perverse
  • spen666
    spen666 Posts: 17,709
    wildmoustache wrote:
    ...

    to be clear ... that is speculation. Apologies if my initial comments mislead you. :wink:

    however, if they haven't forecast rapid growth then their store expansion programme is utterly perverse

    Cheers for that- I wondered where the "info" had come from. I was thinking I had not heard any such media stories


    Cheers
    Want to know the Spen666 behind the posts?
    Then read MY BLOG @ http://www.pebennett.com

    Twittering @spen_666
  • wildmoustache
    wildmoustache Posts: 4,010
    spen666 wrote:
    wildmoustache wrote:
    ...

    to be clear ... that is speculation. Apologies if my initial comments mislead you. :wink:

    however, if they haven't forecast rapid growth then their store expansion programme is utterly perverse

    Cheers for that- I wondered where the "info" had come from. I was thinking I had not heard any such media stories


    Cheers

    I think the media would struggle to grasp the concept that a 5% increase in bike sales might be quite harmful for a store that has taken a bet on a 15% increase in bike sales.

    I have certainly heard comments from a couple of people I know in the industry that 2008 ended miserably and 2009 has begun even worse.
  • Gazzaputt
    Gazzaputt Posts: 3,227
    Maybe nothing but I notice that Evans haven't had their normal double page ads in the Cycling weekly for a few weeks.
  • Justpush
    Justpush Posts: 52
    spen666 wrote:
    wildmoustache wrote:
    ...

    to be clear ... that is speculation. Apologies if my initial comments mislead you. :wink:

    however, if they haven't forecast rapid growth then their store expansion programme is utterly perverse

    Cheers for that- I wondered where the "info" had come from. I was thinking I had not heard any such media stories


    Cheers

    Are Evans owned by a private investment company?
  • Monty Dog
    Monty Dog Posts: 20,614
    Yup, they were a family firm until a few years ago until they were sold to some venture capitalists, primarily to attract additional investment to fund their ambitious expansion programme.
    Make mine an Italian, with Campagnolo on the side..
  • schlepcycling
    schlepcycling Posts: 1,614
    The private equity firm Active Private Equity bought a majority stake in Evans in April(ish) 2008......this same firm seems to own a stake in Rapha http://www.apeq.co.uk/
    'Hello to Jason Isaacs'
  • flattythehurdler
    flattythehurdler Posts: 2,314
    As part owner of an lbs (long story), and knowing the Evan's location in the city, I would imagine that the ground rents they must be paying could place them in danger. Total supposition, but with wiggle selling more and more brands, without any of the high street overheads, I suspect they are biting deep into shops which rely on sales.
    Dan
  • Justpush
    Justpush Posts: 52
    Yes, I agree my thoughts also.
    Especially if they money they've borrowed to expand has been put on their balance sheets, ala Man U, Liverpool etc.

    Personally I think their business model is quite flawed.
    They have forgotten that the cycling community has always been a hive of communication.
    Crap service rarely survives, as empire direct going under today shows.

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