Is Hincapie deluded?

andyp

I've just read the following statement by Hincapie in a report on www.cyclingnews.com today;

Big George wrote:

"It's a race that I have unfinished business with, and in my opinion, there's nobody better than me in that race. It's just a question of how I finish things off and having good luck,"

Hmm, no-one better than you George? Really? How about Tom Boonen who has won it twice and finished on the podium twice. Or Fabian Cancellara who has won it once, finished second once and fourth once. Both of these guys are in their late twenties so will have more opportunities to improve on their records.

Hincapie, in contrast, is 35 and his best result is a 2nd place finish, his only podium finish, and he has maybe 2 more years where he'll have any chance of doing well.

I don't know what Bob is feeding them over at Colombia but it's clearly affecting their minds.

DaveyL

I saw that this morning too and chortled, but "Athlete in talking-himself-up shocker" is hardly headline news, is it?

calvjones

Would there be any point turning up if he didn't believe that?

I'm sure Flecha et al would spout exactly the same crap if the Anlgophone media turned up every single day at training camp and shoved a mic at them.

At least its a story
a) not about Astana
b) About a Classic

brownbosh

Does anyne rememebr in 2006 TDF when Paul Sherwen asked him who was going to win the tour? He got all handbaggy and said 'ME OF COURSE'. As they say - the rest is history!

iainf72

andyp wrote:

I don't know what Bob is feeding them over at Colombia but it's clearly affecting their minds.

If you've read any of the advertorials in the recent magazines, I think he's feeding them high school level physcology and wide eyed optimism.

Didn't Columbia make shoddy equipment choices this year at PR?

leguape

iainf72 wrote:

andyp wrote:

I don't know what Bob is feeding them over at Colombia but it's clearly affecting their minds.

If you've read any of the advertorials in the recent magazines, I think he's feeding them high school level physcology and wide eyed optimism.

Didn't Columbia make shoddy equipment choices this year at PR?

I thought that was Garmin. Which idiot persuaded Backstedt that deep section carbon rimmed Zipps were the way to get across Arenberg? Or maybe it was both of them.

Monty Dog

I'm keeping out of this one....everyone knows I'm Georgie's biggest fan-boy NOT!

meagain

Surely any professional sports-person HAS to have that level of self-belief - no point in turning up else.

afx237vi

meagain wrote:

Surely any professional sports-person HAS to have that level of self-belief - no point in turning up else.

Cycling is a strange sport though. What percentage of riders on the start line of Paris-Roubaix have a realistic chance of winning? 200 riders, maybe 20 of them who can actually win. The other 180 know they can't win and don't even try - they have other jobs to do.

The Tour de France has even fewer riders who can win.

Kléber

iainf72 wrote:

Didn't Columbia make shoddy equipment choices this year at PR?

They could be making some elementary mistakes for the 2009 season. I've heard of compact frames but...

iainf72

afx237vi wrote:

Cycling is a strange sport though. What percentage of riders on the start line of Paris-Roubaix have a realistic chance of winning? 200 riders, maybe 20 of them who can actually win.

And Hincapie is one of those riders. He can win, he's certainly in the upper echelon of riders on the stones.

But saying there is nobody better - That's almost, but not quite, as funny as when Wiggins claimed he could've gone with the leading group at PR some years ago. You look at Boonen and Cancellera and can imagine they were born on a wagon being pulled across nothern france and the first sensation they experienced was being bounced around by the pave.

FJS

afx237vi wrote:

meagain wrote:

Surely any professional sports-person HAS to have that level of self-belief - no point in turning up else.

Cycling is a strange sport though. What percentage of riders on the start line of Paris-Roubaix have a realistic chance of winning? 200 riders, maybe 20 of them who can actually win. The other 180 know they can't win and don't even try - they have other jobs to do.

IMHO it's the opposite; compared to other endurance sports road in most cycling races an extraordinary amount of participants has a chance of winning; marathons, rowing, track cycling, skiing, F1, swimming are all much more predictable. Allmost the whole field of 180 or so riders at the start of a flattish TdF stage has some chance of winning. No other sport has that. Even extremely selective rides as Paris-Roubaix; remember Guesdon?
Yes, a Grand Tour general classement may be more restricted, but how many teams have a realistic chance of winning the premier league or rugby world cup or F1 championship?
it's what makes road cycling (apart from TTs) so interesting.

afx237vi

FJS wrote:

afx237vi wrote:

meagain wrote:

Surely any professional sports-person HAS to have that level of self-belief - no point in turning up else.

Cycling is a strange sport though. What percentage of riders on the start line of Paris-Roubaix have a realistic chance of winning? 200 riders, maybe 20 of them who can actually win. The other 180 know they can't win and don't even try - they have other jobs to do.

IMHO it's the opposite; compared to other endurance sports road in most cycling races an extraordinary amount of participants has a chance of winning; marathons, rowing, track cycling, skiing, F1, swimming are all much more predictable. Allmost the whole field of 180 or so riders at the start of a flattish TdF stage has some chance of winning. No other sport has that. Even extremely selective rides as Paris-Roubaix; remember Guesdon?
Yes, a Grand Tour general classement may be more restricted, but how many teams have a realistic chance of winning the premier league or rugby world cup or F1 championship?
it's what makes road cycling (apart from TTs) so interesting.

Fair point. I didn't think about it like that. You could also mention Dirk Demol or Magnus Backstedt, I guess.

But I think the point still stands, in that some cyclists enter races with no intentions of winning. I'm another one reading "A Dog in a Hat" at the moment, and it's interesting that Joe Parkin (the author) is able to identify the exact moment in his career when he forgets trying to win races and accepts his role as a domestique.

FJS

afx237vi wrote:

FJS wrote:

afx237vi wrote:

meagain wrote:

Surely any professional sports-person HAS to have that level of self-belief - no point in turning up else.

Cycling is a strange sport though. What percentage of riders on the start line of Paris-Roubaix have a realistic chance of winning? 200 riders, maybe 20 of them who can actually win. The other 180 know they can't win and don't even try - they have other jobs to do.

IMHO it's the opposite; compared to other endurance sports road in most cycling races an extraordinary amount of participants has a chance of winning; marathons, rowing, track cycling, skiing, F1, swimming are all much more predictable. Allmost the whole field of 180 or so riders at the start of a flattish TdF stage has some chance of winning. No other sport has that. Even extremely selective rides as Paris-Roubaix; remember Guesdon?
Yes, a Grand Tour general classement may be more restricted, but how many teams have a realistic chance of winning the premier league or rugby world cup or F1 championship?
it's what makes road cycling (apart from TTs) so interesting.

Fair point. I didn't think about it like that. You could also mention Dirk Demol or Magnus Backstedt, I guess.

But I think the point still stands, in that some cyclists enter races with no intentions of winning. I'm another one reading "A Dog in a Hat" at the moment, and it's interesting that Joe Parkin (the author) is able to identify the exact moment in his career when he forgets trying to win races and accepts his role as a domestique.

It's a funny sport... on the one hand very unpredictable, and on the other very hierarchically organized...

ms_tree

IMHO Hincapie and Roubaix are the same as ThatMan and Ventour - it won't happen!

(Of course come July I may have :oops: )

Le Commentateur

As well as sponsor PR and the self-motivational thing, it's part of the psychological game between opponents.

I was talking yesterday about this with a commenator who was a biathlete at olympic level, and he was saying that you can't ever show weakness or uncertainty to your rivals. It feeds their confidence, whether it is before an event (like now), mid-season, or during a multi-day event when fatigue and injury are factors.

Whether or not Hincapie really believes that he can win it, it's important that his rivals think that he can – it could put them on the defensive at a crucial moment, especially if they doubt themselves – so in that respect you won't ever hear an honest assessment of chances from someone ahead of their targeted race. Getting rivals to regard you as a contender is the first part of a battle of which the race itself is only the final stage.

The advantage Hincapie has with this particular event is that luck can be said to play a larger role than in other bike races, so that his previous results cannot wholly be held against him as an indication of future prospects -- instead people can look back and think 'hmm, perhaps if his steerer tube hadn't snapped, or if he hadn't punctured at just that point in the race, he might have been up for the win". In that respect there is a touch of genius in a second-rater picking this race as a main target.

OffTheBackAdam

He's got the build and ability to win across the pave and it's a race that needs more than the usual degree of luck, or rather lack of bad luck (Puncture, crash or mechanical at just the wrong time) to win.
If he's got the form on the day and the first-string favourites give him a bit of an opening, then I wouldn't rule him out.

RichN95.

I don't think he's being delusional at all. He's stunningly consistent in this race, seeing how much can go wrong. Of the last eight times he's riden it, he's come in the top ten seven times - the other time was when his handlbars broke when he was in the mix again.

He's not as good as Boonen or Cancellara, but if they have a bad day he's sure to be in a position to take advantage.

andyp

RichN95 wrote:

I don't think he's being delusional at all. He's stunningly consistent in this race, seeing how much can go wrong. Of the last eight times he's riden it, he's come in the top ten seven times - the other time was when his handlbars broke when he was in the mix again.

He's not as good as Boonen or Cancellara, but if they have a bad day he's sure to be in a position to take advantage.

I agree he's consistent but, and this is where I disagree with his own assessment that he's the best guy in the race, he's never translated that consistency into a win. Boonen and Cancellara have.

Hincapie is an able rider but he reminds me of Max Sciandri, always there or thereabouts but never quite able to deliver that elusive big win.

cougie

I think its perfectly fine for him to have this self belief - if you dont think you can win - you probably never will. He is usually up there in the mix anyway.

timoid.

No harm in bigging yourself up and he is a pretty decent rider over the cobbles, but I don't think he honestly belives what he is saying. I think his best chance may have already be gone.

I'm hoping someone like Thor will have a proper go next year.

derby

andyp wrote:

Hincapie is an able rider but he reminds me of Max Sciandri, always there or thereabouts but never quite able to deliver that elusive big win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Gent-Wevelgem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Days_of_De_Panne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GP_Ouest-France

Ok, so he hasn't won a monument, but these ain't kermesses.

and Sciandri did all right for himself also with four etapes in grand tours plus some significant single day victories:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximilian_Sciandri

andyp

derby wrote:

andyp wrote:

Hincapie is an able rider but he reminds me of Max Sciandri, always there or thereabouts but never quite able to deliver that elusive big win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Gent-Wevelgem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Days_of_De_Panne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GP_Ouest-France

Ok, so he hasn't won a monument, but these ain't kermesses.

and Sciandri did all right for himself also with four etapes in grand tours plus some significant single day victories:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximilian_Sciandri

It's one thing winning a race like K-B-K or Gent-Wevelgem, something else again in winning a monument. Neither Sciandri or Hincapie (so far) have achieved this and both have had ample opportunity to do so but failed repeatedly when it mattered.

derby

la-de-da how does one delete a double post?

derby

andyp wrote:

Hincapie is an able rider but he reminds me of Max Sciandri, always there or thereabouts but never quite able to deliver that elusive big win.

Well, in my mind, as soon as Sciandri won Pino Cerami he had a big win. When Hincapie won Gent, he had a classic. These are big wins to me and to all the cycling world. Just look at the list of champions who have won both races. If you want to shift ground now and say that they haven't been able to deliver a monument, well that's a horse of a different color.

andyp

derby wrote:

Well, in my mind, as soon as Sciandri won Pino Cerami he had a big win. When Hincapie won Gent, he had a classic. These are big wins to me and to all the cycling world. Just look at the list of champions who have won both races. If you want to shift ground now and say that they haven't been able to deliver a monument, well that's a horse of a different color.

I'd disagree. Back in the day when Gent-Wevelgem was a 250 km race then it was close to being a monument. Nowadays it isn't.

To be considered a top class one day rider and be ranked as a 5 star favourite for a monument then you must have at least two on your palmares, like Boonen and Cancellara. Hincapie (and Sciandri before him) have never won one, nevermind taken that next step to become a multiple monument winner.

He (Hincapie) will rank as a favourite next year for Roubaix, but he's behind Boonen and Cancellara because they've get their nerve and finished off the opportunity when it was presented to them.

derby

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classic_cycle_races

I think we may be having a difference over definitions. I think of the above list when I think of classics and monuments. The only race I would add to the listing here is Het Volk. It is a spring classic. Maybe I'm reading you wrong, but you seem to be calling all the ten major classics that made up the former world cup series, "monuments" . I think there are only five monuments, same as listed here on wiki, then another five major classics, with three minor classics, the minor classics being Het Volk, Gent Wevelgem, and Fleche Wallonne.

Based on this listing, and it has been the accepted standard for as long as I can remember, Hincapie has a classic win. Your mileage may vary. 8)

richard wants a baum

I think Georges comment has been taken a little out of context. I think he was saying HE still thinks his the best in that race, i dont think he meant that the wider public should take that as 'no can beat me im the best' just him saying he still has belief in himself and just needed the chips to fall his way. Having said that PR is one of those races where you need to have something go your was like OGrady he crashed twice but at the right moments, and when he attacked everyone was stuffed and resting before the big finish.

Monty Dog

Interesting that some parts of the media, particularly the English speaking elements classify F-W and G-W as 'monuments' whereas general acceptance is that there are only 5 true monuments - M-S-R, Flanders, Roubaix, L-B-L and Lombardy. Because of the timing of G-W, the big guns keep their powder dry, being sandwiched between Flanders and Roubaix and leave the pickings to the others - it's reckoned that a win in G-W just severely compromises your chances of victory at the 'main event' on Sunday. Applying probability theory to certain riders, recent history would suggest that if they are in the top-10 then they are almost certain not to win!

blazing_saddles

A monument......



Gent Wevelgem.....



A race that has become the midweek sprinter's carrot, in recent years. Gives a few of them the incentive to stick around for the big ones, on either weekend.

In fairness to George, he is one of a handful who is able to be competitive in Roubaix, as well.
Questionable whether he has the team to succeed.

FJS

Monty Dog wrote:

Interesting that some parts of the media, particularly the English speaking elements classify F-W and G-W as 'monuments' whereas general acceptance is that there are only 5 true monuments - M-S-R, Flanders, Roubaix, L-B-L and Lombardy.

Whose general acceptance? The whole concept of 'monuments' is a recent invention. I don't like it, sounds like disneyfication to me; 'classic', 'klassieker', 'classique', is fine.
Gent-Wevelgem and Fleche Wallonne certainly used to be classics, much more on a par with Paris-Roubaix, Ronde van Vlaanderen, etc, before the introduction of the World Cup series that singled out the weekend events. And, if you ask in Flanders, Brabantse Pijl, E3-Prijs, Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne are classic too; and in Italy Milano-Torino, Giro de Emilia, Giro de Piemonte, etc are classics.