Analyzing Sastre's chances in the TT

donrhummy

What's everyone's analysis of his chances? Here's some of mine:

While this is much longer than the first TT (advantage Evans), there actually are very few long straight-aways. In fact there are a ton of turns and direction changes (advantage Sastre).

Original image location:http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2008/2000/CARTE.gif


That means it's going to be harder to stay in a constant rythym/cadence and build up a steady pace -- which how TT specialists usually gain a major time advantage.

So while Sastre lost 76 seconds in the first TT, I don't think you can simply extend that out to the length of this one. He's got a better chance than it first appears.

deltadawn

I hate when it's already decided going into the final ITT. So I'm glad you think he's got a chance. At least that would make things more interesting.

What I'd really like to see is one of the contenders go for a break today (Friday). Of course that's not going to be allowed to happen.

Dawn

whyamihere

The thing to remember is, the gap doesn't have to be extended that far from the previous ITT. Evans is 94 seconds back, so he only needs to make an extra 18 seconds from the first one. Although the course would seem to favour Sastre more than usual, I don't think it will be enough to stop Evans from taking it. In my opinion, it's all over bar the shouting, assuming that Evans doesn't suffer a disaster in the final couple of days.

dirk_van_gently

Let's not dismiss Menchov, I think tomorows TT could leave us with a very close final day into Paris. Now wouldn't that be the icing on the cake ?

graeme_s-2

Dirk Van Gently wrote:

Let's not dismiss Menchov, I think tomorows TT could leave us with a very close final day into Paris. Now wouldn't that be the icing on the cake ?

It won't be possible for any of the GC contenders to get away on the road to Paris though will it? The sprinters' teams, and the yellow jersey's team will want to keep it all together, and I'm assuming it's a relatively flat stage.

whyamihere

Dirk Van Gently wrote:

Let's not dismiss Menchov, I think tomorows TT could leave us with a very close final day into Paris. Now wouldn't that be the icing on the cake ?

Menchov will be very close to Evans, no doubt. However, he's a minute back. If he hadn't gone down on that hairpin, things could be very different, but I don't think he can do it.

dirk_van_gently

Graeme_S wrote:

It won't be possible for any of the GC contenders to get away on the road to Paris though will it? The sprinters' teams, and the yellow jersey's team will want to keep it all together, and I'm assuming it's a relatively flat stage.

Probably, but it will be good to see them try. Let's say Menchov, Evans, and Sastre are spread across 5-6 seconds, there could be all sorts of fireworks

graeme_s-2

Dirk Van Gently wrote:

Probably, but it will be good to see them try. Let's say Menchov, Evans, and Sastre are spread across 5-6 seconds, there could be all sorts of fireworks

You're right, it would be exciting. Realistically though, when was the last time the yellow jersey changed hands on the final stage?

winoneday

1989

graeme_s-2

winoneday wrote:

1989

True, but that was a time trial rather than a normal stage.

I agree it'll be exciting if it's close on the final day, but I really don't think it'll come to anything.

Evil_Cod

I'm stuck at a stupid wedding.

Tour > Distant Relation,

dirk_van_gently

The most amazing Tour finish.

winoneday

The fact is there haven't been any riders close enough on the final day in order to cause problems for whoever has been leading. If there are only a couple of seconds in it (I'd say 5 at most) then we won't know what could happen because as you have pointed out, its never happened before.

pedalpower

I'm not sure sastre's as bad as we think in the ITT. These final ITTs tend to favour a special sort of rider - the physically big GC riders who can have the endurance over the whole Tour, Armstrong, Ulrich, Kloeden in recent years have been head and shoulders above most at this. But now we know that this (at least for some) probably had to do with artificial help. Assuming this year's contenders aren't able to use a similar pick-me-up, it makes it interesting but Evans's endurance does seem impressive. I still don't understand how such a tiny little guy can produce so much power on the ITT but be weaker than Sastre and others on the climbs (he must weigh less than the Schlecks).

I don't agree the bends will help Sastre. Evans will be the better bike handler and will lose less speed in the corners. He's also light enough to accelerate again without the effort needed by Menchov or someone.

donrhummy

winoneday wrote:

The fact is there haven't been any riders close enough on the final day in order to cause problems for whoever has been leading. If there are only a couple of seconds in it (I'd say 5 at most) then we won't know what could happen because as you have pointed out, its never happened before.

That's not what it is. They never try to win on the final day because it's tradition not to. Last year Evans said that even if he was just 1 second back after the final TT, he wouldn't attack on the final day going in to Paris. I think it's because of two reasons:

1. It's seen as a chance for the winner and his team to have an almost "parade", celebrating the win along the way (most drink champagne along the way)

2. It gets very dangerous if you have lots of attacks heading into paris and no one wants to get hurt on the last day

Either way, no one ever attacks on the last day and it's actually frowned upon. Too bad.

winoneday

What you say may way be very different to what you do when actually given the opportunity. Given a single second deficit I doubt any rider would sit back and accept second place as much as it may be frowned upon.

Monty Dog

"Evans better bike handler" - and this was the guy that broke his collar bone countless times due to his incompentent handling - I remember watching him in one of his early road races - went around the corner like a 50p piece and crashed!

whyamihere

Monty Dog wrote:

"Evans better bike handler" - and this was the guy that broke his collar bone countless times due to his incompentent handling - I remember watching him in one of his early road races - went around the corner like a 50p piece and crashed!

He's been World mountain bike XC champion, he's got to be pretty decent.

donrhummy

whyamihere wrote:

Monty Dog wrote:

"Evans better bike handler" - and this was the guy that broke his collar bone countless times due to his incompentent handling - I remember watching him in one of his early road races - went around the corner like a 50p piece and crashed!

He's been World mountain bike XC champion, he's got to be pretty decent.

Michael Rasmussen won the mountain bike world championships in 99 and not only would no one call him a great bike handler but he was known to be a so-so descender.

humble

since they ride TT bikes - you have to judge them on how they handle those specialty bikes - in that case - history indicates - Sastre will disappoint - esp. if the weather is bad - on the other hand - I'm not sure Sastre's shown all his cards on ITT's this year - and if he practiced this route like they say he did Alpe d'Huez - he may surprise.

It would have been in his interest to have a wheel sucker like Cadel underestimate him - and this would be the perfect race to pull off such a surprise.

Sastre will be last to go and that's an advantage - I see possibilities of him protecting - his form was impressive as he solo'd up the Alpe.

Evans - was able to follow wheels this whole tour - which didn't stop him from whining - until - Alpe d'Huez - where he was forced to ride for himself by CSC and everyone who happily followed his wheel for a change.

Have to tip your hat to CSC for isolating him. And to all the other rider who refused to help him for the last 3km or so. He had to put a big effort - and that will effect the whining wheel suckers strength and endurance tomorrow.

If the course really does have a lot of twist and turns between straights as some reports indicate this works against Evans. Every time he has to give up his tuck or brake - it takes him out of his rhythm - his strength is applying power at constant tempo - not explosiveness.

Any thing is possible - I'm thinking (hopeful) that Sastre may pull it off - we'll see - nice guys don't always finish first - but they can.

Bugly

@Humble you are out of line with the wheelsucker comment, Evans works as hard as any of the team leaders , harder in fact then most due to the lack of an effective team.

I didnt see Sastre do any thing but sit in the Pelaton until he attacted on the AdH. Wheelducker is an ugly word and really has no place when describing elite level riders. You may dislike Evans and his riding, that is your right, but calling him a wheelsucker in my eyes shows you have little respect or appreciation of racing in stage races.

Sastre is not a time trialler - as much as Evans is not a mountain specialist. There is no rational reason to think he will ride a minute better then Evans over the distance.

My disappointment is with the meek riding of the CSC team over the last 2 stages - they did nothing to try and take the sting out of Evans' legs for the time trial.

Squaggles

Before the Tour started I really didn't like Cadel . I was firmly in the "He's just a wheelsucker" category . Now I find myself really hoping he wins it . The guy has got guts , he wants to win very badly and he has made best use of his talents . I think he'll do it but its going to be close .

Jez mon

I'm not sure CSC really had any oppertunity to hurt evans, i.e. a heavy cross wind/hill with Evans in the wrong place in the pack.

Any effort that Evans made would have also have had to be made by Sastre, presuming they are both chemically speaking, on a level pegging, then Sastre needs an easy ride to the TT, in order to recover as he will have tired himself out up Alp d H, whereas Evans was able to ride more of a concerted effort and never pushed himself to the limit.

wakanui

off the top if my head (it's a pretty pointy head right now ;-) the TT is 51.3 km long, and the deficit Evans/Sastre is 93 seconds.... that's 1.82879377431 seconds per km. Any one of you ever riden a TT.... ?... ok, a 50 km time trial? 2 seconds per km is bugger all diffence in outputs... and it isn't rocket science to realise the Evans' pure output on the flat is something measurably greater that Sastres.As for the acceleration issue... Sastre's a climber and the dynamics are so different out of a flat bend . I really feel for Carlos, but the numbers say he's going to loose yellow by around 16-20 seconds. Everyone whinging about Cadels wheel sucking talents ignore the fact that after three weeks of wheel sucking and only two days where he really had to apply himself, he just might be fresher than everyone else. Frank Schleck isn't a known TT wallah, but he's looking quite fresh and he's got the long limbs to possibly carry off a good one. Everyone's poked and Menchov's shot but should still will podium..... unless we're all wrong and the whole thing blows apart on the last day. Dopings not the only tradition that's been discarded in this Tour. If there's a 30 second blanket over the front 3 or 4 riders, it'' l go ballistic because 2 of them are lkely to be CSC and one of them will be Rabo... and those two teams certainly still have the firepower. Champagne drinking my ass.... Le Tour is bigger than that.

dave_1

reminds me of Roche and Delgado 1987...Roche won by 40 seconds from a TT on stage 20 when Pedro had been 40 secs in front..history shows tomorrow will be similar

.....and that the expert Riis put all his eggs in 1 basket~ made bad decisions on Alpe Dhuez as well as ignoriing the chance of the Bonnete

Bugly

Jez mon wrote:

I'm not sure CSC really had any oppertunity to hurt evans, i.e. a heavy cross wind/hill with Evans in the wrong place in the pack.

.

Not 100% in agreement, Frank Schleck was still a threat to Evans. If he was put out with the likes of sparticus Evans would have to respond. I cant see the rest of the pelaton being interested as they are pretty much out of GC running. SO Evans doenst chase hard to conserve energy CSC have two potential winners with gaps on Evans. If he chased hard (with little team support looking at the team effort so far) he burns energy that he may need in the TT. Either way CSC would have gained something and stood to loose nothing.

Alex_Simmons/RST

wakanui wrote:

off the top if my head (it's a pretty pointy head right now ;-) the TT is 51.3 km long, and the deficit Evans/Sastre is 93 seconds.... that's 1.82879377431 seconds per km. Any one of you ever riden a TT.... ?... ok, a 50 km time trial? 2 seconds per km is bugger all diffence in outputs... and it isn't rocket science to realise the Evans' pure output on the flat is something measurably greater that Sastres.As for the acceleration issue... Sastre's a climber and the dynamics are so different out of a flat bend . I really feel for Carlos, but the numbers say he's going to loose yellow by around 16-20 seconds. Everyone whinging about Cadels wheel sucking talents ignore the fact that after three weeks of wheel sucking and only two days where he really had to apply himself, he just might be fresher than everyone else. Frank Schleck isn't a known TT wallah, but he's looking quite fresh and he's got the long limbs to possibly carry off a good one. Everyone's poked and Menchov's shot but should still will podium..... unless we're all wrong and the whole thing blows apart on the last day. Dopings not the only tradition that's been discarded in this Tour. If there's a 30 second blanket over the front 3 or 4 riders, it'' l go ballistic because 2 of them are lkely to be CSC and one of them will be Rabo... and those two teams certainly still have the firepower. Champagne drinking my ass.... Le Tour is bigger than that.

Course is not that technical and finishes lower than it starts. That is more advantageous to TT specialists and especially those that are more aerodynamic, as Evans is. I don't think their sustainable power is significantly different but Evans is considerably more aero than Sastre.

My SWAG is Evans wins TdF by 23 seconds.

donrhummy

It's wet on the roads, so that works in Sastre's favor.

ricadus

No the early morning rain is gone now and the roads look dry AFAICS.


Incidently, for UK viewers, was that an hour of waffle in the British Eurosport studio or what? Have they run out of budget for actual racing coverage, so they have to stall for as long as possible?

donrhummy

In america too. They don't start showing the TDF until 2 hours into every stage. Too bad, meant I missed the beginning of Cancellara's run.

neeb

Sastre:

"For me, the pressure is on Evans. He is the one who has to try and win the yellow jersey tomorrow."

Is it just me or is that completely the wrong psychological attitude? Surely if Sastre is going to win he needs to make a supreme effort. Given that Evans is so much better at TT the odds are in his favour, and the pressure is on Sastre to overturn those odds. Doesn't he need to be thinking that way to have a chance of winning?