Do the math: can Carlos go fast enough in the TT?

Eurostar

I'm crap at maths, but here are my sums, which will be full of mistakes. But you've got to start somewhere.

Assume Carlos' lead over Cadel is unchanged (1.34) at the start of the 53 km TT on Sat, and that their times in the final stage are the same. In other words, there will be no gains or losses for either of them tomorrow or on Friday or Sunday - it will all come down to the TT.

Carlos' time in the first TT over 29.5 km was 37.27, giving an avg. spd of 47.28 kph

Cadel's time was 36.11, giving an avg. spd of 49.17 kph

Asssume that Cadel's speed will be the same on Saturday. His time would be 1.04.41

Assume that Carlos repeats his own average speed of 47.28 kph: his time would be 1.07.12

But Carlos has 1.34 in hand. So in order to beat Cadel his target is 1.06.15.

In other words Carlos needs to take 57 secs off his time on a 53 km course.

What are the chances of that? Plenty of assumptions in there, but bear in mind that Carlos will be able to recover for the next two days, whereas Cadel will have to work like a dog as per usual.

LangerDan

The average speeds on Saturday should be lower given the longer distance, the lumpier profile and the fact that the riders will be (should be, anyway) boll!xed after 3 weeks racing. What that does to your calcs, I don't know. It's too late in the night for sums.

Eurostar

But their tyres will be worn so the circumferences will be reduced so they'll be quicker.

dave_1

Evans can take over 55km some 3 or 4 seconds per km off sastre as of 2007 and in 2006 and 2005 in the final TT Evans only took 1 min 10 off sastre over 50 or km. I think Evans will win the TDF by 20 or 30 seconds and will CSC race the final stage perhaps...

Results

1 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 1.02.44 (53.068 km/h)
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 0.51
3 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne 1.56
4 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.01
5 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.18
6 José Ivan Gutierrez Palacios (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.27
7 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.33
8 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.36
9 Leif Hoste (Bel) Predictor - Lotto 2.48
10 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 2.50
11 Thomas Dekker (Ned) Rabobank 2.55
12 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team CSC
13 Kim Kirchen (Lux) T-Mobile Team 3.00
14 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) T-Mobile Team 3.17
15 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Gerolsteiner
16 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 3.24

josd

eurostar your calculations are a bit useless because:
1. you cannot use average speeds on two completely different courses; the final TT is going to be much hillier than the stage 4 TT and riders react differently to each setting
2. the stage 4 TT was early in the tour, and riders have gauged themselves differently since then. for example, stefan schumacher will NOT win this TT
3. there are motivational changes (i.e. the yellow jersey gives you wings)
4. the riders do not use the same wheels the entire tour, so their tires wont be more worn down. even if they were, smaller tires dont equal faster times...

dave_1

josd wrote:

eurostar your calculations are a bit useless because:
1. you cannot use average speeds on two completely different courses; the final TT is going to be much hillier than the stage 4 TT and riders react differently to each setting
2. the stage 4 TT was early in the tour, and riders have gauged themselves differently since then. for example, stefan schumacher will NOT win this TT
3. there are motivational changes (i.e. the yellow jersey gives you wings)
4. the riders do not use the same wheels the entire tour, so their tires wont be more worn down. even if they were, smaller tires dont equal faster times...

I think Eurostar is correct..also see my postings...Evans has taken a minimu of 1 min 10 and as much as 2 min 40 of sastre...Evans is now much faster in TTs...Evans will win I think

bianchi77

I think Sastre must defend his yellow on TT, Evan is more powerful in TT
not easy but sastre has 1:24 advantage....go faster defending the yellow jersey..

richard wants a baum

I know its not the same course and all the other variables but look at last years final TT.
Evans was down 1:50 on Contador and only lost by 23sec. I would rate Contador more highly for sure than Sastre in a TT. I personally think that Evans has a very good chance of winning the TT as long as Sastre doesnt get much more time in the next two stages

Kléber

It's in Evan's favour but the hillier course, three weeks' racing change things and Sastre will be getting time checks on Evans. Above all, Sastre hasn't had to ride to defend a yellow jersey, to win the Tour.

So once again, this Tour keeps us guessing right up until the end.

method

josd wrote:

eurostar your calculations are a bit useless because:
1. you cannot use average speeds on two completely different courses; the final TT is going to be much hillier than the stage 4 TT and riders react differently to each setting
2. the stage 4 TT was early in the tour, and riders have gauged themselves differently since then. for example, stefan schumacher will NOT win this TT
3. there are motivational changes (i.e. the yellow jersey gives you wings)
4. the riders do not use the same wheels the entire tour, so their tires wont be more worn down. even if they were, smaller tires dont equal faster times...

I think he was aware of all that, it was just for interest.

Plus I assume he was joking about the tires....

dirk_van_gently

Evans is the stronger TTer, can he make back the time? anyones Guess, that is why it is so interesting. If we were back in the bad old days, where Indurain and Armstrong dominated, we would already know who the TDF winner was.
This is wayyyyyy better

BigG67

Bottom line is.....this is going to be SO close.

Will Sastre "fly" with the yellow jersey on his back.

Will CSC with Franck Schleck pummel Evans over the next few days (he'll need to cover any breaks he does as well as anything Sastre does) and weaken his legs.

Will Evans - motivated by the chance to win - ride the TT of his life, or will the pressure get to him.

All very exciting.

If I get off the fence.....Sastre by 0.10, with Evens the perpetual bridesmaid....

Kléber

Anyway, there is no maths to this, it's not precise. The only numbers are 94 seconds, two men, 55km and one yellow jersey.

Eurostar

I wonder if Armstrong could have beaten this CSC team without any support?

Like many others I've changed my mind about Evans. He's fighting the brain of Riis and the brawn of Sastre, two Schlecks, Voigt, Arvesen, Cancellara, O'Grady, Sorenson and Gustov. He should get the VC for what he's achieved already.

It will be fascinating if Frank gets up the road today or tomorrow so that Evans has to mark him as well as Sastre. What a nightmare for the guy. I have a horrible feeling that he will do a poor TT on Saturday because he will be too knackered.

Another thought: what if Riis has given Popo a brown envelope not to work for Cadel? Stranger things have happened...

takethehighroad

Kléber wrote:

94 seconds, two men, 55km and one yellow jersey.

LIVE!!! THIS SATURDAY!!!! ITV4!!!! BE THERE!!!

To throw my pennies in, unless Satre takes another 20 seconds before he sets off on Saturday he's lost the Tour by that much. He did beat Zubeldia, Vandevelde and Brushegin in last year's final time trial, however.

ricadus

Weather conditions look favourable at the moment anyway.

vermooten

I'll be watching through the gap in my fingers, in the same way that i watch Curb. I so want Carlos to win. Anyone but Evans, anyone! Even Ricco....

bianchi77

I think Sastre can defend the Yellow if there're many hills on the course..

skavanagh.bikeradar

I can't see Sastre doing it, but who knows how tired Evans is after a week or more of fighting CSC on his own.

andy_wrx

Do the math - pah !