Will CSC attack Evans on stage 18?
Comments
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The only way to do it, and it's fantasy stuff, is to send Voigt up the road in a break. As they hit the 2nd category climb, Frank Shleck does a flyer, crosses the top solo and finds Voigt waiting, they then ride like crazy to the finish to build up a lead. If, if, if...
Because today it took yesterday's stage, plus the Galibier, plus the Croix de Fer and then Alpe d'Huez before CSC could open up any time on Evans. There's almost on chance Sastre could get away.0 -
Kléber wrote:The only way to do it, and it's fantasy stuff, is to send Voigt up the road in a break. As they hit the 2nd category climb, Frank Shleck does a flyer, crosses the top solo and finds Voigt waiting, they then ride like crazy to the finish to build up a lead. If, if, if...
Because today it took yesterday's stage, plus the Galibier, plus the Croix de Fer and then Alpe d'Huez before CSC could open up any time on Evans. There's almost on chance Sastre could get away.
Uh...I think you have those names mixed up. Frank wouldn't be the one sent to gain more time, it'd be Sastre. If Sastre can gain another 30-40 seconds he can actually win. If Frank gains another 30-40 seconds, he'll still be less than a minute in front of Evans and have zero chance of winning.0 -
You'd give Evans another rough day in the saddle, though. Frank is more likely to gain any time than Sastre, especially as the final few km aren't uphill.0
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Don - I'm guessing the idea would be that Evans is not going to let Sastre go and Sastre would just be tiring himself out for no benefit - Frank has much less to lose and Evans will have to calculate whether to chase him or not - if he does then maybe he leaves himself open to a counterattack or else just tires himself out.
it's a hard life if you don't weaken.0 -
Exactly. Evans will be watching Sastre too much. The only way is to send Frank Schleck up the road, to make Evans chase. It took several of the hardest passes before Sastre could drop Evans, doing it again, but on a second category climb whilst he's in wearing the yellow jersey would be mission impossible.0
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Hmmm...that's not a bad idea. But, for it to work, you have to first get the pace high so you lose Evans' teammates, otherwise, they'll cover the attacks for him and you gain nothing.0
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Pretty sure my gran could set a pace high enough to lose Cadel's team-mates.0
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CSC will attack but not so much to put lots of time into Evans but more to sap him & take the edge off his TT & i think they'll do that tomorrow & Friday0
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I cant see Evans pulling that much time back on a TT on the second to last day of the tour..
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RichN95 wrote:afx237vi wrote:Pretty sure my gran could set a pace high enough to lose Cadel's team-mates.
Silence-Lotto are too busy defending the Lantern Rouge to help Evans.
I've been thinking that...why have S-L got a guy in a team that's supposed to bebased around Evans buggering off towards the end of stages to make sure he finishes last?
I suppose on sunday S-L will be able to say they came first and last....0 -
I think it's possible CSC will play the Frank card, as described above, so Evans isn't quite sure what to do.
I also think it could be Menchow who tries to get free while Evans and CSC are watching each other. The profile suits Menchow better than the Alps and with the TT still to come, he doesn't need to catch up all his deficit to put himself back in real contention.0 -
Kléber wrote:The only way to do it, and it's fantasy stuff, is to send Voigt up the road in a break. As they hit the 2nd category climb, Frank Shleck does a flyer, crosses the top solo and finds Voigt waiting, they then ride like crazy to the finish to build up a lead. If, if, if...
Because today it took yesterday's stage, plus the Galibier, plus the Croix de Fer and then Alpe d'Huez before CSC could open up any time on Evans. There's almost on chance Sastre could get away.
I agree, only fantasy stuff. Probably not much GC action until the final last climb.
But here is my fantasy scenario;
Andy Schleck seemed very fresh on the Alpe d'Huez, so perhaps he is strong enough to gap the GC field and low enough (12.th and +10 min.) on the GC ranking to be allowed to escape on the Parmenie or the Montveux. That way team CSC-SB could relax and let the other teams pull them over the top since they can't be expected to pull the peleton with a man up front, even though they have the jersey.
They could perhaps also deal some damage to Evans if Frank Schleck was fresh enough to mount some attacks.
The difference between this scenario with Andy up front while Frank attacking and just letting Frank attack is (I imagine ;-) ) that Evans would have to react to every attack at once, instead of just seeing if Menchov or Valverde would try to bridge the gap for him first like he did on the d'Huez.
The reason is that if Frank actually joined up with Andy it could be really, really hard for the GC field to reel them back in. Frank could potentially win so much time he could threaten Evans.
So even if Frank never escaped the GC group he could force Evans to burn so many matches so that Sastre could drop him hard on the final short climb (cat 4. about 7 km) and perhaps gain 10-20 seconds, which again just might be enough to let him win the race.
I don't think neither Frank nor Andy was worn out on the d'Huez so perhaps they could have the legs to do it. The flipside would be that team CSC-SB could loose any change that Frank might have of a podium (slim chance IMHO) and Andy's white jersey. OTOH I don't think Sastre can win over Evans with such a little lead, so...
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Regards
The armchair DS0 -
better defend sastre on the time trial0
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better defend sastre on the time trial0
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Who knows whether they are going to attack when they don't have a clue themselves! CSC might have a whole team of strong riders but they came into the tour with no strategy at all and must now be panicking that they are going to let it slip through their fingers.0
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I think the suggestion of helping Frank Schleck to get more time is a great tactic. CSC need to try to hurt Cadel as much as they can prior to the TT and he can't afford to let Schleck go. Even if it doesn't succeed, Cadel will have to work hard before having to put in the most important TT of his life. What else can they do to weaken him but making him chase?0
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As a break will go today and it will probably be a large one, CSC would be expected to put someone in the break, to police it. So far, the job has been done by Cancellara and Voigt.
Nothing to stop them trying to replace these guys with Andy Schleck.
He may be a little too close for comfort in the GC, certainly for Liquigas in YR comp, but it would mean them setting the pace and CSC getting time off.
Then wait and see how things are panning out and decide the tactic on the road.....
The terrain certainly looks like Frank Schleck's happy land. He could try a late attack to gain 30-40 seconds. It may not save him from Evans, but would help him secure third.
I think Valverde will want to salvage something today, too. Maybe even that Prince who won the Giro. :roll:"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
In the pre-Tour preview podcast, Matt Rendell's words are still ringing in my ears, something along the lines of "I'm fascinated by the myriad ways in which CSC are going to lose this Tour de France".Le Blaireau (1)0
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It's going to be an interesting stage. They'll be a lot of very tired legs after yesterday's 6 hrs + of racing, so a lot will depend on how much the potential podium finishers & their teams have left "in the tank".
Looking at the current state of play, any of the top 8 have a fighting chance of getting a top 3 finish.
Will Gerolsteiner be content with the Mountains' Classification or will they want to keep Kohl's place on the podium?
Will CSC try and put a Schleck up the road or just a schmuck?
Will Garmin try to get Vande Velde up there?
Ditto Rabbobank and Menchov?
It's the sort of stage that will suit Valverde down to the ground, so will CdE try anything?
Will Lotto put in an attack? But anything they do will have to include Evans, as Popo is 40 minutes off the pace. Is Evans knackered after all his efforts yesterday and is just waiting for the TT where he feels his current deficit is still small enough for him to take the necessary time out of Sastre, Schleck & Kohl?
CSC do have the strongest hand to play, as any move that includes Frank or Carlos must be chased down by Lotto, however, CSC will have to keep an eye on Kreuziger, who may still have designs on the White Jersey and they also haveto keep an eye on Ag2R, who might stick a couple of riders into a break and try and snaffle the team competition.
There's more to play for than just yellow here.Remember that you are an Englishman and thus have won first prize in the lottery of life.0 -
Everyone is thinking CSC.
CSC may not have it all their own way They have to defend the YJ.
Kohl is only 1.33 behind the YJ, and it's a bit lumpy in places today.
Of course you could see a gentleman's agreement, and it all just roll along so folk can recover from the last few days. But let's hope not :?0 -
I noticed on Alp-d'Huez that Valverde & the Sclecks were being pretty chummy, today Valverde may be allowed away as a reward for his help0
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DaveR1 wrote:CSC might have a whole team of strong riders but they came into the tour with no strategy at all
Not so sure - I'd like to know what the armchair DS thinks about this. One thing we learned yesterday is that Sastre is on stupendous form. But he hid it for the first 16 stages.Surely that was under orders from Riis? CSC is run along disciplined, military lines, so I think Sastre has always been the undisputed leader and he was told to sandbag until yesterday so that Evans thought Frank S. was the real threat.<hr>
<h6>What\'s the point of going out? We\'re just going to end up back here anyway</h6>0 -
Young Schlek in a breakaway definitely today, it'll make Evans "jumpy" for sure, all older brother will have to do is do an "Evans" on Evans and sit on his wheel. Sastre will do the same until the last climb and then turn up the gas. Evans will be boll*xed from all the chasing over the last couple of days and will fold (he looked cooked after yesterday's stage). Evans will be left to rely on his TT, we could end up with a "Lemond/ Fignon" tight finish with luck!Pictures are better than words because some words are big and hard to understand.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/34335188@N07/3336802663/0 -
I reckon (for what it's worth) that Schleck the elder will kick in hard at the bottom of either the Cat 2 or Cat 4 climb depending on his legs. I think that's why Andy S has been doing all the grunt work over the Alps.
Evans will then choose to either stay with Sastre and risk letting Schleck build up a decent lead for the TT or go after him.
If he does the latter CSC will sacrifice Schleck and have him push Evans to breaking point and destroy his TT.
My dream would be that Evans FOR ONCE goes on a break and attacks CSC making them decide between Sastre and Schleck, if he does that he deserves the race otherwise I'm a believer in fortune favouring the brave.0 -
Nice idea Big, worst case scenario for me is that Evans will win the tour by wheelsucking for the entire race. I have nothing against the guy, if he does win he'll be shown to be tactically shrewd, doesn't make for exciting racing though. The other teams are partly to blame, they need to work together and attack him today like they used to with Armstrong.Pictures are better than words because some words are big and hard to understand.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/34335188@N07/3336802663/0 -
If CSC want to win this Tour they HAVE to put a Schelck up the road and MAKE Evans chase. If they give him two days off before Saturday, they will be thrased.
Simple as that.0 -
I agree that CSC's best move is to send Frank up the road on the cat 2, but I don't see them doing it. They're gonna play it safe. Too bad.0
