start your stopwatch at the foot of L’Alpe d’Huez

dave_1

where the lead group turn left onto the first ramp and time Evans and CSC to the finish line. I predict nobody under 40 minutes due to the test for EPO

DaveyL

There's been a test for EPO since 2000.

dave_1

DaveyL wrote:

There's been a test for EPO since 2000.

micro dosing got round that it seems..anyway, enjoy...it is a cleaner TDF I think

DaveyL

You also have to take into account the preceding 200 odd km of the stage and how it's been ridden. Would be interesting to see Vande Velde's power output for the climb - no doubt that will apeear on the Slipstream website soon after (assuming he doesn't detonate!).

ricadus

Set it by the yellow jersey group, 'cause the breakaways won't be first to finish - they need a 5 or 6 minute advantage for that.

dave_1

DaveyL wrote:

You also have to take into account the preceding 200 odd km of the stage and how it's been ridden. Would be interesting to see Vande Velde's power output for the climb - no doubt that will apeear on the Slipstream website soon after (assuming he doesn't detonate!).

yes definitely will be interesting...the 04 TT was won in 38 minutes or high 37 minutes and we know what that took...4 different products for ullrich by the looks of it...so how could Lance still thrash him...I reckon 40 minutes is about the fastes an undoped can do it, but accept years and profiles pre climb impact on the outcome...

dave_1

ricadus wrote:

Set it by the yellow jersey group, 'cause the breakaways won't be first to finish - they need a 5 or 6 minute advantage for that.

ok will do

DaveyL

They're not going to break 40 min here, due to the amount of f*nnying around, if nothing else.

ricadus

It's chess on wheels. Or something.

DaveyL

OK - Sastre might do a good time.

dave_1

39 mins for Sastre...3 minutes off Pantani, 2 off Armstrong to within 10 secs I approx

dave_1

41 mins 18 seconds for Evans and group....Lemond and Fignon would have handled that pace if you put the two eras together...Pantani would have won the TDF

DaveyL

Dave_1 wrote:

41 mins 18 seconds for Evans and group....Lemond and Fignon would have handled that pace if you put the two eras together...Pantani would have won the TDF

.....If the TdF had just consisted of a TT up Alpe d'Huez.

cougie

CSC seem just so strong dont they ? I'm sure Andy Schleck will win the tour in the next few years if he can ride like he was this year ?

Michuel

DaveyL wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

39 mins for Sastre...3 minutes off Pantani, 2 off Armstrong to within 10 secs… I approx41 mins 18 seconds for Evans and group....Lemond and Fignon would have handled that pace if you put the two eras together...Pantani would have won the TDFtogether...Pantani would have won the TDF

.....If the TdF had just consisted of a TT up Alpe d'Huez.

Which is what one would expect. We're in the transition years waiting for the next super-champion to continue the tradition...-from Coppi, Bobet, Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Indurain and Armstrong.

How did Sastre et al stack up against Armstrong when they rode together?.

Eurostar

So Dave, given that Sastre:

(a) was inside 40 mins
(b) has had a quiet tour until today
(c) is Spanish

.....do you think he pulled a stupid Landis stunt today and will be busted when tonight's test results come back?

redddraggon

Eurostar wrote:

So Dave, given that Sastre:

(a) was inside 40 mins
(b) has had a quiet tour until today
(c) is Spanish

.....do you think he pulled a stupid Landis stunt today and will be busted when tonight's test results come back?

I think that (b) is important here, it's not like he's struggled through the tour, it just looks like he was biding his time, saving his energy.

Eurostar

I hope you're right - I like to think he's been craftily saving himself so that Evans wouldn't mark him. But Dave's got me worried now.

andyp

Coppi did Alpe d'Huez in 45 minutes in 1952 when it wasn't fully tarmaced. Clearly he must have been on an early prototype of EPO by Dave_1's logic.

dave_1

andyp wrote:

Coppi did Alpe d'Huez in 45 minutes in 1952 when it wasn't fully tarmaced. Clearly he must have been on an early prototype of EPO by Dave_1's logic.

well...you have a guess at who is doping and who isnºt based on times and performance. At least I will state an opinion...you gives us your impression of the TDF doping situation mr guru

iainf72

Dave_1 wrote:

well...you have a guess at who is doping and who isnºt based on times and performance. At least I will state an opinion...you gives us your impression of the TDF doping situation mr guru

There are so many variables though, aren't there? They'd done over 200km before they got to the Alpe and the previous 2 climbs are hard and were tackled at a fiercesome pace.

The fact VDV was in the yellow jersey group and managed a couple of little attacks makes me think they're riding at a cleanish level. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

DaveyL

40' 00" Jan Ullrich 2001
40' 46" Fränk Schleck 2006
40' 51" Alexander Vinokourov 2003
41' 18" Lance Armstrong 2003

OK, so these guys are all 40 min or over - clean or not clean?

jimmythecuckoo

ummmmm

blazing_saddles

DaveyL wrote:

40' 00" Jan Ullrich 2001
40' 46" Fränk Schleck 2006
40' 51" Alexander Vinokourov 2003
41' 18" Lance Armstrong 2003

OK, so these guys are all 40 min or over - clean or not clean?

Ullrich's time wasn't for the win. That was Lance's famous look over the shoulder and bye-bye Jan.
Why have you left out his time in 2001?
I'll add it for you:
38' 01" Lance Armstrong 2001

iainf72

Blazing Saddles - Are you really Paul Sherwen or Phil Liggett? You can't go 5 minutes without mentioning Lance :P

DaveyL

Blazing Saddles wrote:

DaveyL wrote:

40' 00" Jan Ullrich 2001
40' 46" Fränk Schleck 2006
40' 51" Alexander Vinokourov 2003
41' 18" Lance Armstrong 2003

OK, so these guys are all 40 min or over - clean or not clean?

Ullrich's time wasn't for the win. That was Lance's famous look over the shoulder and bye-bye Jan.
Why have you left out his time in 2001?
I'll add it for you:
38' 01" Lance Armstrong 2001

I left it out because it is irrelevant. I *thought* Dave's point was that >40 min = clean. I was just trying in a very crude way to show that was not the case.

There are a whole host of sub 40 min times out there. Why have you left out all the others? Shall I add them for you?

andyp

Dave_1 wrote:

well...you have a guess at who is doping and who isnºt based on times and performance. At least I will state an opinion...you gives us your impression of the TDF doping situation mr guru

I have no idea who is doping in the Tour. I think it's safe to assume that some riders are though. We can all speculate until we're blue in the face but it doesn't actually prove anything.

blazing_saddles

iainf72 wrote:

Blazing Saddles - Are you really Paul Sherwen or Phil Liggett? You can't go 5 minutes without mentioning Lance :P

Lance, there, I've done it again.
I see what DavyL is on about. fair enough.
In that case, it's been answered
Must depend on the circumstances, as others have said. Length and degree of difficulty of the day's parcours. Also, whether the Alps are first, as in 2001, or last, like this year.
There's no magical 40 minute clean/dirty cut off point.

DaveyL

Possibly an overlooked result yesterday - Moncoutie 14th on the stage, about 2:45 down on the yellow jersey group.

ricadus

DaveyL wrote:

Possibly an overlooked result yesterday - Moncoutie 14th on the stage, about 2:45 down on the yellow jersey group.

There's always some rider that does a great ride there but is overlooked and unremembered because they don't have a motorbike photographer or TV camera bike with them.

DaveyL

I thought it noteworthy as the guy is always held up as an absolutely clean rider. I saw him at the start of the Alpe, in fact I think he may even have put in an acceleration or two, but then didn't see him on the coverage after that. It was good to see he had a relatively (natural) high finish.