Probably going to get worse in France...

iainf72

According to CFA the word in the village is that some of the big names are in the suspicious list.

Place yer bets folks...

DaveyL

Hang on, you told us there weren't going to be any positives at the Tour. Frankly I don't know how we can believe a word you say anymore...

Cunobelin

I suppose that any form of evidence is out of the question?

Why do we always accept such rumours - it is not helpful, constructive or even worth the electrons used in posting it!

iainf72

DaveyL wrote:

Hang on, you told us there weren't going to be any positives at the Tour. Frankly I don't know how we can believe a word you say anymore...

I've already covered this when Andyp pwned me Davey :P

sportzchick

Well im a believer in innocent untill your proven guilty so I will reseve judgement

I am not niave to think we dont have an Aussie cheating (I know of one sadly) BUT have absolute faith in Cadel being clean

DaveyL

iainf72 wrote:

DaveyL wrote:

Hang on, you told us there weren't going to be any positives at the Tour. Frankly I don't know how we can believe a word you say anymore...

I've already covered this when Andyp pwned me Davey :P

Damn, too late :-)

In all seriousness though, if people do get caught, in my opinion it means it's going to get better. People are cheating - in cycling as well as many other sports. Some people seem to think it's good news when we don't catch criminals, but bad news when we do. I don't care how the mainstream media report it all, I've gotten used to that over the years. I'd much rather that cycling does the right thing, not matter how much bad publicity it might kick up.

I've just had a look at the CFA blog for the first time since the TdF started. Surprised no-one has mentioned Moreau's withdrawal here, the way CFA has.

DaveyL

sportzchick wrote:

Well im a believer in innocent untill your proven guilty so I will reseve judgement

I am not niave to think we dont have an Aussie cheating (I know of one sadly) BUT have absolute faith in Cadel being clean

During the ITV podcast, Matt Rendell has, on a couple of occasions, gone out of his way to state that he believes Cadel to be clean.

Kléber

CFA suggest Moreau was one but it's pure guesswork. He was riding like a dog anyway.

I've heard suggestions for other riders but won't name them. This forum will sink into a mess!

iainf72

DaveyL wrote:

I've just had a look at the CFA blog for the first time since the TdF started. Surprised no-one has mentioned Moreau's withdrawal here, the way CFA has.

Yes - It was a bit strange. I didn't know the rumour about AG2R. Moreau has always been a bit troubling for a French rider.

Has anyone managed to find the daily anti-doping control lists? Then we could "speculate" even more :shock:

DaveyL

It's not all pure speculation though, is it? The testers are clearly targetting. They have a list of riders with suspicious values, they're not going to ignore that and carry in randomly testing. It's a safe assumption to assume Ricco is on the list for whatever reason, given he was tested 4 times in 5 days. Looking at the doping controls should give you a good idea of who's under suspicion.

I'd be interested to see just how many tests there have been since the start of the Tour anyway.

sportzchick

DaveyL wrote:

sportzchick wrote:

Well im a believer in innocent untill your proven guilty so I will reseve judgement

I am not niave to think we dont have an Aussie cheating (I know of one sadly) BUT have absolute faith in Cadel being clean

During the ITV podcast, Matt Rendell has, on a couple of occasions, gone out of his way to state that he believes Cadel to be clean.

to be the 'cheats' are the ones that come out of nowhere and become great rather than the consistant riders - Cadel was a great moutain biker before coming to the road... the transition has always felt to be a natural. Kinda why I feel our top riders (Cadel, Robbie, Stuey) are clean, beause of consistancy

Also Ive heard a interview by Mike Turter (tour down under cheif) where he said after talking to stuey and cadel, they both believe they have a greater chance in the sport over the years to when they started as the cheats are getting caught and therefore the clean riders have a greater chance of winning events.

iainf72

sportzchick wrote:

to be the 'cheats' are the ones that come out of nowhere and become great rather than the consistant riders - Cadel was a great moutain biker before coming to the road... the transition has always felt to be a natural.

The view is a bit simplistic - Look at someone like Jan Ullrich? Or Basso. They didn't come out of nowhere.

DaveyL

Ullrich does seem to have gone there now though...

blazing_saddles

I wonder where the haematocritic TUE boys fit into the scheme of things. I'm thinking in particular of Damiano Cunego, who is allowed above the 50 mark.

After all, it was the HL's that were brought to the public attention.

With him, I hope and assume they are looking at his parameters, like they are reportedly doing. I wonder what arbitrary number puts him over the limit.
He is starting to look as if he could do with a "top up."

sportzchick

they were the expection not the norm - every rule of thumb has an expection

Cumulonimbus

sportzchick wrote:

DaveyL wrote:

sportzchick wrote:

Well im a believer in innocent untill your proven guilty so I will reseve judgement

I am not niave to think we dont have an Aussie cheating (I know of one sadly) BUT have absolute faith in Cadel being clean

During the ITV podcast, Matt Rendell has, on a couple of occasions, gone out of his way to state that he believes Cadel to be clean.

to be the 'cheats' are the ones that come out of nowhere and become great rather than the consistant riders - Cadel was a great moutain biker before coming to the road... the transition has always felt to be a natural. Kinda why I feel our top riders (Cadel, Robbie, Stuey) are clean, beause of consistancy

Also Ive heard a interview by Mike Turter (tour down under cheif) where he said after talking to stuey and cadel, they both believe they have a greater chance in the sport over the years to when they started as the cheats are getting caught and therefore the clean riders have a greater chance of winning events.

Wasnt Michael Rasmussen a top mountain biker too though? (although i think Cadel was better than him at a younger age). Cadel does seem to be the cleanest of the potential contenders in my very uninformed opinion though

method

sportzchick wrote:

they were the expection not the norm - every rule of thumb has an expection

Not really.

treize vents

In case you are needing a bit of "hard evidence", my blood results come on a sheet of paper and alongside the hemocrit result for me, there is a range of "normality". In France, the range is 38 - 52. In other words anyone with 52 is considered not worthy of all that much attention, just as someone with 38 is not worthy of all that much attention, all things being equal. Why 50 became a magic mark for cyclists, when in France, for a normal blood test, 52 is considered all right, I have no idea. Mine is usually 38-40, but then I have a medical condition that makes it lower than it might be.

Kléber

treizevents, the point is that 38-52 is ok for everyone in France but for healthy young males, the figure is a lot more like 38-45. What you're looking at is a broader figure for general use across a whole population.

Think of height, a range for adult males in Europe might go from 130cm to 240cm tall. But for a smaller sample of people, say 200 pro riders, maybe the range is going to be smaller, from 155cm to 195cm. Anyone outside this range stands out a lot.

This is what happens with the haematocrit count, if you're over 50 then you stand out a lot. So you get suspended from racing and tests are done. If you're naturally over, then chances are this will be detected very young and you'll be ok for all your career.

Biological factors tend to have a normal, Gaussian distribution, this means that your chances of having a haematocrit count above 48 are small, even smaller above 49 and freakish once you get above 52. But freakish exists in the range of French or British population, amongst a group of 60 million people, you'll find a few who are 240cm tall, but less so in a sample of 200 riders.

Apply Occam's razor and when you see a rider with a high haematocrit count, there's a high chance it's linked to EPO. All this may rely on assumptions but it fits a well established pattern from the past 15 years of pro cycling.

Jez mon

I think Rasmusen suddenly became a very good mountain biker, which struck some in the MTB world as suspicious.

Of course, the number of people with odd blood values is disheartening. But imagine if they'd run these tests in 1998. All the favorites plus most of their domestiques would probably have odd values. This sport is getting cleaner, or they've found a new drug to dope with.

vermooten

DaveyL wrote:

During the ITV podcast, Matt Rendell has, on a couple of occasions, gone out of his way to state that he believes Cadel to be clean.

I wonder how he knows. Maybe he has special powers?

treize vents

Hey Kleber,
You sound like someone who can answer my questions, the ones I have never bothered to ask my specialists.

For example, you say that the range for healthy young males should be 38-45. Why? for example if you said 42-49 I might guess you have eliminated the top end because of some reason. Why did you cut off the top and keep the same bottom for the "real range". I have asked several guys in my club, admittedly old geezers like me, and they are in the very low 40s or even in the high thirties. they cycle very well, me not so well.

Do you know of a straightforward place where I can find the curve for the general population or even for men aged 20-35. I would be keen to know. Is it true or false that trained up athletes might have a higher haemocrit? Obviously it changes when you live at altitude or in one of those tents.

By the way I have no doubt that a high haemocrit is linked to epo use. But I have never seen the curve.

RichN95.

Jez mon wrote:

I think Rasmusen suddenly became a very good mountain biker, which struck some in the MTB world as suspicious.

Of course, the number of people with odd blood values is disheartening. But imagine if they'd run these tests in 1998. All the favorites plus most of their domestiques would probably have odd values. This sport is getting cleaner, or they've found a new drug to dope with.

He was a pretty ordinary MTB rider, a few top tens, but just as likely to be thirty something. Evans by contrast was usually on the podium. Then all of a sudden Rasmussen rides everyone off his wheel at the World Champs.

Cadel talked about it last year

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22145973-5013449,00.html

NJK

RichN95 wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

I think Rasmusen suddenly became a very good mountain biker, which struck some in the MTB world as suspicious.

Of course, the number of people with odd blood values is disheartening. But imagine if they'd run these tests in 1998. All the favorites plus most of their domestiques would probably have odd values. This sport is getting cleaner, or they've found a new drug to dope with.

He was a pretty ordinary MTB rider, a few top tens, but just as likely to be thirty something. Evans by contrast was usually on the podium. Then all of a sudden Rasmussen rides everyone off his wheel at the World Champs.

Cadel talked about it last year

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22145973-5013449,00.html

I think i read somewhere that there are 20 PED's that are not being tested for. Unfortuanately the best riders can probably afford the newest drugs e.g synthetic blood. I read that this doesn't alter your hct levels. How true i don't know, you can only fail what you are being tested for.

micron

50% is a nice way of giving the illusion that you're keeping the sport clean whilst allowing a nice margin of error so that riders can continue to 'prepare' and give great performances. Raymond Poulidor always said the level should be at 45% otherwise it was just an excuse to carry on as usual

Jez mon

I always thought that 50% was more of a health check, a high hct is very dangerous, and if riders are dying of EPO induced heart attacks, it's bad news for the sport. If they aren't dying its not so bad, even if they are still doping.

However, the whole blood profiling is a good idea IMO. If a rider manages to keep a consistently high hct through a grand tour, its a sign that something is wrong, whereas if a rider has a one off high hct, then it could well be natural

knedlicky

DaveyL wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

Surprised no-one has mentioned Moreau's withdrawal here, the way CFA has.

I don't know what CFA is, but some of the German media cast doubt about why Moreau had suddenly gone.

He was interviewed before yesterday's stage and sounded quite positive, didn't mention any problems, but then withdrew so far along because of 'back ache'. The German media suggested that back ache is a typical psychosomatic symptom of stress, like when you know your team has received a letter that someone in the squad has highly suspicious blood or hormone values.

Jez mon

knedlicky wrote:

DaveyL wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

Surprised no-one has mentioned Moreau's withdrawal here, the way CFA has.

I don't know what CFA is, but some of the German media cast doubt about why Moreau had suddenly gone.

He was interviewed before yesterday's stage and sounded quite positive, didn't mention any problems, but then withdrew so far along because of 'back ache'. The German media suggested that back ache is a typical psychosomatic symptom of stress, like when you know your team has received a letter that someone in the squad has highly suspicious blood or hormone values.

He couldn't hold on to the high pace in the high wind...he's quite old and frustrated that he was never good enough to win yellow. He takes out his team radio and slowly rides towards retirement.

I think some poeple are really trying very hard to find doping. Seriously, Ricco's performance is far more suspicious than Moreau's.

Jajacp

If you look at the composition of the blood, the ratios of the types of cells, some one who has been using EPO or blood doping has a different profile to some one with a naturally high haematocrit.

clanton

treize vents wrote:

Hey Kleber,
You sound like someone who can answer my questions, the ones I have never bothered to ask my specialists.

For example, you say that the range for healthy young males should be 38-45. Why? for example if you said 42-49 I might guess you have eliminated the top end because of some reason. Why did you cut off the top and keep the same bottom for the "real range". I have asked several guys in my club, admittedly old geezers like me, and they are in the very low 40s or even in the high thirties. they cycle very well, me not so well.

Do you know of a straightforward place where I can find the curve for the general population or even for men aged 20-35. I would be keen to know. Is it true or false that trained up athletes might have a higher haemocrit? Obviously it changes when you live at altitude or in one of those tents.

By the way I have no doubt that a high haemocrit is linked to epo use. But I have never seen the curve.

As a general rule fitter people have LOWER haematocrits. In fact it would be expected for a cyclist at the end of the tour to have a lower haematocrit than earlier - assuming he's not dehydrated!

andyp

knedlicky wrote:

I don't know what CFA is, but some of the German media cast doubt about why Moreau had suddenly gone.

CFA is cyclingfansanonymous, a blog on doping in cycling.