TDF - Newbie's question about final stage

trailtrash

Sorry to ask what is probably a silly question, but is the final stage into Paris competitive for the GC? I understand the sprinters race for the line but a couple of things have made me wonder about the GC:

1) A magazine I bought said 'the stage tradtionally starts with the yellow jersey toasting his successwith champagne'. Now this might refer to years when the leader had a significant lead but . . .

2) Last night Contador was upset at having lost three seconds cos his group split from Evans' group and the commentator said something like 'let's hope that Evans doesn't win the time trial with a three second lead!' which suggested that it would be all over after the TT.

Surely if Evans wins the TT with a three second lead it would set up a stunning finale in Paris, would it not?

Bronzie

The final stage into Paris is traditionally a procession, with only the final sprint been fought over.

This is usually because the time differences on GC cannot be altered on a flat stage into Paris. The only time I can remember the final stage being decisive was 1989 when it was a time trial into Paris (Greg Lemond winning the overall by just 8 secs from Laurent Fignon).

I would suspect that this would be the case even if Evans is only a few secs behind Contador on GC tonight. Don't think there is a time bonus on the final stage (?), but even if there is, the only way I could see Evans winning the sprint would be if everyone else fell off.

lloyd_bower

Reading elsewhere there 32secs time bonus available tomorrow, that will include an intermediate sprint so not sure how it works out but either way that's not enough for Evans to take yellow as the sprinters (specialists at them) will be challenging for them and Contador would only need to follow a position or two behind Evans in the unlikely event of him winning both.
If it had been a handful of secs I guess it could have been an interesting finish.

ricadus

I believe in the not too distant past that the sprints competition has been finally settled on the initial intermediates.

I think that officially the clock stops once they reach the Champs-Elysees for the first time – i.e. the ten or so laps they do don't count for the overall. Is that right? I have a feeling it was Duffers who mentioned this, so it could be over-excited nonsense.

OffTheBackAdam

The last stage usually holds no great obstacles, there's a couple of 4th cat climbs, so nowhere for a real attack to be launched.
I remember many years back, the gap between Hinault and Zoetemelk being fairly small, Zoetemelk did launch an attack and the finish was contested between the two of them, must be the only time a break has stayed away to the end.
I can't see any great changes in GC, the sprinters' teams will want to keep things together, I doubt if either Disco or Predictor teams have enough energy left to launch a savage enough, sustained attack (Like Astana when Moreau lost 3.20) to change things.
There's always, gods forbid!, a chance of a crash putting out one of the top three.
The time bonuses are there, but I'd espect a small break to go early on, consisting of riders with more than a 30 minute deficit, they'll snatch the 12 seconds available for winning the 2 intermediate sprints, then the Blue Train will hit the front, tow Boonen along and everything will be back together when the peleton hits Paris.
A few attacks will be launched on the cicuits, I'll lay a bet on Jens Voigt doing a flier, then a bunch sprint with the usual suspects involved.