Sastre

skut

Will he get stronger as others fade?

Or is he really a second tier rider who was flattered by last year's 4th place?

andyp

You don't finish repeatedly on the podium in GTs without being a decent rider.

He was the strongest rider in the third week last year. If he repeats that this year then he has a good chance of being on the podium as the Pyreneen stages will suit him.

red_tom

2nd in Stages 16 and 17 in the Tour last year suggest he does get stronger towards the end. Don't forget 2nd* in the 2005 Vuelta as well.

The Valverde/Moreau/Evans group were fighting all the way up the mountain and gained only 20 ish seconds on Sastre. Contador redlined it up to Tignes into a headwind and gained a heroic 4 seconds on him. We've only had 1 proper day in the mountains and no HC climbs yet. I think he's racing smart and will show his form in the Pyrenees.

He might also be my PTP pick

* - eventually.

Noodley

I'm still sticking by him for my PTP GC choice. He looked very comfortable yesterday.

red_tom

The odds for Sastre to win at the moment are pretty surprising. (Betfair)

Rasmussen 6.8 to 1
Kloden 8.6 to 1
Moreau 14.5 to 1
Kashechkin 20 to 1
Mayo 21 to 1
Sastre 26 to 1! :shock:

afx237vi

Can't believe he's more of an outsider than Mayo. And Rasmussen certainly ain't favourite in my book.

SteveR_100Milers

Where's Valverde in those odds???? Rasmussen favourite?? (I'd better check if the sun has actually set this evening... :shock: )

RichN95.

SteveR_100Milers wrote:

Where's Valverde in those odds???? Rasmussen favourite?? (I'd better check if the sun has actually set this evening... :shock: )

They're not the full odds - from Unibet

Win
Valverde, A 4.25
Rasmussen, M 5.70
Evans, C 7.50
Klöden, A 8.00
Vinokourov, A 10.00
Contador Velasco, A 11.00
Moreau, C 11.00
Mayo, I 14.00
Sastre, C 16.00
Kashechkin, A 16.00
Menchov, D 18.00
Schleck, F 25.00
Leipheimer, L 30.00
Pereiro Sio, O 40.00
Zubeldia Aguirre, Haimar 45.00
Karpets, V 75.00
Gerdemann, L 100.00
Garate, J M 100.00
Astarloza Chaurreau, M 100.00
Gusev, V 150.00

SteveR_100Milers

what's Gusev for a podium?

RichN95.

SteveR_100Milers wrote:

what's Gusev for a podium?

30-1

red_tom

SteveR_100Milers wrote:

Where's Valverde in those odds???? Rasmussen favourite?? (I'd better check if the sun has actually set this evening... :shock: )

I just picked a few in particular to indicate how strange the odds are. Betfair have odds listed for a stupidly huge number of riders. You can get Dave Z (only 1hr 14mins off the pace) our Bradley or Tom Boonen at 1000-1 if you like...

SteveR_100Milers

I have Gusen as the dark horse. I still think Valverde is yet to show his real form.

el_presidente

red_tom wrote:

SteveR_100Milers wrote:

Where's Valverde in those odds???? Rasmussen favourite?? (I'd better check if the sun has actually set this evening... :shock: )

I just picked a few in particular to indicate how strange the odds are. Betfair have odds listed for a stupidly huge number of riders. You can get Dave Z (only 1hr 14mins off the pace) our Bradley or Tom Boonen at 1000-1 if you like...

That's just the way Betfair works - they list the whole field at the start of the race and they'll stay there until they drop out.

Because it is an exchange not a bookies they have to list the whole field to get a mathematically correct book.

The alternative is to list a selection and then group the rest under "Any other" but that is most unsatisfactory if you get a surprise performance from anyone who is not a named rider.

red_tom

el_presidente wrote:

That's just the way Betfair works - they list the whole field at the start of the race and they'll stay there until they drop out.

Because it is an exchange not a bookies they have to list the whole field to get a mathematically correct book.

The alternative is to list a selection and then group the rest under "Any other" but that is most unsatisfactory if you get a surprise performance from anyone who is not a named rider.

That's not the way it works. There's no mathematical reason why they have to list all of the options. They currently have 51 riders listed and no 'any other' option. Unless something really odd happened in the rest day then that's not the whole field. Just because you have a vegetable market it doesn't mean that someone has to be buying or selling carrots.

What does happen is that anyone can email them to ask for a rider to be added and this can cause the list to grow. I've had to email them in the past when betting on an individual stage to add in a lesser known rider when it looks like there might be a break.

el_presidente

red_tom wrote:

el_presidente wrote:

That's just the way Betfair works - they list the whole field at the start of the race and they'll stay there until they drop out.

Because it is an exchange not a bookies they have to list the whole field to get a mathematically correct book.

The alternative is to list a selection and then group the rest under "Any other" but that is most unsatisfactory if you get a surprise performance from anyone who is not a named rider.

That's not the way it works. There's no mathematical reason why they have to list all of the options. They currently have 51 riders listed and no 'any other' option. Unless something really odd happened in the rest day then that's not the whole field. Just because you have a vegetable market it doesn't mean that someone has to be buying or selling carrots.

What does happen is that anyone can email them to ask for a rider to be added and this can cause the list to grow. I've had to email them in the past when betting on an individual stage to add in a lesser known rider when it looks like there might be a break.

Apologies you are completely right of course. I shoudln't really try to be clever first thing in the morning :oops:

red_tom

And I should spend less time on betting sites :?

Niland

I got sastre at 20-1, seems worth putting a few quid on.

murcof

He's 38-1 on betfair now - that's outrageous! If I could be bothered to register, I'd put a tenner on him. As has been said, Sastre gets stronger in the third week (or comparatively less weaker thatn the others) so those odds are unbelievable, considering where he is in GC and that he obviously has good form.

red_tom

His odds are still higher than Vinos - it's madness. I'm thinking that it's worth waiting until after the first time trial as he'll lose some time there and they'll creep up even further.