The Return of Iban Mayo????

Mr Bumble

2007 is starting to remind me of the 2003 tdf:

Mayo has survived the first week in which he normally falls out of contention, also it was about this time in 2003 that he went on the offensive...He claims to have given up on the GC but the way he rode today suggests otherwise...

I wonder if Saunier-Duval will be passing a brown envelop to Euskatel to martial the support of his old mountain goat chums

I hope he gives the Basques something to cheer about in the Pyrenees...

davidmiller

Yes, good to see that rider back - the one who scared the cr** out of Armstrong on Mt Ventoux in 2004 (Dauphine). He looks much better in yellow.

Can he win it?? Do n't know, can he TT???

David

Steve Austin

not sure we seen the best of the big guns yet. Could blow apart on tuesday and next sunday yet

afx237vi

It was good to see him back, because he's a joy to watch when he's on form, but I don't think he can win it. Too flaky, and he'll lose stacks in the TTs.

Eurostar

I know the TTs are very long, but could this be a year for a pure climber? I hope Rasmussen doesn't ride into the ditch again. And again. And again.

Dorian Gray

I can't see a pure climber winning this Tour, due to the long time trials you mention, the second of which is almost flat in addition to its horrid length (55.5 km). Rasmussen (and Mayo for that matter) would need to take fully ten minutes out of Valverde, Klöden, Vino, etc. in the mountains to stand a chance of surviving the two time trials. In the Prologue in London Rasmussen was 1:16 behind Cancellara while Mayo lost a minute. That shows the kind of task they'll face in the TTs. Can't be done, I suspect.

Regarding Mayo, one gets the impression that a lot of his flakiness is down to how much he feels like suffering on a given day. He's like some of the great South American football teams: marvellous when on form, but nightmarish on a bad day. A great deal of Vino's success is down to incredible mental toughness. He seemed only slightly weakened by 30+ fresh stitches today. Can't speak for the rest of you, but I'd likely be gingerly shielding my knees from my jeans in that state, never mind climbing the Alps.

andyp

Dorian Gray wrote:

I can't see a pure climber winning this Tour, due to the long time trials you mention, the second of which is almost flat in addition to its horrid length (55.5 km). Rasmussen (and Mayo for that matter) would need to take fully ten minutes out of Valverde, Klöden, Vino, etc. in the mountains to stand a chance of surviving the two time trials. In the Prologue in London Rasmussen was 1:16 behind Cancellara while Mayo lost a minute. That shows the kind of task they'll face in the TTs. Can't be done, I suspect.

You have to take care comparing TT times at the start of the race with those towards the end of the race. The later a time trial is the less advantage the specialists have as they are, like everyone else, knackered. This is why you always get surprises in last day time trials.

I reckon this year's route favours climbers more than time triallists as the mountain stages are bunched together and you get 3 days in the Alps and 3 days in the Pyrenees. Rasmussen's advantage is significant now and he could add to it in the final week.

That said, I really wouldn't like to predict the final result as it looks like it's going to be a very close race right to the end.

Eurostar

I think the weather could be a big factor. If the tough days in the Pyrenees turn out to be very hot the pure climbers could pull out a massive lead. We haven't seen the best of Contador yet. The Basque crowds will go nuts for him in the Pyrenees (even though he's from Madrid) and with a bit of luck we'll see an epic battle between him and Rasmussen. They will push each other so hard that half the field will be overtaken by the broom wagon. The organisers will probably have to charter a coach!

calvjones

andyppro wrote:

Dorian Gray wrote:

I can't see a pure climber winning this Tour, due to the long time trials you mention, the second of which is almost flat in addition to its horrid length (55.5 km). Rasmussen (and Mayo for that matter) would need to take fully ten minutes out of Valverde, Klöden, Vino, etc. in the mountains to stand a chance of surviving the two time trials. In the Prologue in London Rasmussen was 1:16 behind Cancellara while Mayo lost a minute. That shows the kind of task they'll face in the TTs. Can't be done, I suspect.

You have to take care comparing TT times at the start of the race with those towards the end of the race. The later a time trial is the less advantage the specialists have as they are, like everyone else, knackered. This is why you always get surprises in last day time trials.

I reckon this year's route favours climbers more than time triallists as the mountain stages are bunched together and you get 3 days in the Alps and 3 days in the Pyrenees. Rasmussen's advantage is significant now and he could add to it in the final week.

That said, I really wouldn't like to predict the final result as it looks like it's going to be a very close race right to the end.

You can't compare taking 5mins in a breakaway with riding away from top GC contenders when they don't want you to go. He could win another stage and teke a handful more seconds but Cadel, Valverde, Contador are all much better TTers and close in the mountains. I suspect Kloeden could wipe the floor with the lot of them if it wasn't for his position/attitude.

dave_1

Nice to see Mayo back
He showed in June 2006 at the Dauphine that he still had class, dropping Valverde for a mountain stage 1. 04 was good but for the TDF, won the Dauphine. 05 is blank. 07 shows Mayo in form in June. I am pleased he's back. Only the best could do what he did to Lance in 03

timoid.

Don't think he'll win the thing (top ten at best), but he must have one eye on Rassmussen's dots.

We could have a really interesting duel for the KOM title on our hands.

TheBigOne

I think this years race will come down to 2 people...

Contador.
Kloden.

I reckon Kloden will sneak it due to his TT'ing.

there are no other worthy contendors, the '2007 Wheel Suckers Union' (Evans, Valv, Leip) had their chance to put down some serious time into Klodi / Vino yesterday and blew it.. only Mayo & Moreau had the balls to do anything, and Contador rode until the end like a man possesed.

Disco, change yr plans, Leip is past it, pin yr medals on Contador and support him.

Evans... do you ever take a turn at the front?

jonnywilkinson

i agree with a lot of what thebigone says, in particular the stuff about evans et al.

i think that Sastre might still show himself and would certainly put him above Mayo who i think we will see fade.

and i still wouldn't rule out Vino.

jimmythecuckoo

Great to see Mayo back in the fray.

It was a truly amazing stage finale.