Will Cancellara be the new Indurain?

El Conejo Ingles
El Conejo Ingles Posts: 155
edited July 2007 in Pro race
Putting ridaculous amounts of time to people in the TT's and being unshakable in the mountains.

Premature and a little daft I know but he is looking strong, it would certainly make it interesting.

A patron like show yesterday too, chapeau.
Self confessed King of The Mole Hill
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Comments

  • pat1cp
    pat1cp Posts: 766
    No chance. He can't climb at all, let alone limit his losses. Carlos Sastre will be CSC's GC contender. Yellow will change hands by the weekend, mark my words.
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  • Moose11
    Moose11 Posts: 235
    Yeah, they say he wont be able to climb at all but the yellow jersey does strange things to people, maybe he's never had a reason to gut it out in the mountains. If he can survive reasonibly in the Alps which aren't to long this year he has a big timetrial before more mountains. Who knows, but it's unlikely.
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  • El Conejo Ingles
    El Conejo Ingles Posts: 155
    I'm just thinking his TT ability will give him a little more scope than most for how much he can loose going up hill.

    I'd like to see him keep it until the Pyrenees
    Self confessed King of The Mole Hill
  • calvjones
    calvjones Posts: 3,850
    El Conejo Ingles wrote:
    I'm just thinking his TT ability will give him a little more scope than most for how much he can loose going up hill.

    I'd like to see him keep it until the Pyrenees

    Unless he can take 20mins out of everyone over 2 TTs he's shagged.
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  • hevipedal
    hevipedal Posts: 2,475
    calvjones wrote:
    El Conejo Ingles wrote:
    I'm just thinking his TT ability will give him a little more scope than most for how much he can loose going up hill.

    I'd like to see him keep it until the Pyrenees

    Unless he can take 20mins out of everyone over 2 TTs he's shagged.

    Well as he's already got 13 mins in the prologue over 8k...................
    and after the storming finish yesterday............. CSC would be fools to ignore him.
    I like Sastre but he's got no chance because he'll lose more time in 2 time trials than Cancellara will in the mountains.

    He says crossing his fingers
    Hevipedal
    It's not only people that are irrational; 1.4142135623730950488016887242096980785696718753769480731766797379907324784621
  • PeteinSQ
    PeteinSQ Posts: 2,292
    He got 13 seconds in the prologue, not 13 minutes!

    I have no idea what he is like at climbing, is he really useless?
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  • Noodley
    Noodley Posts: 1,725
    hevipedal wrote:
    [quote="calvjones"
    Well as he's already got 13 mins in the prologue over 8k...................

    er, 13 seconds, not 13 minutes!!! :roll: :shock:
  • GroupOfOne
    GroupOfOne Posts: 21
    Everyone forgetting about Frank Schleck too, who is a much better GC bet than Cancellara. Think he'll probably lose the jersey on Thursdays stage to Autun, which looks perfect for a break - suppose it depends on whether CSC decide to chase any break, particularly as FC does have quite a large advantage for this point in the Tour.

    Then again Stage 5 will probably see someone like Jens get into the break, thus negating the need for CSC to work.

    Hmm but yeah, can't see Cancelllara keeping yellow beyond Saturday at the very latest.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,553
    hevipedal wrote:
    Well as he's already got 13 mins in the prologue over 8k...................
    and after the storming finish yesterday............. CSC would be fools to ignore him.
    I like Sastre but he's got no chance because he'll lose more time in 2 time trials than Cancellara will in the mountains.

    He says crossing his fingers
    Want to put money on that?

    Sastre is a GT podium finisher, Cancellara is a cobbled classics specialist and decent time triallist. I'd bet that Cancellara will lose more time in one mountain stage than Sastre will in all three time trials.

    Do you guys understand pro racing? I ask because quite often someone does well in one race and you suddenly predict big things for them. Cancellara's role in this Tour is to assist Sastre and Schleck in attaining high GC places. As soon as he loses the yellow jersey, and that'll come on Saturday, he'll be a domestique.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    Last year CSC didn't even pick Cancellara in their Tour team because he can't climb at all.

    In fact I reckon the mountains will take so much out of him that he won't get close to winning the first TT and I doubt he will win the second either.
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  • jimmythecuckoo
    jimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,718
    He is keeping the jersey warm for Frankie Schleck!
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  • aarw
    aarw Posts: 448
    I've been a bit surprised that CSC have been defending his Yellow Jersey, should they not be saving more for the mountains to assist Shleck & Sastre?

    On the other hand i think Sastre is a wheel follower and the having the squad at his disposal isn't really his style. If he has Shleck for company that would maybe be enough.

    Can't wait to see what Astana are going to do when the roads go up. if it's anything like last years Vuelta it'll be good telly!
  • calvjones
    calvjones Posts: 3,850
    aarw wrote:
    I've been a bit surprised that CSC have been defending his Yellow Jersey, should they not be saving more for the mountains to assist Shleck & Sastre?

    On the other hand i think Sastre is a wheel follower and the having the squad at his disposal isn't really his style. If he has Shleck for company that would maybe be enough.

    Can't wait to see what Astana are going to do when the roads go up. if it's anything like last years Vuelta it'll be good telly!

    I think it says quite a lot about what CSC think of the chances of Sastre & Shleck on the overall. Sastre has finished 4th with effectively no help before, and wouldn't do any better even if he had the '99-'04 vintage Postal boys behind him. Yellow for most of the 1st week and a top 5 on GC will be a good result for a cleanish (?) CSC this year (espeically as the Astana 'heads will take 2 of the top 5 places).
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  • andy_wrx
    andy_wrx Posts: 3,396
    Stuey O'Grady interviewed at the start of yesterday said that CSC had been working hard at the front of the peloton for a couple of days, protecting yellow, but that yesterday they wouldn't bother, it was the sprinters' teams' turn to do the work.

    Good theory : make Quick-Step, Pred-Lotto, CA, Milram & co chase-down the break

    Then Canch goes and wins it :D
  • SteveR_100Milers
    SteveR_100Milers Posts: 5,987
    I'm afraid the cynic in me just cannot accept he is eating the same things for brekky as the others....the guy looks like a body builder. If he climbs well in the big mountains, then I for one will be unconvinced of the worth of the riders charter that he allegedly signed with all the other riders. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.....
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  • red_tom
    red_tom Posts: 1,266
    SteveR_100Milers wrote:
    ....the guy looks like a body builder...

    Only in this photo.... :)
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  • kmahony
    kmahony Posts: 380
    He won't climb well, but will sit in the peleton at the back and should get over them ok.
    I still expect him to win both TTs (unless the GC is close at the end, in which case Vino, Valv and Klod etc will be all out).

    I don't think he's a domestic. I reckon CSC put him in the squad as they knew how big London would be and that he would win. Yesterday was a bonus.

    He won't ever win the tour, but is an exceptional rider. He should make the Paris Roubaix and the WC TT his own for the next few years.
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  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,553
    SteveR_100Milers wrote:
    I'm afraid the cynic in me just cannot accept he is eating the same things for brekky as the others....the guy looks like a body builder. If he climbs well in the big mountains, then I for one will be unconvinced of the worth of the riders charter that he allegedly signed with all the other riders. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.....
    A sad indictment of the state of professional cycling?

    If you read Procycling this month then Rasmus Damsgaard, the guy who runs the CSC anti-doping program, says that it is close to impossible to cheat with his monitoring program in place. Which would suggest that Cancellara is doing it clean.
  • Mr Bumble
    Mr Bumble Posts: 572
    I reckon Cancellara will be like Indurain but without the ability to mix mustard with the climbers...

    On form he is untouchable and would have big tex in tears if he was still racing!!
    :D
    - I reckon he is hot for another TT win he survived the Alps in the Tour de Suisse before claaiming the final TT.

    His sprint yesterday was phenomenal!!!
  • calvjones
    calvjones Posts: 3,850
    Mr Bumble wrote:
    I reckon Cancellara will be like Indurain but without the ability to mix mustard with the climbers...

    On form he is untouchable and would have big tex in tears if he was still racing!!
    :D
    - I reckon he is hot for another TT win he survived the Alps in the Tour de Suisse before claaiming the final TT.

    His sprint yesterday was phenomenal!!!

    I don't think any of the Testers around at the mo would trouble LA or Jan at their best [insert preferred qualifier here]
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  • skut
    skut Posts: 371
    andyppro wrote:
    SteveR_100Milers wrote:
    I'm afraid the cynic in me just cannot accept he is eating the same things for brekky as the others....the guy looks like a body builder. If he climbs well in the big mountains, then I for one will be unconvinced of the worth of the riders charter that he allegedly signed with all the other riders. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.....
    A sad indictment of the state of professional cycling?

    If you read Procycling this month then Rasmus Damsgaard, the guy who runs the CSC anti-doping program, says that it is close to impossible to cheat with his monitoring program in place. Which would suggest that Cancellara is doing it clean.

    I'm afraid I'm a bit cynical too. What I don't understand is how there could have been a massive 23 second gap between 1st and 3rd, whereas the next 23 seconds covers about 40 riders.

    Checking back over the last few years to see how many riders came in within 23 seconds of the winner gives the following

    2006 - 40 riders
    2005 - no prologue
    2004 - 36 riders
    2003 - 60 riders
    2002 - 38 riders
    2001 - 31 riders
  • hevipedal
    hevipedal Posts: 2,475
    PeteinSQ wrote:
    He got 13 seconds in the prologue, not 13 minutes!

    I have no idea what he is like at climbing, is he really useless?

    doh
    Hevipedal
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  • moray_gub
    moray_gub Posts: 3,328
    Usually he climbs like an aero dynamic brick he will loose the jersey probably 1st day in the mountains.As has been said he is in the team as a domestique for CS and FS and to bag a few stage wins if he can in the TTs but his primary role is a helper on long flat stages

    cheers
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  • oldwelshman
    oldwelshman Posts: 4,733
    Mr Bumble wrote:
    I reckon Cancellara will be like Indurain but without the ability to mix mustard with the climbers...

    On form he is untouchable and would have big tex in tears if he was still racing!!
    :D
    - I reckon he is hot for another TT win he survived the Alps in the Tour de Suisse before claaiming the final TT.

    His sprint yesterday was phenomenal!!!
    What sprint? He did not sprint he just rode off the front of the bunch using his power. He went from a long way out and by the time the sprinters caught him they were blown :D
    he just went very fast very steady :D
    I guarentee the day before the TT he will be in the last bunch shelterring saving himself for the TT and he would be stupid not to.
    He will only put in enough effort in the climbs to finish within the time limit, same as the sprinters do.
    He is not a domestique really becuase he is no use in the climbs as he would slow his team up !!
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  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    oldwelshman wrote:

    He is not a domestique really becuase he is no use in the climbs as he would slow his team up !!

    There is more than one type of domestique. He is a rouleur par excellence and will have an important role to play helping Sastre to his ineveitable just off podium finish.

    I don't see Schleck as a contender, his climbing is too weak.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • SteveR_100Milers
    SteveR_100Milers Posts: 5,987
    andyppro wrote:
    SteveR_100Milers wrote:
    I'm afraid the cynic in me just cannot accept he is eating the same things for brekky as the others....the guy looks like a body builder. If he climbs well in the big mountains, then I for one will be unconvinced of the worth of the riders charter that he allegedly signed with all the other riders. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.....
    A sad indictment of the state of professional cycling?

    If you read Procycling this month then Rasmus Damsgaard, the guy who runs the CSC anti-doping program, says that it is close to impossible to cheat with his monitoring program in place. Which would suggest that Cancellara is doing it clean.

    Haven't the team managers/soigneurs et al all had to sign a similar declaration. I'm sorry, but I really cannot believe that these signed declarations that Prudhomme insisted upon have cleaned up cycling...really?? Maybe he is clean, I hope so, but I'm not fooled by this "charter".
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  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    No, the CSC testing regime is totally separate to that ridiculous charter of the UCI.

    The CSC programme is completely independent of the UCI and much stricter than the UCI's testing. It's run by Rasmsus Damsgaard, as mentioned above, a Danish anti-doping expert who has been very critical of cycling and doping in cycling.
  • SteveR_100Milers
    SteveR_100Milers Posts: 5,987
    so what do they do that is foolprrof...I presume DNA tracing etc?
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  • iainf72
    iainf72 Posts: 15,784
    SteveR_100Milers wrote:
    so what do they do that is foolprrof...I presume DNA tracing etc?

    Oooooooooh, no no no no no.

    Don't fall for the DNA hype. DNA has almost zero use in anti-doping. The only time its useful is in things like Puerto for identifying blood. And seeing as in the history of the sport there has been the grand total of 1 case when identifying blood bags might be desirable, well, you get the picture.

    The UCI make a big song and dance about it because it sounds high tech and impressive (IMO) but it's of limited use.

    The CSC regime is as good as you're going to get I suspect.
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  • Stark.
    Stark. Posts: 108
    Cancellara the new Indurain? I think not.

    Yes, the yellow jersey can do strange things to a rider and help them find hidden strengths, but it will not turn Cancellara from a big-ring turning time-trialists into the sort of climber who can limit his losses in the mountains to manageable proportions.

    Sastre and Schleck are CSCs GC contenders, although people are getting a bit jumpy about whether Sastre is really in the best form. Maybe that's why the team is still working pretty hard to keep Cancellara in yellow and gain as much as they can early on from the Tour. They were defending the jersey pretty strongly yesterday (stage 4) until the sprinters' teams took over for the run-in.

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