BREXIT - Bercow & Swinson Meet Their EU Bosses to Receive New Orders

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rjsterry
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby rjsterry » Sat Sep 21, 2019 19:58 pm

PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.

An admirable strategy. Realistically, this will only happen if the Lib Dems gain a working majority in parliament and unfortunately nobody has a spare squadron of pigs on standby.

Which takes us back to hard brexit/no deal. Which is what I predicted over 3 years ago due to my lack of confidence in Westminster.

Not necessarily. There are other possible outcomes, although no deal does have a fairly high probability IMO.

Please do list the alternative realistic possible outcomes at your leisure.
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Jez mon
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Jez mon » Sat Sep 21, 2019 20:07 pm

So basically, the most probable outcome is that this is not over any time soon...

If we go back to the election poll predictions, that suggested the (only?) party with a realistic chance to form a working majority would be the Tories.

It'll be interesting to see what they campaign for in an election.
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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Sat Sep 21, 2019 20:13 pm

Jez mon wrote:So basically, the most probable outcome is that this is not over any time soon...


WHO KNEW

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darkhairedlord
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby darkhairedlord » Sat Sep 21, 2019 20:18 pm

All this cum-ex stuff, is that why Reece mogg and the erg lot are desperate for no deal? European arrest warrants and all that?

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Jez mon
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Jez mon » Sat Sep 21, 2019 20:25 pm

Rick Chasey wrote:
Jez mon wrote:So basically, the most probable outcome is that this is not over any time soon...


WHO KNEW


Still, nice to see it laid out in an event tree like that.

Also if I go by "feel" I'd have put no deal as far more probable than the chart, so actually laying down the steps that have to be taken for no deal is an interesting exercise.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby PBlakeney » Sat Sep 21, 2019 20:36 pm

rjsterry wrote:A chart.

An election simply gives us more of the same sh!t for longer, another referendum through a party who couldn't arrange a party in a brewery, or an unlikely LibDem win. More likely a coalition of people who can't agree on which boat, far less the direction. My optimism abounds, as you already know.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Cruff » Sat Sep 21, 2019 20:44 pm

darkhairedlord wrote:All this cum-ex stuff, is that why Reece mogg and the erg lot are desperate for no deal? European arrest warrants and all that?

It's one of the reasons. Not 'the' reason. Lack of regulatory control in a post-Brexit Britain is another. Along with the massive amount of cash they stand to make in the chaos that ensues.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby darkhairedlord » Sat Sep 21, 2019 20:51 pm

Cruff wrote:
darkhairedlord wrote:All this cum-ex stuff, is that why Reece mogg and the erg lot are desperate for no deal? European arrest warrants and all that?

It's one of the reasons. Not 'the' reason. Lack of regulatory control in a post-Brexit Britain is another. Along with the massive amount of cash they stand to make in the chaos that ensues.

Its going to be straw that breaks the camels back. The eu will be less inclined to be reliant upon uk financial services, less inclined to do a deal and less inclined to give yet another extension.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Pross » Sat Sep 21, 2019 21:01 pm

Why is the Turkey model unacceptable? I lose track of it all. There's be a certain irony if we went on a par with them when the potential of Turkey joining the EU was one of the leave campaign's pet scare tactics.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby verylonglegs » Sat Sep 21, 2019 21:05 pm

All this talk of deals or Norway style agreements...if Johnson can't control the ERG vote then it's a waste of time isn't it? Or are we counting on Lab/Lib dem MP's to vote it through in spite of that group?

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby thecycleclinic » Sat Sep 21, 2019 21:28 pm

I think everyone's lost track of it all or has stopped caring. Brexit is proof if it was needed that poltical circles exist.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby thecycleclinic » Sat Sep 21, 2019 21:43 pm

verylonglegs wrote:All this talk of deals or Norway style agreements...if Johnson can't control the ERG vote then it's a waste of time isn't it? Or are we counting on Lab/Lib dem MP's to vote it through in spite of that group?


Corbyn has said though he has no opi ion so count on him for anything.
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Stevo 666
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 23:20 pm

PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.

An admirable strategy. Realistically, this will only happen if the Lib Dems gain a working majority in parliament and unfortunately nobody has a spare squadron of pigs on standby.

Which takes us back to hard brexit/no deal. Which is what I predicted over 3 years ago due to my lack of confidence in Westminster.

Not necessarily. There are other possible outcomes, although no deal does have a fairly high probability IMO.

Please do list the alternative realistic possible outcomes at your leisure.
I'm sure BJ would be grateful.

See above, although I ascribe a lower probability to the most likely outcome on that chart.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 23:23 pm

Pross wrote:Why is the Turkey model unacceptable? I lose track of it all. There's be a certain irony if we went on a par with them when the potential of Turkey joining the EU was one of the leave campaign's pet scare tactics.

Who said it was? Although again doesn't solve the Irish problem.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby PBlakeney » Sun Sep 22, 2019 06:55 am

Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:I'm sure BJ would be grateful.

See above, although I ascribe a lower probability to the most likely outcome on that chart.

See above, an election is just another waste of time. Solves nothing.
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Stevo 666
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 09:43 am

PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:I'm sure BJ would be grateful.

See above, although I ascribe a lower probability to the most likely outcome on that chart.

See above, an election is just another waste of time. Solves nothing.

It depends on the outcome and what you want solving.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Surrey Commuter » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:05 am

Stevo 666 wrote:
Pross wrote:Why is the Turkey model unacceptable? I lose track of it all. There's be a certain irony if we went on a par with them when the potential of Turkey joining the EU was one of the leave campaign's pet scare tactics.

Who said it was? Although again doesn't solve the Irish problem.


Gove said it was ridiculous to suggest that we would have less access to the SM than Turkey so we can put him down as thinking the Turkey model is unacceptable

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Pross » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:24 am

It seems all deal options are off the table because of the Irish border issue but no deal will lead to an automatic hard border in Ireland anyway so if that's the main sticking point it makes no sense not accepting a deal that is better for us in other ways.

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Stevo 666
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:07 pm

Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Pross wrote:Why is the Turkey model unacceptable? I lose track of it all. There's be a certain irony if we went on a par with them when the potential of Turkey joining the EU was one of the leave campaign's pet scare tactics.

Who said it was? Although again doesn't solve the Irish problem.


Gove said it was ridiculous to suggest that we would have less access to the SM than Turkey so we can put him down as thinking the Turkey model is unacceptable

I was thinking more of who on here said it, but in any event it's not a likely option regardless of what Gove thinks.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:27 pm

Pross wrote:It seems all deal options are off the table because of the Irish border issue but no deal will lead to an automatic hard border in Ireland anyway so if that's the main sticking point it makes no sense not accepting a deal that is better for us in other ways.


Norway model solves the problem


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