BREXIT - Oh For Crying Out Loud!

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Shortfall
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Shortfall » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:26 pm

Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.

So what's your idea?


If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.


This seems eminently sensible and would allow a resonable compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?
Last edited by Shortfall on Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

antonyfromoz
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby antonyfromoz » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:34 pm

Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
rjsterry wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.


Hard border innit.

If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...


First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.

That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.


They haven’t.

Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.

We are talking about alternatives to the backstop now - in case you forgot, the deal with the backbackstop was rejected 3 times by parliament.


Yeah so it’s the U.K. rejecting everything. Glad that’s cleared up.

All the suggestions since the WA from the U.K. are nonesense as they require the EU to either fully undermine its entire premise, or don’t solve the problem.

Rock and a hard place really unless one side gives, which looks unlikely at present (unless there is some change on the UK political front) - as there's no real overlap between the EU and UK positions on the Irish issue. Hence my guess of a 50% chance of a no deal.


It seems to me that this is not really a matter of the EU agreeing to suggestions from the UK, if any have actually been made, because the cold, hard reality is that there is no solution to the Irish border situation in the event of any sort of brexit, deal or no deal, that involves the UK moving away from the regulatory structure of the EU. One of the main benefits of being in the EU has been that there are seamless borders due to the regulatory alignment + we don't want that any longer. The only solution is a hard border where goods and people's identities are checked. If there was a solution on the horizon then surely the backstop, either for the whole of the UK or for NI only, would be a very short term problem and therefore tolerable to most. What suggestion from the UK side has the EU rejected that would have solved this situation without creating more issues?

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Stevo 666
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:35 pm

PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.

An admirable strategy. Realistically, this will only happen if the Lib Dems gain a working majority in parliament and unfortunately nobody has a spare squadron of pigs on standby.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:42 pm

SecretSam wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.


Hard border innit.

If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...

I seem to recall it was us who wanted to leave.
They don't have to make it easy, or fair.
And they have their own citizens and interests to protect.
Plus... most of our proposals have been unworkable. Or destroyed the GFA, which the EU underwrote.

My point still stands - if nothing is agreed then we get a hard border by default. As Rick mentions above, the EU has effectively rejected the possibilities in the papers given to them and there is no overlap between the two positions unless one side shifts.
Last edited by Stevo 666 on Sat Sep 21, 2019 14:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby antonyfromoz » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:42 pm

Shortfall wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.

So what's your idea?


If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.


This seems eminently sensible and would allow a sensible compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?

Thsi is the solution that Nigel Farage kept on bringing up when trying to get the UK to have a referendum, although he has now done a u-turn (what a surprise!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... NCwcTu9U6U.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:45 pm

Shortfall wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.

So what's your idea?


If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.


This seems eminently sensible and would allow a sensible compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?

This was also something that I would have been OK with, although it's worth pointing out that the Norway arrangement entails a 'hard' border for goods with the EU (while being a 'soft' border for people).
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:50 pm

antonyfromoz wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
rjsterry wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.


Hard border innit.

If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...


First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.

That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.


They haven’t.

Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.

We are talking about alternatives to the backstop now - in case you forgot, the deal with the backbackstop was rejected 3 times by parliament.


Yeah so it’s the U.K. rejecting everything. Glad that’s cleared up.

All the suggestions since the WA from the U.K. are nonesense as they require the EU to either fully undermine its entire premise, or don’t solve the problem.

Rock and a hard place really unless one side gives, which looks unlikely at present (unless there is some change on the UK political front) - as there's no real overlap between the EU and UK positions on the Irish issue. Hence my guess of a 50% chance of a no deal.


It seems to me that this is not really a matter of the EU agreeing to suggestions from the UK, if any have actually been made, because the cold, hard reality is that there is no solution to the Irish border situation in the event of any sort of brexit, deal or no deal, that involves the UK moving away from the regulatory structure of the EU. One of the main benefits of being in the EU has been that there are seamless borders due to the regulatory alignment + we don't want that any longer. The only solution is a hard border where goods and people's identities are checked. If there was a solution on the horizon then surely the backstop, either for the whole of the UK or for NI only, would be a very short term problem and therefore tolerable to most. What suggestion from the UK side has the EU rejected that would have solved this situation without creating more issues?

As mentioned, I don't think there is a mutually agreeable solution with both sides having their current positions. If this is the case then it doesn't really matter what the UK suggests as it will be rejected.

The EU may be secretly banking on a political change creating a shift in the UK position: clearly the risk is that if this doesn't happen then we get a no deal and a hard border.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby antonyfromoz » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:53 pm

Stevo 666 wrote:
Shortfall wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.

So what's your idea?


If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.


This seems eminently sensible and would allow a sensible compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?

This was also something that I would have been OK with, although it's worth pointing out that the Norway arrangement entails a 'hard' border for goods with the EU (while being a 'soft' border for people).


Norway does pretty much also have freedom of movement, being in the Schengen area (unlike the UK), and has a high degree of regulatory alignment with the EU while having no say in the formation of the regulations. I understand that they also contribute as much or more money per capita than the UK.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby antonyfromoz » Sat Sep 21, 2019 13:55 pm

Stevo 666 wrote:
antonyfromoz wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
rjsterry wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.


Hard border innit.

If the EU continue to reject all UK suggestions, this is what they will get...


First we need to make some suggestions. We've very specifically stated that we won't be making any formal suggestions until we are ready.

That is still what will happen if they reject all suggestions.


They haven’t.

Backstop was U.K. idea, remember.

We are talking about alternatives to the backstop now - in case you forgot, the deal with the backbackstop was rejected 3 times by parliament.


Yeah so it’s the U.K. rejecting everything. Glad that’s cleared up.

All the suggestions since the WA from the U.K. are nonesense as they require the EU to either fully undermine its entire premise, or don’t solve the problem.

Rock and a hard place really unless one side gives, which looks unlikely at present (unless there is some change on the UK political front) - as there's no real overlap between the EU and UK positions on the Irish issue. Hence my guess of a 50% chance of a no deal.


It seems to me that this is not really a matter of the EU agreeing to suggestions from the UK, if any have actually been made, because the cold, hard reality is that there is no solution to the Irish border situation in the event of any sort of brexit, deal or no deal, that involves the UK moving away from the regulatory structure of the EU. One of the main benefits of being in the EU has been that there are seamless borders due to the regulatory alignment + we don't want that any longer. The only solution is a hard border where goods and people's identities are checked. If there was a solution on the horizon then surely the backstop, either for the whole of the UK or for NI only, would be a very short term problem and therefore tolerable to most. What suggestion from the UK side has the EU rejected that would have solved this situation without creating more issues?

As mentioned, I don't think there is a mutually agreeable solution with both sides having their current positions. If this is the case then it doesn't really matter what the UK suggests as it will be rejected.

The EU may be secretly banking on a political change creating a shift in the UK position: clearly the risk is that if this doesn't happen then we get a no deal and a hard border.

But Stevo, is there a solution that would work? I cannot think of another pair of countries that share a land border that could serve as a model we could adapt.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 14:02 pm

antonyfromoz wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
Shortfall wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.

So what's your idea?


If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.


This seems eminently sensible and would allow a sensible compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?

This was also something that I would have been OK with, although it's worth pointing out that the Norway arrangement entails a 'hard' border for goods with the EU (while being a 'soft' border for people).


Norway does pretty much also have freedom of movement, being in the Schengen area (unlike the UK), and has a high degree of regulatory alignment with the EU while having no say in the formation of the regulations. I understand that they also contribute as much or more money per capita than the UK.

That is what I'm saying about movement of people. Unfortunately the hard border for goods means that this would not appear to be a solution for our Irish border issue.

At the risk of reposting it ad nauseam, here's where Norway sits in the EU domain:

Image

The contribution per capita and lack of say in rule making are different issues, but unlikely to make it popular with everyone.
Last edited by Stevo 666 on Sat Sep 21, 2019 14:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 14:23 pm

antonyfromoz wrote:But Stevo, is there a solution that would work? I cannot think of another pair of countries that share a land border that could serve as a model we could adapt.

I'm not sure. The only other current comparative is Turkey which is soft border for goods and hard border for people (opposite of the Norway model).

If push came to shove in the current situation I would go for the border down the Irish Sea. Not perfect I know but feasible. Norway and A50 revocation have both been mentioned, but for different reasons are not realistic current prospects (rightly or wrongly).
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Robert88 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 14:34 pm

Thomas Cook attempts to model Brexit.

Should you stay or should you go?

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Surrey Commuter » Sat Sep 21, 2019 15:31 pm

Shortfall wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.

So what's your idea?


If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.


This seems eminently sensible and would allow a resonable compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?


I think the awkward squad did a good job of stringing TM along. If she had figured out earlier that they would never compromise she could have sought cross party census.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Jez mon » Sat Sep 21, 2019 16:57 pm

Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shortfall wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:That'll be the non existent (AFAWK) alternatives to the UK proposal which was rejected by the UK parliament 3 times then? Yes, I can see why the EU is getting the blame.

So what's your idea?


If we are serious about protecting UK economy and Irish border then do a Norway with a view that it will either be permanent or a transition period (10 years) until we see an alternative that is beneficial to us.


This seems eminently sensible and would allow a resonable compromise giving both sides a lot of what they want. I don't understand why it's not even being considered?


I think the awkward squad did a good job of stringing TM along. If she had figured out earlier that they would never compromise she could have sought cross party census.


I think TM viewed the Brexit vote as primarily a rejection of freedom of movement. From that point on, she was always going to end up with a deal that was more tied towards pleasing the hardcore brexiters, and less about bringing the remainers along for the ride.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby PBlakeney » Sat Sep 21, 2019 17:43 pm

Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.

An admirable strategy. Realistically, this will only happen if the Lib Dems gain a working majority in parliament and unfortunately nobody has a spare squadron of pigs on standby.

Which takes us back to hard brexit/no deal. Which is what I predicted over 3 years ago due to my lack of confidence in Westminster.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Pross » Sat Sep 21, 2019 19:01 pm

PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.


If they revoke the A30 how will Londoners get to their Cornish holiday homes?

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 19:01 pm

PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.

An admirable strategy. Realistically, this will only happen if the Lib Dems gain a working majority in parliament and unfortunately nobody has a spare squadron of pigs on standby.

Which takes us back to hard brexit/no deal. Which is what I predicted over 3 years ago due to my lack of confidence in Westminster.

Not necessarily. There are other possible outcomes, although no deal does have a fairly high probability IMO.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 19:03 pm

Pross wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.


If they revoke the A30 how will Londoners get to their Cornish holiday homes?

It's a lot more important than the traffic between Leicester and Warrington.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby rjsterry » Sat Sep 21, 2019 19:17 pm

Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.

An admirable strategy. Realistically, this will only happen if the Lib Dems gain a working majority in parliament and unfortunately nobody has a spare squadron of pigs on standby.

Which takes us back to hard brexit/no deal. Which is what I predicted over 3 years ago due to my lack of confidence in Westminster.

Not necessarily. There are other possible outcomes, although no deal does have a fairly high probability IMO.

That chart I posted previously has been updated.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby PBlakeney » Sat Sep 21, 2019 19:32 pm

Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:
Stevo 666 wrote:
PBlakeney wrote:My solution is to revoke A30. It was an advisory vote and right now is looking like a bloody stupid idea. Yes there will be fallout but there will be fallout with every outcome.

An admirable strategy. Realistically, this will only happen if the Lib Dems gain a working majority in parliament and unfortunately nobody has a spare squadron of pigs on standby.

Which takes us back to hard brexit/no deal. Which is what I predicted over 3 years ago due to my lack of confidence in Westminster.

Not necessarily. There are other possible outcomes, although no deal does have a fairly high probability IMO.

Please do list the alternative realistic possible outcomes at your leisure.
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