BREXIT - Oh For Crying Out Loud!

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 13:33 pm

TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 13:35 pm

Rick Chasey wrote:
TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)



Ok not quite right

YouGov - 2019-09-18
Con: 32%
LDem: 23%
Lab: 21%
BRX: 14%
Grn: 4%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%
UKIP: 1%

Flavible Projection
CON: 331 (+13)
LAB: 155 (-107)
LDEM: 88 (+76)
SNP: 51 (+16)
PC: 6 (+2)
GRN: 1 (-)
Changes w/ 2017

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rjsterry
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby rjsterry » Fri Sep 20, 2019 13:43 pm

Interesting that Nigel continues to be Mr F*** All.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Pross » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:10 pm

Rick Chasey wrote:
TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)


The lack of correlation between vote share and share of seats under FPTP really is stark. Is it simply that Lib Dems are often second choice whereas in Labour heartlands the Tories get nothing and vice versa?

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:20 pm

Pross wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)


The lack of correlation between vote share and share of seats under FPTP really is stark. Is it simply that Lib Dems are often second choice whereas in Labour heartlands the Tories get nothing and vice versa?


Broadly speaking labour benefit most from current boundaries, followed by the Tories.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby KingstonGraham » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:40 pm

Rick Chasey wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)



Ok not quite right

YouGov - 2019-09-18
Con: 32%
LDem: 23%
Lab: 21%
BRX: 14%
Grn: 4%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%
UKIP: 1%

Flavible Projection
CON: 331 (+13)
LAB: 155 (-107)
LDEM: 88 (+76)
SNP: 51 (+16)
PC: 6 (+2)
GRN: 1 (-)
Changes w/ 2017


So the Tories go down 10% of the vote and up 13 seats. That seems fair.
and then the next thing you know

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby TailWindHome » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:44 pm

Rick Chasey wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)



Ok not quite right

YouGov - 2019-09-18
Con: 32%
LDem: 23%
Lab: 21%
BRX: 14%
Grn: 4%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%
UKIP: 1%

Flavible Projection
CON: 331 (+13)
LAB: 155 (-107)
LDEM: 88 (+76)
SNP: 51 (+16)
PC: 6 (+2)
GRN: 1 (-)
Changes w/ 2017



I think there'll be huge surprises when in comes to % swings and seats won and lost.
I'd take seat projections with bucketfuls of salt.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby TailWindHome » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:47 pm

Emily Thornberry wrote:The Lib Dems have gotten kind of Taliban, haven’t they? They’ve said they’re just going to revoke, there’s not going to be another referendum.


Tim Farron
@timfarron
Come on Emily, if we really were like a Middle East terrorist group, don’t you think Jeremy would’ve invited us to a conference fringe meeting before now?
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:48 pm

TailWindHome wrote:
Emily Thornberry wrote:The Lib Dems have gotten kind of Taliban, haven’t they? They’ve said they’re just going to revoke, there’s not going to be another referendum.


Tim Farron
@timfarron
Come on Emily, if we really were like a Middle East terrorist group, don’t you think Jeremy would’ve invited us to a conference fringe meeting before now?

:D

That was a good come back by Farron.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Stevo 666 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:49 pm

Rick Chasey wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)



Ok not quite right

YouGov - 2019-09-18
Con: 32%
LDem: 23%
Lab: 21%
BRX: 14%
Grn: 4%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%
UKIP: 1%

Flavible Projection
CON: 331 (+13)
LAB: 155 (-107)
LDEM: 88 (+76)
SNP: 51 (+16)
PC: 6 (+2)
GRN: 1 (-)
Changes w/ 2017

No wonder Corbyn wimped out on a GE.
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby rjsterry » Fri Sep 20, 2019 14:56 pm

TailWindHome wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
TailWindHome wrote:Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via
@YouGov
.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.


That's a nice wee bounce.

Labour need to find a coherent policy at conference.

Boris has peaked - it's do or die for him now


Projected onto seats, Lib Dems get something like 23 seats, so it's not all that exciting.

(Saw this on twitter by someone who does it for a living)



Ok not quite right

YouGov - 2019-09-18
Con: 32%
LDem: 23%
Lab: 21%
BRX: 14%
Grn: 4%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%
UKIP: 1%

Flavible Projection
CON: 331 (+13)
LAB: 155 (-107)
LDEM: 88 (+76)
SNP: 51 (+16)
PC: 6 (+2)
GRN: 1 (-)
Changes w/ 2017



I think there'll be huge surprises when in comes to % swings and seats won and lost.
I'd take seat projections with bucketfuls of salt.


Of course. If Johnson fails to leave on 31st, I think 0 seats for Nigel is a bit optimistic.
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rjsterry
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby rjsterry » Fri Sep 20, 2019 17:36 pm

Also worth reminding everyone of the difference between polls before an election is announced and the final result.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby TheBigBean » Fri Sep 20, 2019 18:07 pm


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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby briantrumpet » Fri Sep 20, 2019 18:23 pm

TheBigBean wrote:Update from Tony Connelly

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/092 ... od-brexit/

It doesn't dispel the impression that the UK is asking for things it knows the EU & Irish won't accept.

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby crispybug2 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 18:31 pm

TailWindHome wrote:
Emily Thornberry wrote:The Lib Dems have gotten kind of Taliban, haven’t they? They’ve said they’re just going to revoke, there’s not going to be another referendum.


Tim Farron
@timfarron
Come on Emily, if we really were like a Middle East terrorist group, don’t you think Jeremy would’ve invited us to a conference fringe meeting before now?



Ouch!

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Re: BREXIT - End Game?

Postby Bikes and dogs » Fri Sep 20, 2019 20:17 pm

Robert88 wrote:
Bikes and dogs wrote:Hi Ian Blackford and Nicola Sturgeon. As a born and bred Glaswegian now living in England - I am insulted that you claim a mandate to stop us leaving the EU on behalf of all Scots. (Oh sorry - should I have used your sound-bite "CRASHING OUT"?)
There are no constituencies in a referendum. You were on the wrong side of the biggest democratic vote in British history.
Pipe down.


The biggest confidence trick in British history is what you really mean.

Anyway, we are not destined to get out of this mess. It's the end game all right: in the decline and fall of the British Empire. The break up of the UK is inevitable. Stop moaning and accept the inevitable, pal. You will be sent back Glasgow in due course.


You make a lot of points, though there may be a stewards enquiry as to whether I should "be sent back to Glasgow" - my mum was English.
I have a cunning plan. Sir Dave Brailsford should be put in charge of the wind farms. Marginal gains, low friction, energy efficiency, wind resistance, maximum watts. Within 10 years we'll be knocking out kick ass wind turbines. People trying to sell fossil fuels will be so old hat. It'll be like the industrial revolution all over again.

The Empire will be saved.

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 20:50 pm

Oh dear

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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Shirley Basso » Fri Sep 20, 2019 21:02 pm

What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 21:04 pm

Shirley Basso wrote:What happens to the border in a hard brexit scenario.


Hard border innit.

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Complete Meltdown

Postby Rick Chasey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 21:07 pm

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