BREXIT - Meh.

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Rick Chasey » Tue Jun 11, 2019 17:17 pm

Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:Ah.


even worse they are likely (if successful) to need extra rounds of funding


If you run an open ended find with lots of illiquid investments (because you are a “long term investor”) you better make bloody sure your liquid investments are on the money, and not who’s-who of ftse100 & 250 car crashes.

He’s made a classic case of underperformance, which all managers go through, and turned it into an existential liquidity problem.

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rjsterry
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby rjsterry » Tue Jun 11, 2019 18:05 pm

Just to break away from the City jargon for a moment, Rory Stewart is opting for quite a bold strategy. He's suggesting that he is minded to support Labour's attempt to block no-deal. Given that the Government will whip against it and he will be sacked as international development secretary, it's an odd place to start your campaign for leader.

The party will never elect him, which is their loss if they ever want a majority again.
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Mr Goo
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Mr Goo » Tue Jun 11, 2019 18:19 pm

rjsterry wrote:Just to break away from the City jargon for a moment, Rory Stewart is opting for quite a bold strategy. He's suggesting that he is minded to support Labour's attempt to block no-deal. Given that the Government will whip against it and he will be sacked as international development secretary, it's an odd place to start your campaign for leader.

The party will never elect him, which is their loss if they ever want a majority again.


Shame. I've always felt that Rod Stewart would make an excellent PM. Certainly can't be worse than James Brown.
Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.

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rjsterry
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby rjsterry » Tue Jun 11, 2019 18:38 pm

The various political commentators on Twitter are going nuts for Stewart. Gushing would be a good description. James O'Brien reckons he would "annihilate" Corbyn in a GE, but everyone seems to agree that his party will reject him. I guess they aren't interested in winning.

Edit: now that he's read the Labour motion he's decided he won't vote for it, so he won't need to be sacked.

Also, some interesting reporting that some no-dealers are supporting Johnson because they think he'll make that happen and at the same time he's picking up supporters who think he definitely won't go for no deal. A good trick if you can pull it off, but Mr Corbyn's experience suggests you have to pick a side.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
1980s BSA 10sp

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Robert88
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Robert88 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 19:27 pm

Rick Chasey wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:Ah.


even worse they are likely (if successful) to need extra rounds of funding


If you run an open ended find with lots of illiquid investments (because you are a “long term investor”) you better make bloody sure your liquid investments are on the money, and not who’s-who of ftse100 & 250 car crashes.

He’s made a classic case of underperformance, which all managers go through, and turned it into an existential liquidity problem.


You are picking on Woodford but maybe his predicament is a straw in the wind. HL's share price doesn't seem to be recovering yet from backing what you suggest is "a classic case of under performance, which all managers go through".

The liquidity problem might prove to be wider and deeper than you suggest. There is also the problem that large companies like HL have large backers in the same game; they hang together lest they be hung out to dry separately.

It may not be another BCCI, Northern Rock or Equitable Life, but when do you find out?

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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Surrey Commuter » Tue Jun 11, 2019 19:43 pm

Robert88 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:Ah.


even worse they are likely (if successful) to need extra rounds of funding


If you run an open ended find with lots of illiquid investments (because you are a “long term investor”) you better make bloody sure your liquid investments are on the money, and not who’s-who of ftse100 & 250 car crashes.

He’s made a classic case of underperformance, which all managers go through, and turned it into an existential liquidity problem.


You are picking on Woodford but maybe his predicament is a straw in the wind. HL's share price doesn't seem to be recovering yet from backing what you suggest is "a classic case of under performance, which all managers go through".

The liquidity problem might prove to be wider and deeper than you suggest. There is also the problem that large companies like HL have large backers in the same game; they hang together lest they be hung out to dry separately.

It may not be another BCCI, Northern Rock or Equitable Life, but when do you find out?


Can you explain what you mean about liquidity.

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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Shirley Basso » Tue Jun 11, 2019 20:31 pm

Investors can't sell their shares in the fund to get their money back because Woodford can't sell the investments the fund holds as they aren't listed shares - there is no exchange to sell them.

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TailWindHome
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby TailWindHome » Tue Jun 11, 2019 20:50 pm

This twitter thread is the best.

https://twitter.com/LanceForman/status/ ... 9554778112

"There's no democracy here!"
"ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? IS THIS NOT WHY YOU ARE HERE?"

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TailWindHome
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby TailWindHome » Tue Jun 11, 2019 20:52 pm

No wait

This one could be better.

https://twitter.com/LanceForman/status/ ... 0292800513

"Thankfully the British taxpayer has paid for a nice fleet of Mercs and very charming drivers."




(Have I been taken in by a parody account? It must be)
"ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? IS THIS NOT WHY YOU ARE HERE?"

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rjsterry
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby rjsterry » Tue Jun 11, 2019 22:36 pm

Well, Nigel did hand pick the candidates and is obviously worried about anyone stealing any limelight from him, so you just want someone moderately able to follow instructions but unlikely to get any ideas.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
1980s BSA 10sp

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Robert88
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Robert88 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 18:14 pm

Surrey Commuter wrote:
Robert88 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:Ah.


even worse they are likely (if successful) to need extra rounds of funding


If you run an open ended find with lots of illiquid investments (because you are a “long term investor”) you better make bloody sure your liquid investments are on the money, and not who’s-who of ftse100 & 250 car crashes.

He’s made a classic case of underperformance, which all managers go through, and turned it into an existential liquidity problem.


You are picking on Woodford but maybe his predicament is a straw in the wind. HL's share price doesn't seem to be recovering yet from backing what you suggest is "a classic case of under performance, which all managers go through".

The liquidity problem might prove to be wider and deeper than you suggest. There is also the problem that large companies like HL have large backers in the same game; they hang together lest they be hung out to dry separately.

It may not be another BCCI, Northern Rock or Equitable Life, but when do you find out?


Can you explain what you mean about liquidity.


For example, it is reported that since the banks had to improve their solvency ratios they have been willing to sell debt to people like Woodford who wanted the level of returns commensurate with the risk the banks wanted to offload. If the likes of Woodford decide they want out who is going to buy the asset at the price he needs?

Woodford was unlikely to be the only investor in such debt and there are other forms of debt with the same profile. A heck of a lot, in fact. Maybe not quite sub-prime mortgage territory but it could be very damaging.

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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Surrey Commuter » Wed Jun 12, 2019 19:31 pm

Robert88 wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Robert88 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:Ah.


even worse they are likely (if successful) to need extra rounds of funding


If you run an open ended find with lots of illiquid investments (because you are a “long term investor”) you better make bloody sure your liquid investments are on the money, and not who’s-who of ftse100 & 250 car crashes.

He’s made a classic case of underperformance, which all managers go through, and turned it into an existential liquidity problem.


You are picking on Woodford but maybe his predicament is a straw in the wind. HL's share price doesn't seem to be recovering yet from backing what you suggest is "a classic case of under performance, which all managers go through".

The liquidity problem might prove to be wider and deeper than you suggest. There is also the problem that large companies like HL have large backers in the same game; they hang together lest they be hung out to dry separately.

It may not be another BCCI, Northern Rock or Equitable Life, but when do you find out?


Can you explain what you mean about liquidity.


For example, it is reported that since the banks had to improve their solvency ratios they have been willing to sell debt to people like Woodford who wanted the level of returns commensurate with the risk the banks wanted to offload. If the likes of Woodford decide they want out who is going to buy the asset at the price he needs?

Woodford was unlikely to be the only investor in such debt and there are other forms of debt with the same profile. A heck of a lot, in fact. Maybe not quite sub-prime mortgage territory but it could be very damaging.


I was not aware Woodford was buying debt off the banks, if he did it has not been widely reported. His problem is that he owns shares that are not traded on any exchange.

Most funds hold very small % of listed companies so they can easily sell and pay back investors.

Funds with illiquid assets such as property and corporate bonds are only available to institutional and professional investors who tend not to act irrationally. Some property funds were gated in 2007 and post referendum but there was no stampede when they reopened

If you want to worry about something then check out public sector unfounded pension liabilities or at a push car finance.

mrfpb
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby mrfpb » Wed Jun 12, 2019 20:00 pm

The first time Rory Stewart was suggested as leadership contender I thought he was the "John Major " candidate of the race. Not many friends compared to the "names" but far fewer enemies.

However he will be anhilated by the membership vote, if he makes it that far.

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darkhairedlord
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby darkhairedlord » Wed Jun 12, 2019 20:06 pm

mrfpb wrote:The first time Rory Stewart was suggested as leadership contender I thought he was the "John Major " candidate of the race. Not many friends compared to the "names" but far fewer enemies.

However he will be anhilated by the membership vote, if he makes it that far.

Not so sure. If Johnson implodes he might get in. I wonder how much he has spent on NDA's this month.

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Rick Chasey » Wed Jun 12, 2019 20:35 pm

Robert88 wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Robert88 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:Ah.


even worse they are likely (if successful) to need extra rounds of funding


If you run an open ended find with lots of illiquid investments (because you are a “long term investor”) you better make bloody sure your liquid investments are on the money, and not who’s-who of ftse100 & 250 car crashes.

He’s made a classic case of underperformance, which all managers go through, and turned it into an existential liquidity problem.


You are picking on Woodford but maybe his predicament is a straw in the wind. HL's share price doesn't seem to be recovering yet from backing what you suggest is "a classic case of under performance, which all managers go through".

The liquidity problem might prove to be wider and deeper than you suggest. There is also the problem that large companies like HL have large backers in the same game; they hang together lest they be hung out to dry separately.

It may not be another BCCI, Northern Rock or Equitable Life, but when do you find out?


Can you explain what you mean about liquidity.


For example, it is reported that since the banks had to improve their solvency ratios they have been willing to sell debt to people like Woodford who wanted the level of returns commensurate with the risk the banks wanted to offload. If the likes of Woodford decide they want out who is going to buy the asset at the price he needs?

Woodford was unlikely to be the only investor in such debt and there are other forms of debt with the same profile. A heck of a lot, in fact. Maybe not quite sub-prime mortgage territory but it could be very damaging.


Mate it’s an equity fund.

Liquidity is just how many buyers and sellers there are.

Woodford’s problem is he has a load of unquoted weird sh!t in his fund and if enough people wanted their money back he’d have to sell them and it’d be an absolute fire sale, so the valuations he’s been goving would fall through the floor and lose the remaining investors a d!ck tonne.

It’s nout to do with solvency. It’s a fund. Either people put their money in or they take it out.

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Robert88
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Robert88 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 08:14 am

Rick Chasey wrote:
Robert88 wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Robert88 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Shirley Basso wrote:Ah.


even worse they are likely (if successful) to need extra rounds of funding


If you run an open ended find with lots of illiquid investments (because you are a “long term investor”) you better make bloody sure your liquid investments are on the money, and not who’s-who of ftse100 & 250 car crashes.

He’s made a classic case of underperformance, which all managers go through, and turned it into an existential liquidity problem.


You are picking on Woodford but maybe his predicament is a straw in the wind. HL's share price doesn't seem to be recovering yet from backing what you suggest is "a classic case of under performance, which all managers go through".

The liquidity problem might prove to be wider and deeper than you suggest. There is also the problem that large companies like HL have large backers in the same game; they hang together lest they be hung out to dry separately.

It may not be another BCCI, Northern Rock or Equitable Life, but when do you find out?


Can you explain what you mean about liquidity.


For example, it is reported that since the banks had to improve their solvency ratios they have been willing to sell debt to people like Woodford who wanted the level of returns commensurate with the risk the banks wanted to offload. If the likes of Woodford decide they want out who is going to buy the asset at the price he needs?

Woodford was unlikely to be the only investor in such debt and there are other forms of debt with the same profile. A heck of a lot, in fact. Maybe not quite sub-prime mortgage territory but it could be very damaging.


Mate it’s an equity fund.

Liquidity is just how many buyers and sellers there are.

Woodford’s problem is he has a load of unquoted weird sh!t in his fund and if enough people wanted their money back he’d have to sell them and it’d be an absolute fire sale, so the valuations he’s been goving would fall through the floor and lose the remaining investors a d!ck tonne.

It’s nout to do with solvency. It’s a fund. Either people put their money in or they take it out.


Yes. You seemed to have grasped some of it.

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Rick Chasey » Thu Jun 13, 2019 08:18 am

Sure, but you're talking about debt but Woodford is an equity investor and the fund in question is an equity fund.

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Robert88
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Robert88 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 08:31 am

Rick Chasey wrote:Sure, but you're talking about debt but Woodford is an equity investor and the fund in question is an equity fund.


Equity can be viewed as a form of debt.

But in the context of this thread, the issue is that if you invest in the UK economy right now as a professional with targets to meet and you own assets whose value is affected by Brexit then, as Woodford has discovered, now is not a good moment for people to want their money back. Lots more people might get twitchy and want their money back. Remember the queues outside Northern Rock? He is no doubt praying for more time and that things will improve and yet our future leaders are walking us towards no-deal. It is reported that only a small proportion of UK businesses are prepared for no-deal.

Is Woodford is playing the canary in the coal mine?

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rjsterry
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby rjsterry » Thu Jun 13, 2019 08:35 am

Robert88 wrote:
Equity can be viewed as a form of debt.



?

Not sure you need Woodford to know that businesses in the UK are holding their breath at the moment.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
1980s BSA 10sp

Liberal metropolitan, remoaner, traitor, "sympathiser", etc.

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Rick Chasey
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Re: BREXIT - Ich Bin Auslander

Postby Rick Chasey » Thu Jun 13, 2019 08:40 am

Robert88 wrote:
Rick Chasey wrote:Sure, but you're talking about debt but Woodford is an equity investor and the fund in question is an equity fund.


Equity can be viewed as a form of debt.



You brought it up in the context of banks selling off debt to investors.

Robert88 wrote:For example, it is reported that since the banks had to improve their solvency ratios they have been willing to sell debt to people like Woodford who wanted the level of returns commensurate with the risk the banks wanted to offload. If the likes of Woodford decide they want out who is going to buy the asset at the price he needs?

Woodford was unlikely to be the only investor in such debt and there are other forms of debt with the same profile. A heck of a lot, in fact. Maybe not quite sub-prime mortgage territory but it could be very damaging.


Equity is not debt. Debt is debt. Equity is equity. It's not in the eye of the beholder.

And in answer to your question - if I may reply with one of my own - Woodford is the canary in the coalmine for what exactly?


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