Tour de France 2024 Rest Day 1 ***SPOILERS***
So, nine stages in and it's been pretty eventful, with plenty of stories for the next Netflix Unchained season.
Cav's 35th, Bini's two stages and green jersey, a Norwegian big unit in spots (and green for a while), and Jasper Philipsen still without a victory. Arkea finally broke their duck and Turgis finally got his big win.
Meanwhile Pog hasn't killed off Jonas yet and the fear of week 3 Vingegaard is starting to creep into his head - not that anybody knows if Jonas will actually have his traditional third week surge. Remco has looked pretty good, Roglic has looked pretty rubbish, both those statuses could change.
Nobody ended their race on the gravel, even though Remco seemed to suffer a rush of blood to the... err... balls. Vingegaard is now attracting a lot of criticism in the more fanboy oriented commentary for not racing like a 12 year old off his head on Haribo, but that's to be expected in cycling discourse in this age.
So what's the rest day chat?
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What evidence do you have that Pogacar fears week three Jonas?
I think it's telling that Visma-Lease-a-Bike as a team, have been virtually invisible up until yesterday, and their efforts there were overwhelmingly defensive. They've shown in the last two Tours that you can beat Pogacar if you make the race hard over it's duration, but they don't have the firepower to do that this year, and it's unlikely that Vingegaard would be able to cope with that strategy anyway with the form he has.
Most of the remaining GC stages are going to be in the high mountains and the UAE team is far more suited to that terrain than VLAB, as they showed on Stage 4 on the Galibier. The only chance they have of victory, in my opinion, is if Pogacar has a bad day, and they don't really have the resources to try and facilitate that.
What I think we'll see instead is UAE isolating Vingegaard and then Pogacar can exploit any sign of weakness. I think UAE will focus on eliminating Evenepoel at every opportunity as he looks more of a threat at this point in the race.
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Eurgh. Rest day.
It's been a really fun week. This next week looks a bit more low key until the weekend - some sprints, some breakaway days. But the weekend looks very tasty. Vingegaard has to actually get to week three in touching distance first.
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Good first week, even the boring stages had something of interest at the end. Critically we are a week in and the GC is still in play with enough questions over each rider to keep it interesting. Jonas has looked better than I'd expected but his team look poor, Pog hasn't been able to dominate as he did against the B team riders at the Giro. UAE were superb in the mountains but have left him a bit isolated in a couple of potentially dangerous situations on flat stages. Remco is there or thereabouts but there are possibly questions on how well he manage when we get fully into the mountains. On the sprint side, Philipsen being winless is a bit of a shock and I hadn't expected Girmay to pick up wins in full bunch sprints. Cav was a superb moment, I only saw it happening if there were incidents for a few of teh other sprinters but that win really rolled back the years.
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My suspicion that Pog fears week 3 Vingegaard is based on what he's tried to throw at Jonas so far this Tour, and how he was talking about Jonas not working on yesterday's gravel stage. Nobody could rightly expect Jonas to work on gravel with Pog, isolated from his team, when Pog won Strade Bianche from 80km out solo while Jonas's best gravel result is number two at the GP Viborg in 2017 (Asgreen won). His disappointment that Jonas wasn't stupid enough to fall for such obvious bait was palpable. More to the point, we know Pog likes to take risks, but he must certainly have thought the possible reward was pretty big to put himself in a position where a puncture could also end his Tour chances. He wouldn't be doing that just to put Roglic out of the picture. Yeah he's a racer and all that, but it smacks a little of desperation.
Madiot said the Tour would be over in 4 days and it clearly isn't, after 9.
As for Vingegaard being on the back foot and what the third week might bring - absolutely nobody knows if he'll have that third week form this time round, it's a massive doubt. But it's the only chance he has to win the Tour so that's the strategy they have to play. He comes in undercooked and potentially wonky in the head on descents and gets a very quick test. He stays with Pog on a muur and descent finish, Pog gets the better of him with an up and over on Galibier, where his legs/weight work against him on the descent, but his head is fine in the technical upper part. He ships 35" to the TT world champ on a course that suits Remco really nicely, and 25" to Pog there - results that are well in scope of "that'll do". Pog's thrown the kitchen sink at him and he's still sitting there just behind him.
He hasn't been able to make the race hard so far, but others have done that for him a bit. It might have been nice to get Wout up the road occasionally, or at least force UAE to control the break, but Wout's form is dodgy and the parcours hasn't really lent itself to causing an issue for UAE. Pog himself hasn't been particularly conservative anyway - yesterday a prime example of a lot of wasted effort. Meanwhile Pog has had yellow jersey duties for days now, while Vingegaard is chilling in his bus as soon as he's warmed down. There's some potential to try and disrupt on some of the later hilly stages - if only to wear UAE domestiques out.
The high mountains will be difficult with the team that UAE have brought but maybe Vingegaard can tempt Pog into some one on one action (Jonas should probably just drop a comment about Pog hiding behind his team and not being ballsy..). If he's got the form when he needs it that's where it'll happen. It's probably worth wondering whether part of the reason Jonas wasn't keen on riding yesterday to "sort the podium out" was that it wouldn't be a bad thing at all if Bora and Ineos still thought they had a stake in things later in the race.
Anyway, Vingegaard is clearly all in for the win, and for that he needs to beat Pog. And if he can beat Pog then the others are all pretty much beaten by default. And if he doesn't have classic high mountain Vingegaard form in the last week? Then he's not winning anything anyway and was never going to.
TL:DR
It's all still up for grabs and nobody knows if Vingegaard will find killer form but that's the hand he has to play
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In other rest day news: No big surprise, but Mørkøv announces that this season is his last. He'll bow out, quite fittingly, with the track Worlds in Ballerup, Copenhagen in October
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Pog is probably aware that Vingegaard is the main threat - he must be - but I'm not convinced his aggression yesterday was because he fears him. It was worth testing Vingegaard out - Pogacar likes that terrain and with a rest day and what looks like an easier week he probably just thought why not. He's an aggressive racer which is why he's popular. Yes it was a bit of a risk had he gone away with the others then punctured but then why didn't Vingegaard say ok we'll take the risk because Pog has the most to lose ?
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
Marc Madiot has said a lot of things, many of which have turned out to be not true.
There's a load of nonsense spoken, and written, ahead of the Tour. I bet all those journalists who were predicting a clean sweep of the podium for UAE have gone quiet. I can't believe editors were commissioning guff like that, it was clear that Pogacar was the sole leader of UAE and the ambitions of the rest of the team would be sacrificed to ensure his success.
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Ayuso and Almeida are both closer to Vingegaard than he is to Pog.
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Madiot said the Tour would be over in 4 days
did he say which 4 days?
BASI Nordic Ski Instructor
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I think, as is your right as a big fanboi, you're overplaying his 3rd week strength.
I tend to think 3rd week strength is really about amplifying the great legs you already have, in combination with how much you saved compared to your rivals.
I don't think he has the legs, and all that defensive work this time is not because he's saving his mega legs for when they count for more, but because he's trying to not let his inferior legs lose him too much time.
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I have news for you. It's the first of two rest days.😉
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
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Like the riders, and I'm sure yourself, I have got into a routine. I need to go on youtube and watch some riders going for a gentle spin to keep myself from losing the viewing form I'm now in.
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Yes, third week form is about not degrading as fast as your competition, though with the potential to also time a form peak to be slightly after race start. I think he'll be hoping his form improves, as well as that Pog deteriorates. Last year he had a weight-loss scheduled in the 2nd week (I think). That's a frightening level of detail in all that science of diet and performance stuff.
I'll own being a fan boi, though I'm also a Pog fan because you'd be mad not to be. And I've never said he's saving some incredible legs, he's clearly limiting losses, which even if you don't like him saying it, is what he's been saying all week 😉
The main point though is that he knows that if he can find anything like his top form then he can beat anyone in the peloton, including Pog, in the high mountains. Pog knows that too, which is why he's been trying to finish him as soon as possible, as Madiot thought he would (don't worry, I've not become a Madiot fan, he's full of shit 99% of the time). I think Geraint and Rowe also thought that would be his strategy in pre-tour podcasts. It's not exactly revolutionary.
As for yesterday, where a puncture while isolated was an equal risk for all GC contenders, why didn't Vingegaard say ok we'll take the risk because Pog has the most to lose? Clearly they've all got the same possible loss, but they haven't all got the same potential gain. Pog stood to win way more than Vingegaard even without any mechanicals coming into play. Pog bet the house on being able to win a house. Vingegaard was asked to bet the house on Pog not winning the house.
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Nice. I genuinely think Visma are trying to get into Pog and Remco's heads.
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I would laugh very hard if Roglic ends up on the podium ahead of Vingers though. A big big big belly laugh.
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I am now so hyped on this idea (also the "how can we make Pog work?") question that I reckon the acceleration by Wout when Pog went for a pee was more a deliberate provocation than a cheeky stresser.
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I think WvA is struggling to ride in the bunch following his accident if I can be honest and I suspect that is part of his lazarus like tactics. He either wants to be on the front or at the back.
That's how I've read his Tour performance this year, anyway.
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I think you're reading too deeply into poor legs tbh (but at's your fanboi prerogative 😉). I think he's just not got form but knew yesterday was really important, and even an off-form Wout is one of the top off-road riders in the peloton. Add to that his ability to bury himself and then recover quickly and you have yesterday's performance in a nutshell
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Pog's not scared. Most definitely not scared. Especially of Vingegaard. Or anyone. But definitely not scared of Vingegaard. Not scared at all.
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I'm scared of Vingegaard, especially as he does look like a cross between a (whiter) Michael Jackson and the Demon Spawn Child from Ash vs Evil Dead.
Sometimes. Maybe. Possibly.
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He's there to get some miles in before the Olympics, same as MvdP. If he can contribute some in the mountains, that will be a bonus.
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
Boom Bardet deserves a shout-out
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In defence of Madiot, I was always taught not to get upset about things I can't control. In respect of the things he can control, the GC was indeed over within 4 days.
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Cake is just weakness entering the body3 -
Bloody hell, can't believe I forgot that 😳
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One thing this year is that despite the ridiculously tough opening stage, the GC battle hasn't overshadowed everything else like it seemed to last year. Loads of interesting stories kicking around, and some really intriguing races within races. Girmay suddenly mounting a serious attempt at holding the green jersey is kind of fun, not least because even inrng barely mentioned him in advance - and even then only to write him off.
Cavendish winning early has kind of removed the tension there, which is lovely and all but seems really weirdly out of kilter with everything that's previously happened whilst chasing win 35. It seemed destined to be the last possible stage...
(edited to add that the number of French successes has been pretty cool too - I get the feeling it's helped the general vibe around the race)
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Indeed.
Let's lessen our talking about Vin, he is profoundly boring
Pog has won 4 times as many stages in the tdf (think about that)
Pog and Remco deserve our attention for their combative spirit
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Must. Not. Bite..... Must. Not. BIte......
GRANON 2022!
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