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wednesday exploiting and analysing

'ning

let it be dry, ride, cafe, wfh, lunch, vuelta, there may be a webex in there somewhere
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
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Posts

  • lincolndavelincolndave Posts: 9,441
    Morning, dry ,gusty,cold, dog walked, just drinking my tea busy day with an early start .
    Have a good day
  • oxomanoxoman Posts: 9,723
    Morning, Same old same old, only thing different dog is off for a few days to doggy hotel whilst doing some painting. Damp and dreary outside.
    Too many bikes according to Mrs O.
  • CargobikeCargobike Posts: 748
    Ayup!
    Feel like a weight has been lifted off my shoulders this morning, thank god.
    Got some bike parts to post out first thing, following a successful ebay clearout, then cook at my place and clean at hers, looks like a bomb has gone off. Bit of WFW this afternoon once I've drppoed OH at work, then stay late before collecting her once more at midnight, two shifts out of three done. Going to try and get a ride in sometime this afternoon, test out the new mudguards and ease my legs back into action. Researching and ordering a new winter jacket should fill out the rest of the day.
    Got to make the most of everything this week, from next week the Xmas rush really starts.
  • thistle_thistle_ Posts: 5,596
    'Ning
    Loveley here at the moment, in a cool, damp autumn way.
    Went out for a stroll to see what CRT have been wasting money on recently.

    No plans for the rest of the day. Might try a bike ride, indoors or outdoors depending on what the weather's doing.
  • tlw1tlw1 Posts: 20,067
    Run, wood processing, then dads taxi and probably pub stuff
  • veronese68veronese68 Posts: 24,669 Lives Here
    Morning folks,
    Quite bright outside at the moment, I'm sure that will change this afternoon as I'm off. I thought i was just clearing a load of old sh!t out of the back of the old dear's garden but apparently I'm 'wood processing'. Or was that a euphemism and TLW is actually going for a walk?
    Does anyone want a van load of old picture frame mouldings some of which may be quite rotten?
  • thistle_thistle_ Posts: 5,596

    The day Microsoft releases new patches (updates, fixes) for Windows and Microsoft applications. Also called "Black Tuesday,"

    Who the farq are you?
  • pinnopinno Posts: 42,747
    Cargobike said:

    Researching and ordering a new winter jacket should fill out the rest of the day.

    DHB full winter jacket for cool days - versatile, great VFM and a full on Castelli Espresso (had the Alpha, couldn't get on with it) for the cold and potentially windy days?

    Quiet and dry here! Unlike Monday wind and lots of rain, yesterday just rain and tomorrow even more rain.

    Much chores done. Now it's stopped raining, I can go pedal.

    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 46,810
    edited October 2020
    I thought we hadn't seen many spammers recently...

    WFH after dropping juniors/Strifeys car off for its MOT and service at the local Halfrauds. I probably should have worn a balaclava so nobody saw me getting out of a baby blue coloured 1l Polo, though it was somehow nice to be able to put pedal to the metal and still drive sensibly :smile:

    At least they haven't called me which yet so there's nothing expensive so far. Onwards to food and tax mitigation.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • WheelspinnerWheelspinner Posts: 5,433
    Tip run, which qualifies as an outing these days. New brake blocks arrived, and despite what Shimano says on the packet they don't "fit" my brakes. Grrr.

    Miscellaneous other jobs done. No bike ride today though.

    Visit to skin specialist tomorrow for check-over. Yippee.



    Open O-1.0 Open One+ BMC TE29 Titus Racer X Ti Giant MCM One Cannondale Prophet Lefty Cannondale Super V SL Cove Handjob Cervelo RS
  • Site meeting this morning, pottering around the desktop this afternoon accompanied by a chicken salad. Some minor DIYing later so that the decorator can carry on means no gym or turbo.
    Advocate of disc brakes.
  • pinnopinno Posts: 42,747
    Stevo_666 said:


    At least they haven't called me which yet so there's nothing expensive so far. Onwards to food and tax mitigation.

    Maybe they're afraid to call you.

    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 46,810
    pinno said:

    Stevo_666 said:


    At least they haven't called me which yet so there's nothing expensive so far. Onwards to food and tax mitigation.

    Maybe they're afraid to call you.

    Yep, I'm obviously a gangster as I rocked up in a baby blue Polo this morning :smile: Actually they just called and said I needed new spark plugs.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • thistle_thistle_ Posts: 5,596
    Stevo_666 said:

    At least they haven't called me which yet so there's nothing expensive so far.

    Usually around here I hear nothing so ring up at 4pm to see if it's ready and I get the "Oh yeah it needs this and that, if you leave it with us we can do it tomorrow" :neutral:

    I've ended up sounding most of the day trying to find out why turning my drivetrain feels so draggy:
    Chain is slightly stretched, rear mech was slightly out of index, bb30 has a slight amount of play in it, jockey wheels are a bit worn but nothing obvious. It's a bit quieter now but still not running smoothly :neutral:
  • Stevo_666 said:

    pinno said:

    Stevo_666 said:


    At least they haven't called me which yet so there's nothing expensive so far. Onwards to food and tax mitigation.

    Maybe they're afraid to call you.

    Yep, I'm obviously a gangster as I rocked up in a baby blue Polo this morning :smile: Actually they just called and said I needed new spark plugs.
    MOT and service > Strange, in that case they may ring again to say you need clean oil :/
  • thistle_thistle_ Posts: 5,596

    Stevo_666 said:

    pinno said:

    Stevo_666 said:


    At least they haven't called me which yet so there's nothing expensive so far. Onwards to food and tax mitigation.

    Maybe they're afraid to call you.

    Yep, I'm obviously a gangster as I rocked up in a baby blue Polo this morning :smile: Actually they just called and said I needed new spark plugs.
    MOT and service > Strange, in that case they may ring again to say you need clean oil :/
    Might be the cheapo value service option - check the gap and if it's fine stick it back in.
  • orraloonorraloon Posts: 8,976
    I'm farked. Combo of muscle fatigue after first in 6+ months gym sesh yesterday plus a long heavy lifting work day plus belting short sharp rain showers with occasional donner und blitzen. Upcoming: an evening on the sofa with a glass or several and catch up on how badly went my prediction for today's Vuelta stage, if I can this time avoid falling asleep with 10km to go.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 46,810

    Stevo_666 said:

    pinno said:

    Stevo_666 said:


    At least they haven't called me which yet so there's nothing expensive so far. Onwards to food and tax mitigation.

    Maybe they're afraid to call you.

    Yep, I'm obviously a gangster as I rocked up in a baby blue Polo this morning :smile: Actually they just called and said I needed new spark plugs.
    MOT and service > Strange, in that case they may ring again to say you need clean oil :/
    Might be the cheapo value service option - check the gap and if it's fine stick it back in.
    He did show me the ones they removed - very likely the originals from new and in a bit of a state.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • orraloonorraloon Posts: 8,976
    Hey @Cargobike was thinking about your posts while on my long hard work day. I might have got the wrong end of the stick but is your business in the cycle courier sector? Was thinking given this v strange 2020 and how shopping has moved online, is the situation that the likes of Amazon are undercutting the more local delivery services? I have a stepson who did a short, between 'proper' jobs stint doing Amazon deliveries so have some feedback from that perspective. Are local businesses who might use local delivery services getting outgunned?
  • thistle_thistle_ Posts: 5,596
    edited October 2020
    orraloon said:

    Are local businesses who might use local delivery services getting outgunned?

    My turbo came from a local bike shop and it arrived within 2 days of ordering*, I ordered it at 6pm so it's more like 1 day.
    That was better than Amazon, because they didn't have any.

    * Local covid rules meant I couldn't go and pick it up even though it was only 25 miles away.
  • CargobikeCargobike Posts: 748
    edited October 2020
    pinno said:

    Cargobike said:

    Researching and ordering a new winter jacket should fill out the rest of the day.

    DHB full winter jacket for cool days - versatile, great VFM and a full on Castelli Espresso (had the Alpha, couldn't get on with it) for the cold and potentially windy days?

    Quiet and dry here! Unlike Monday wind and lots of rain, yesterday just rain and tomorrow even more rain.

    Much chores done. Now it's stopped raining, I can go pedal.

    Thanks for the tip @pinno

    DHB looks like a winner if I can find one in my size.

    As for Castelli, who are you trying to kid, you know I'm not built for Italian fashionwear :lol:
  • CargobikeCargobike Posts: 748
    orraloon said:

    Hey @Cargobike was thinking about your posts while on my long hard work day. I might have got the wrong end of the stick but is your business in the cycle courier sector? Was thinking given this v strange 2020 and how shopping has moved online, is the situation that the likes of Amazon are undercutting the more local delivery services? I have a stepson who did a short, between 'proper' jobs stint doing Amazon deliveries so have some feedback from that perspective. Are local businesses who might use local delivery services getting outgunned?

    Yes, we were predominantly a cycle courier service when we first started out, but have moved into van based deliveries too. I actually looked into being a delivery partner for Amazon at the start of the lockdown in the spring. The rates they pay their partners are woeful.

    Like most national carriers they sub-contract the last mile deliveries to subbies who provide as a minimum a van and drive it themselves, or a fleet of vans and employ drivers to do the work for them.

    If you are an owner driver they (national carriers) have you by the balls and can dictate everything from your rates paid, to what time you can collect your parcels, to what time you finish for the day, holiday entitlement etc.

    If you provide fleet services you take on all the additional costs of employing staff that the national carriers won't comprehend doing as it eats into the meagre profit margins.

    Amazon wanted me to provide a minimum of 6 vans to start, but with the potential to grow to a fleet of 50 vans, yet predicted that profits would be in the ballpark of £150k/annum if we operated at capacity with the biggest fleet, so approx £3k per van/year. That's not even worth opening your eyes for, let alone getting out of bed and doing the graft money, while leasing your van from their preferred source so that they get kick-backs.

    As for winners and losers as the economy moves ever further online, anybody who isn't an e-tailer already has little chance of getting into the market now unless they have large amounts of financial backing and are happy to make significant losses over the first 3 years. Amazon and their ilk, including Wiggle/CRC in the niche of cycling are wiping the floor with the range of goods they can sell, whereas bricks and mortar shops with a bolt-on e-tail service are hamstruck with fixed costs that their competitors don't have. Add in the marketing and data analytic power that the large e-tailers have and most bricks and mortar stores won't see out the pandemic and ensuing recession, unless there is government legislation to re-balance the books.

    Going forwards, the biggest problems facing the industry is the monopolisation of goods sold and delivered, by fewer and fewer companies. Amazon have the nation by the balls. Whether you are a small niche seller of goods, or a multi-national you need to be on Amazon as that is the first place the consumer looks these days, before scouring the internet for stand alone individual offers. Like WFH is quickly becoming the norm for 50% of the working population, so is the dominance of Amazon and once that buying mentality becomes ingrained it will be very difficult to change to something new.

    As for couriers themselves and the Amazon effect, the big problem is that Amazon dictate the market and everyone else follows. So, if Amazon are paying squat-diddly per delivery, then so do DHL, TNT, DPD etc as it is now the biggest sales tool for getting the work. Nobody, including the consumer wants to pay for delivery, or as little as possible anyway, so that all the carriers from the big multi-nationals through to the owner drivers are fighting over ever smaller returns. That is why I focus most of my deliveries on cargo-bikes as I can put a bike on the road for as little as 25% of the ost of putting a van on the road, while being able to move approx 60% of all the goods that need moving. Obviously cargo-bikes have limitations, but working with the likes of DHL they can send us parcels specifically to our requirements in relation to size and weight making us, for now, a far more viable solution than van based competitors. Add in the "greener" credentials, ease of parking, smaller, localised hubs actually in communities rather than 10 miles outside of cities and there is a workable proposition at the moment.

    Hopefully, I'll be out of this game in 5 years, I've almost had my bellyfull of the industry now, but it isn't for the faint hearted and is serious graft. From next week we'll be ramping up for Xmas and operating 6-7 days a week, butany additional profit is wiped out by having to take on more staff without the knowledge to get the job done efficiently. You're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

    Apologies for the long reply and I hope it covers the answers your questions asked. The industry is in such a state of flux that half of what I've posted probably won't be relevant in a years time :lol:
  • oxomanoxoman Posts: 9,723
    Just to add insult to injury the big A intends to pretty much double its warehousing in UK over the next yr or so and do 1hr delivery if you pay for prime. Europe will follow the same pattern.
    Too many bikes according to Mrs O.
  • orraloonorraloon Posts: 8,976
    Interesting, CB.
  • pinnopinno Posts: 42,747
    I can honestly say I haven't bought anything on Amazon for about 3 years. My OH does and it's funny how she has many more delivery problems than I do.
    They're great for Googling car parts - first on the list, sponsored obviously but 9 times out of 10 you click on the link and it's out of stock.

    Personally, I think that there is no such thing as 'free delivery' and there should be a mandatory (and workable) delivery fee.

    Google and Amazon are amassing so much data about us and our spending habits that it makes me very wary of their power.

    I know all the local DPD drivers by name locally and they have no time for a chat and drive like nutters. One of them runs his DPD service as a franchise and he delivers on a Sunday. Nice guy but his margins are so tight.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • oxomanoxoman Posts: 9,723
    Pinno local lad up the road has ditched his Hermes contract as rates got so low. He couldn't compete against people doing it for next to nothing. A big wagon would turn up and 3 of them would sort out the load between 3 transits and be out all day. He only ever got a Sunday off and spent most of that servicing his van. One of the few that wouldn't stash in a dustbin on dustbin day.
    Too many bikes according to Mrs O.
  • CargobikeCargobike Posts: 748
    orraloon said:

    Interesting, CB.

    Just to add to that, have you seen the price of electric vans?
    Plus the weight of the batteries lowers the payload.

    Amazon have ordered 100,000 electric vans for the USA market from a company that doesn't even have a vehicle in production yet (Rivian) having invested in them, while giving the whle of Europe 500 electric vans. S*d the environment, just gives us your money.

    Call me cynical, but.....
  • thistle_thistle_ Posts: 5,596
    pinno said:

    Personally, I think that there is no such thing as 'free delivery' and there should be a mandatory (and workable) delivery fee.

    The Mrs has Prime for watching box sets all day every day, but I can use the free delivery being in the same house.
    You pay for the delivery through your Prime subscription, but often the item with the free Prime delivery is more expensive than a non Prime version so it's like they're charging you twice for delivery :neutral:
    I'm not that keen on shopping from Amazon any more, it's flooded with multiple listings of the same unbranded censored with fake reviews, like eBay.
  • thistle_thistle_ Posts: 5,596
    Cargobike said:

    Amazon have ordered 100,000 electric vans for the USA market from a company that doesn't even have a vehicle in production yet (Rivian)

    Is the Rivian 4x4 in production? I remember seeing it on YouTube at a car show ages ago (either Johnny Smith or Kryten)

  • CargobikeCargobike Posts: 748

    Cargobike said:

    Amazon have ordered 100,000 electric vans for the USA market from a company that doesn't even have a vehicle in production yet (Rivian)

    Is the Rivian 4x4 in production? I remember seeing it on YouTube at a car show ages ago (either Johnny Smith or Kryten)

    As of now, not yet, only working prototypes.

    Yes, it was heavily reviewed by Fully Charged fronted by Robert Llewellyn and at the time Johnny Smith.
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