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How many yellow jerseys can Froome go on to win?

robnewcastlerobnewcastle Posts: 214
edited July 2015 in Pro race
Was just giving this some thought yesterday. He's clearly one of the best climbers around, has proved a load of people wrong in terms of descending ability and riding cobbles and is right up there with his TTing. He also seems to be developing more leadership qualities and clearly showed a steely resolve in the face of all the accusations off the bike.

Competition wise, Quintana will only get stronger (a shoe in for a tour win eventually), Nibali ever present, Contador likely has one year left to win the tour (and will likely be very strong next year), Aru will only get better.

I guess Froome has what, three years left in peak condition, maybe 4 at an absolute push? Could see him aiming for a Giro towards the end of his career.
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  • philbar72philbar72 Posts: 2,228
    four in total. +1 giro and 1 vuelta.
  • disgruntledgoatdisgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    8 years left at the peak according to that nonsense in the Telegraph yesterday!
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • markhewitt1978markhewitt1978 Posts: 7,614
    I think the question is less about if Froome can improve but can he hold off Quintana?
  • robnewcastlerobnewcastle Posts: 214
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666672#p19666672]disgruntledgoat[/url] wrote:
    8 years left at the peak according to that nonsense in the Telegraph yesterday!

    Yeah utter nonsense
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 51,877 Lives Here
    Mainly depends on the Tour routes.

    Put in 100km TTing and he'll monster Quintana.
    _
  • phreakphreak Posts: 2,166
    He's got a good chance, but as we've seen before, staying upright during the first week is often a big challenge. We've seen previously that Froome beats Quintana in the mountains as often as Quintana beats him, so I'd say they're pretty even on the steep stuff, but Froome has his number in the time trials.

    You'd imagine the Sky team will remain very strong for a while so he's also likely to get plenty of support. You'd imagine he has another couple in him but I don't know whether he'll get to five.

    We've seen with Cavendish that it doesn't take much of a drop to be off the pace.
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  • slim_boy_fatslim_boy_fat Posts: 1,808
    It will be interesting to see in this new era of cycling how easy it is to back up a tour win the following year. We've seen some evidence that a win one year means a potential struggle the next. That along with some serious competition should hopefully mean GT's are shared around rather dominated going forward.
  • timoid.timoid. Posts: 3,133
    He will be favourite for the next two, but who can predict beyond that?

    Will he be interested in winning the Giro? More likely he might bag a Vuelta.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • Richmond Racer 2Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666794#p19666794]Timoid.[/url] wrote:
    He will be favourite for the next two, but who can predict beyond that?

    Will he be interested in winning the Giro? More likely he might bag a Vuelta.


    Giro prone to bad weather - and he no likey. Much happier in sunny, warm conditions
  • robnewcastlerobnewcastle Posts: 214
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666797#p19666797]Richmond Racer 2[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666794#p19666794]Timoid.[/url] wrote:
    He will be favourite for the next two, but who can predict beyond that?

    Will he be interested in winning the Giro? More likely he might bag a Vuelta.


    Giro prone to bad weather - and he no likey. Much happier in sunny, warm conditions

    I think he'll give the Giro & Vuelta a go one year. Plenty rest in between
  • Richmond Racer 2Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666807#p19666807]RobNewcastle[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666797#p19666797]Richmond Racer 2[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666794#p19666794]Timoid.[/url] wrote:
    He will be favourite for the next two, but who can predict beyond that?

    Will he be interested in winning the Giro? More likely he might bag a Vuelta.


    Giro prone to bad weather - and he no likey. Much happier in sunny, warm conditions

    I think he'll give the Giro & Vuelta a go one year. Plenty rest in between



    Also depends what Brailsford wants to do with the team. He loves, just loves, having an environment in which he has riders competing with each other for the top spots. Believes it eliminates complacency and raises individiuals' performances. Its what he did over and over again on the track, and its what he did with Wiggins and Froome. He wants to have at least one rider who will be able to challenge Froome for top spot on the team. And logic says that at some point, that will happen.
  • adr82adr82 Posts: 4,002
    I think he'll get at least one and possibly two more Tours, but not any more than that. Probably a Vuelta too at some point. If he was 4 or 5 years younger you'd bet on him doing more, but even then there are plenty of examples of young riders who burst onto the scene and seem capable of dominating GTs for years, but then have injuries or other problems that interrupt their careers.
  • EnacheVEnacheV Posts: 235
    Froome has few years riding GT's at top, relatively late starter. He can go in to his 40's if he sticks to 1 GT per year
  • Richmond Racer 2Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19667014#p19667014]EnacheV[/url] wrote:
    Froome has few years riding GT's at top, relatively late starter. He can go in to his 40's if he sticks to 1 GT per year



    I think you may be confusing him with Little Jack Horner
  • milton50milton50 Posts: 3,892
    I'm assuming that the organisers will now have at least 2 or 3 years of at least one TT in the route. If they do then it's hard to see Quintana beating him assuming no crashes/illnesses etc. I think Contador will be his biggest rival next year.

    But the biggest obstacle is his body. He so regularly picks up a bug, a cold, a niggling injury, or just generally seems to fatigue quicker than some of the others. So assuming he has 3 years left at this level I wouldn't be surprised to see him only win 1 more.

    I think he feels like he has unfinished business at the Vuelta so I wouldn't be surprised to see him finally get a win there.
  • milton50milton50 Posts: 3,892
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19667014#p19667014]EnacheV[/url] wrote:
    Froome has few years riding GT's at top, relatively late starter. He can go in to his 40's if he sticks to 1 GT per year

    Into his 40s? What?
  • joelsimjoelsim Posts: 7,552
    It wouldn't surprise me if next year's parcours didn't have a long ITT or TTT. Think Bardet, Pinot, Vuillermoz, Quintana.
  • adr82adr82 Posts: 4,002
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19667040#p19667040]Joelsim[/url] wrote:
    It wouldn't surprise me if next year's parcours didn't have a long ITT or TTT. Think Bardet, Pinot, Vuillermoz, Quintana.
    They might well choose to do that, but Froome's already shown this year he's willing to sacrifice TT performance to improve his climbing if the race demands it, and he's not exactly a bad climber to begin with! His bigger problem is probably just going to be getting himself through 3 weeks without catching something, as he apparently did during the last few days this year. The distribution of the mountain stages in the race is also going to matter - if the last MTF is a few days before Paris it's going to be a bit of a disadvantage for anyone who tends to be stronger into the 3rd week.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 6,252
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666797#p19666797]Richmond Racer 2[/url] wrote:
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19666794#p19666794]Timoid.[/url] wrote:
    He will be favourite for the next two, but who can predict beyond that?

    Will he be interested in winning the Giro? More likely he might bag a Vuelta.


    Giro prone to bad weather - and he no likey. Much happier in sunny, warm conditions

    Good point, that and the Giro coming before the Tour probably means we wont see him attempt it unless maybe they design a parcours deliberately to tempt him.

    As for the original question, if I had to put a bet on I'd say one more Tour win simply because in the next three years the law of averages might have him being beaten by Quintana once, winning once and maybe losing out through illness/bad luck once. If things went his way though he might reach the magic 5 wins, if he can maintain his form he's clearly going to be amongst the favourites for a number of years.

    I wouldn't write Quintana off quite so readily on the strength of his TT either, he's put in some good ones at times and while he probably would concede time maybe not a huge amount, less than he conceded in week 1 this year.
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  • mike6mike6 Posts: 1,199
    Possibly one more, If next years has a decent amount on TTing. Quintana is still developing so he will get stronger whereas Froome is at his peak so its only a question of time before Quintana wins.

    So one more I think, next years parcourse being suitable, then he should try the Giro Vuelta double. They are far enough apart for a double peak training/competing year.
  • iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,782
    I don't know - Couple more maybe. Sky have figured out the TdF pretty well, so if he arrives with form it'll be hard to beat him

    I know he's finished 2nd twice now, but I'm still not convinced Quintana is going to step up to the top for a couple more years. He's also prone to getting ill in the GT's.
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • mididoctorsmididoctors Posts: 8,630
    he looked pretty spent.... I think one more.
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • The_BoyThe_Boy Posts: 3,099
    At least one, possibly 3+.
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  • andypandyp Posts: 8,344
    Who knows? What matters most is to retain the hunger and drive that allows him to make the sacrifices necessary to win the Tour. If that goes, his GT winning days will be over.
  • ProssPross Posts: 24,972
    Recent history has suggested winning consecutive Tours is difficult. I think Froome has the mental strength to keep going for them but that might change with a young family. I think he'll win another and possibly a fourth. A lot will depend on the route though and possibly team politics at some point.
  • frenchfighterfrenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Hopefully no more. He and Sky are killing the TdF. No real cycling fans want to see corporate and efficient bs brought into this sport. Especially if the perps are styless and posh.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • takethehighroadtakethehighroad Posts: 5,686
    No one's won consecutive Tours since Big Mig.

    They've 'won' them of course (much like Big Mig?)
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  • durhamwaspdurhamwasp Posts: 1,235
    One more, maybes two. Quintana is his only real threat for the next 3 years I would say, Contador and Nibali are not the same threat any more, especially in the Tour (as appose to their home races)
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  • ocdupalaisocdupalais Posts: 3,773
    frenchfighter wrote:
    Hopefully no more. He and Sky are killing the TdF. No real cycling fans want to see corporate and efficient bs brought into this sport. Especially if the perps are styless and posh.

    Nothing is killing the TdF.
    Sky were on their last legs by the time they rolled into Paris - like a car that's been showing the fuel light for the last 40km, then turns into a clown car and cuts out as it rolls onto the garage forecourt...doors falling off and steam pouring out the radiator.
    They imploded in 2013, too, but 6 stages earlier.

    They might be "corporate" - but so is Movistar, Astana and FDJ. Even bloody MTN Qhubeka are "corporate" in their structure.
    This isn't a dominant team: it's the one that played the best hand this year (they threw a sh!t hand in 2011 and 2014) and got away with it.

    As to "efficient", well that's Contador's pedaling style all over - along with champions like Anquetil, Roche, Pantani, Coppi and Indurain - all great "Stylists". Other than that, you've got the "Brutalists" - Hinault, Bartali, Merckx, Armstrong, Fignon, Lemond.... and now Froome. Some people prefer poodles, some prefer Rottweilers - each to their own.

    I reckon he's got another Tour win and a Vuelta in him.
  • disgruntledgoatdisgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    [url=http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=19667540#p19667540]frenchfighter[/url] wrote:
    Hopefully no more. He and Sky are killing the TdF. No real cycling fans want to see corporate and efficient bs brought into this sport. Especially if the perps are styless and posh.

    I think they'll be happy in the "killing the Tour" pile with Merckx and Indurain
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
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