Thursday big event guessing game

RichN95.
RichN95. Posts: 27,147
edited September 2014 in Pro race
Two big events on Thursday. Jens v Sosenka and No v Yes.

Both Jens and No are tipped to get just over 50 (km or %). But who will go higher?

By all means have a guess at the actual numbers, but if you want a political row there's the Cake Stop for that
Twitter: @RichN95

Comments

  • The_Boy
    The_Boy Posts: 3,099
    Unless they pollsters have it wildly wrong (and this is an outside possibility due to the number of first time voters), the Nos have it by 3.
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  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,147
    For record I have already predicted 50.903 km for Jens. I'll say 52.6% for No.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • r0bh
    r0bh Posts: 2,192
    52% No
    51k Jens
  • mfin
    mfin Posts: 6,729
    50.217km
    54.2% No
  • napoleond
    napoleond Posts: 5,992
    You missed 'Number of Hrs for iOS8 to download'
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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,452
    Gone for Jens. 49.9% no, 50.705 Jens.
  • salsiccia1
    salsiccia1 Posts: 3,725
    What a poll. Rich, you are a genius 8)

    Jens 50.850km
    No 53.2%
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    The_Boy wrote:
    Unless they pollsters have it wildly wrong (and this is an outside possibility due to the number of first time voters), the Nos have it by 3.

    3% is the margin of error in those polls though, so that's neck and neck. Interestingly 97% of eligible voters have registered and those most likely to vote Yes are over 35 and under 65, which is not the way I'd have picked it at all. On the other hand, polling isn't as reliable in this instance as usual, because the polling companies have never done an Indyref before, they have no models to use to correct the data (or if theydo, they've no idea if they work). Warming to my theme... the SNP has it's polling people poll in an odd way where they ask respondents to vote on how likely they are to vote Yes and score it 1-10. Anything over a 5 they put as Yes.

    No 58%
    Jens 50.15km
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

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  • mechanism
    mechanism Posts: 891
    Following the he fundamental interconnectedness of all things idea they have to add up to 100 so 49.699km and 50.301% "no".
  • the article don
    the article don Posts: 578
    Great idea for a thread.

    I am going to say Jensie will fail and no will succeed so 49.96 and 54.27 respectively
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  • mr_poll
    mr_poll Posts: 1,547
    Going to go with Jensie on this one, just:

    Jens - 51.05km

    No - 50.8%
  • Anonymous
    Anonymous Posts: 79,667
    Jens 51.1

    No 42.3
  • chrisday
    chrisday Posts: 300
    Jens 50.9

    No 49.8

    And Alec Salmond for GC please
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  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Nice one this
    Jens 49.9
    No 54.0
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    Merckx nabbed my guess too. Damn him.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • mfin
    mfin Posts: 6,729
    Salsiccia1 wrote:
    What a poll. Rich, you are a genius 8)

    Jens 50.850km
    No 53.2%

    Yeah, well done Rich, a proper relaxed thread.

    Jens about to get on the bike now :)
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,147
    The average of the guesses is 50.653 km. Let's see how well the wisdom of crowds theory works
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • mfin
    mfin Posts: 6,729
    51.115km... so who was closest?
  • mfin
    mfin Posts: 6,729
    sjmclean 15 metres out
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,147
    sjmclean wrote:
    Jens 51.1

    No 42.3
    This was the closest prediction(for the cycling at least). The other prediction seems beyond even Alex Salmond's imagination.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • r0bh
    r0bh Posts: 2,192
    mfin wrote:
    51.115km... so who was closest?

    sjmclean with 51.1 I think. Don't fancy his chances on the accumulator though!
  • Anonymous
    Anonymous Posts: 79,667
    Nice to have the first one up.

    I'll get the second tomorrow morning. Saw a poll which had it at 56% for Yes. Scotland is buzzing.
  • mr_poll
    mr_poll Posts: 1,547
    65 metres out - damn you sjmclean! However fancy my chances against you on the Scotland question.
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,001
    Mechanism wrote:
    Following the he fundamental interconnectedness of all things idea they have to add up to 100

    This doesn't bode well for the Nos then.
  • mfin
    mfin Posts: 6,729
    YES 1,617,989 44.696878 %
    NO 2,001,926 55.303122 %
    TOTAL 3,619,915

    So, it is 55.3% NO
  • mfin
    mfin Posts: 6,729
    The article don was closest with 54.27%?
  • the article don
    the article don Posts: 578
    what an honour

    I am pleased Jens got it and pleased Scotland didn't!!
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    Specialized Tricross Sport
    My Dad's old racer
    Trek Marlin 29er 2012

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