Weather "Further Ahead"
meanredspider
Posts: 12,550
Does anybody else find the BBC website's "Further Ahead" addition to the weather completely useless?
Take the forecast for next Friday (8th Feb)
The high might be 10C
or it might be 1C
The low might be 8C
or it might be -4C
The wind, however, will be a 23mph westerly (really?)
I know forecasting weather ahead of time is difficult but does anybody find the information above even slightly useful?
Take the forecast for next Friday (8th Feb)
The high might be 10C
or it might be 1C
The low might be 8C
or it might be -4C
The wind, however, will be a 23mph westerly (really?)
I know forecasting weather ahead of time is difficult but does anybody find the information above even slightly useful?
ROAD < Scott Foil HMX Di2, Volagi Liscio Di2, Jamis Renegade Elite Di2, Cube Reaction Race > ROUGH
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All the weather (have a look at the key) is the same colour on top of that miserable grey sludge for land.
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The version of that app I have on my nexus 7 has wind data speed, gust and direction, it's been accurate so far.
http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/London/
Main failure in the Met Office is how it provides the forecasst - but ultimately, it is the forecast itself that counts rather than its presentation.
You need to look at them on a regular basis. Is that variance 10 days ahead normally that wide? Narrower? Broader? 10 days away uncertainty will be high. There is a lot going on at the moment so if you expect a front to go through next Thursday night, but instead it goes through a day later, the basic facts might be absolutely correct but the timings way out. You can make a much better forecast of your commute time into Inverness than you can of another commute all the way to London. Bottom line is that the current 3 day forecasts are more accurate than the 1 day forecasts of the 1970s. I can pretty much rely on a 3 day forecast. 5 days gives me a feel for what might happen. I wouldn't even look at a 10 day forecast but there'll still be useful info in there - you just have to be realistic about the variance in the forecast which is never adequately provided (basically because the general public generally isn't smart enough to understand it).
I do - and they are normally that rubbish.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting them to be more "accurate" or "precise" - I'm just questioning the point of the BBC sharing them at all. I could have forecast something along the lines of "The weather won't be drastically different from what it normally is for this time of year" which is what this "Further Ahead" forecast is. What I do find absurd is the wind prediction. I tend to pay quite a bit of attention to the wind because it's windy up here. Forecasts of the wind speed, in particular, are rarely right for two days out let alone 10.
If the BBC gave (and explained) likelihoods, then people might better understand what they are told.
All I really want is enough indication of what clothes to wear (carry) for the commute home and maybe a pointer on which will be the crappier days in the week so, if I need to take the car one day, I can pick the worst weather.
Mark Twain
Rule #9 // If you are out riding in bad weather, it means you are a badass. Period.
Rule #12 // The correct number of bikes to own is n+1.
Rule #42 // A bike race shall never be preceded with a swim and/or followed by a run.
I suspect being on the lee of the Pennines helps for a more accurate forecast but I can't remember when the standard 3 day Met Office forecast failed me in this respect. But it does help if you can read between the lines a bit.
In most situations I can actually reasonably well get a handle on the day's weather myself. It helps that 90% of the time we just get the West coast's weather a bit later than them.
What's harder is when it's 8C and blowing a gale outside and the forecast says by morning commute it will be fog and freezing
i'm loving the odd crosswind i've had from these gales this week..
Proper pita
Rule #9 // If you are out riding in bad weather, it means you are a badass. Period.
Rule #12 // The correct number of bikes to own is n+1.
Rule #42 // A bike race shall never be preceded with a swim and/or followed by a run.
Has nobody posted the weather forecasting stone yet? There's a very good demonstration of why long range forecasts are just a guess. People like the Met Office run lots of simulations of the weather, each with fractionally different inputs. Over about three days, the simulations will all give roughly the same output. As you stretch that to five days, they start to diverge, and after ten days, there's almost no discernable pattern to the results. Chaos, innit.
http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/ClimateChanging/ClimateScienceInfoZone/ExploringEarthsclimate/1point2/1point2point1.aspx
Pinnacle Monzonite
Liberal metropolitan, remoaner, traitor, "sympathiser", etc.
Yup - that's really my point: why do the BBC bother publishing it?
Really? I'm surprised. Even I've only once or twice brought a spare baselayer of different thickness or, alternatively, a lighter jersey to give me the odd option (usually due to it being warmer than expected). Unless the weather is planning to cane it down in the morning, the only "waterproof" layer I have is a thin windproof packable. As long as I don't get drowned in the morning, an hour isn't enough to really soak through the layer underneath. And for the homebound commute, I don't have to worry about putting wet kit on later so it doesn't really matter if it rains heavily.
Because they are stupid? Because they underestimate the stupidity of their audience? Who knows. Thing is though, the long range forecasts can work - if the weather is stable you can quite easily point to it remaining the same for ten days. And you can probably point some time ahead to when it will break down. But then when it is like it is now, it's anyones guess. What they should do is publish forecasts to varied distances ahead proportionate to confidence. But that would confuse the public.
I hear what you say about the great British public, Rolf F. That said, part of the charm of the UK is the unpredictability of our weather because there's so many variables.
The easy solution is that I'll just stop looking
But all you're really doing is saying that it will revert to what it normally is at that time of year.
It might turn out like that, it might not (with various probabilities).
Is the met adding anything? Is there any point in anyone reporting it?
How boring would it be if it was sunny every day!
Same here, except my only jacket is an Altura Night Vision which is a sweat bath at anything above freezing, so most of the time, I just get wet. ITB's problem is the split commute with 40 minutes of hanging around on a train in potentially sopping wet/sweaty kit, before a short ride across town, which isn't enough to warm up/dry out.
Pinnacle Monzonite
Liberal metropolitan, remoaner, traitor, "sympathiser", etc.