Tour de France bets

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  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    Just had my one and only flutter of this year's Tour. JC Peraud to finish top 6 overall at 130/1. It's unlikely, but this year he's been 7th in the Dauphiné, 6th in the Crit Int and 6th in Paris-Nice, and he's a good TTer. His 3-week form is... er... well... we'll see.

    Only had £3 on it though, so clearly I'm a mug and not a real punter.
  • Anonymous
    Anonymous Posts: 79,667
    Rule74Please wrote:
    If you've ever been to a racetrack you will know the bookies turn up in the mercs Rolls Royces and Jags and the punters arrive in the fords and other cheap beaten up cars.

    Betting is for mugs

    Ps things are odds on as they are likely to win. When a 100/1 shot comes in the bookies make a fortune

    What about betfair, where punter bets punter? Are all on there in mercs etc, or are they all mugs?

    Things are not odds on as they are likely to win. They are odds on because the odds compiler believes they'll be the most popular selection. When pricing up a market, an odds compiler wants equal liabilities on all outcomes, hence why the biggest name football club is usually fave in league one, even if not the best squad.
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    Betting on Wiggins on Ladbrokes online has been suspended - maybe they have had a load of bets this morning and are worried in case he actually does win? (would have thought they could lay some of the risk with other betting companies?)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    I also like Boonen @ 50-1 each way for stage 1

    He's been dropped to 33/1 this morning on WIlliam Hill.
    _
  • cogidubnus
    cogidubnus Posts: 860
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    I also like Boonen @ 50-1 each way for stage 1

    He's been dropped to 33/1 this morning on WIlliam Hill.

    Lucky i got my bet in when I did. I think by process of osmosis from your posts I succumbed and backed him
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    I also like Boonen @ 50-1 each way for stage 1

    He's been dropped to 33/1 this morning on WIlliam Hill.

    Lucky i got my bet in when I did. I think by process of osmosis from your posts I succumbed and backed him

    I venture my chat about Boonen is not particularly objective...!
    _
  • cogidubnus
    cogidubnus Posts: 860
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    I also like Boonen @ 50-1 each way for stage 1

    He's been dropped to 33/1 this morning on WIlliam Hill.

    Lucky i got my bet in when I did. I think by process of osmosis from your posts I succumbed and backed him

    I venture my chat about Boonen is not particularly objective...!

    None of the bets I placed were for sensible reasons :)
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    RichN95 wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Evans vs S Sanchez for stage 1 on bet 365. Though does Rich class this as a flat stage? :)

    Not stage 1. I classed flat stages as stages where the GC riders wouldn't dream of doing anything other than sitting in the bunch.

    For these head-to-head bets an invaluable resource is www.cqranking.com which has a head-to-head feature where you can directly compare the results of two riders (over various terrain - flat, mountains, TT).

    PS Sanchez is very much like Evans, invariable near the front (Contador too)

    Pah, euskaltel positioning on a flat stage? We should have seen it coming.

    Tomorrow we have Evans v Kloden on bet365. Evans will be extra keen to be near the front i would have thought to make sure that he doesnt get caught in any small splits in the sprint.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,150
    Cumulonimbus wrote:

    Pah, euskaltel positioning on a flat stage? We should have seen it coming.

    Have a look at Sanchez's finishing positions in last year's Tour. Very rarely out of the top 40.
    http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/ri ... &current=0
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    RichN95 wrote:
    Cumulonimbus wrote:

    Pah, euskaltel positioning on a flat stage? We should have seen it coming.

    Have a look at Sanchez's finishing positions in last year's Tour. Very rarely out of the top 40.
    http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/ri ... &current=0

    Yeah true, i mostly meant it light-heartedly. Came third in the Fleche Walloon so can do the uphill stuff. I seem to remember he (or maybe Anton?) came from a long way back that day though.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    Odds on William Hill for GC are as follows before today's start:

    Outright
    6/5
    Andy Schleck
    11/8
    Alberto Contador
    8/1
    Cadel Evans
    20/1
    Bradley Wiggins
    22/1
    Robert Gesink
    33/1
    Ivan Basso
    40/1
    Frank Schleck
    40/1
    Jurgen Van Den Broeck
    50/1
    Andreas Kloden
    _
  • cogidubnus
    cogidubnus Posts: 860
    Its now almost worth putting money on Bertie
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Its now almost worth putting money on Bertie

    13/8 on betfair.

    Have had a sneaky couple of quid on Galizymanov and also on Swift to finish in the top 3 today at about 5-1 each. Not sure if they'll go with Swift or EBH as the main sprinter today.
  • fidbod
    fidbod Posts: 317
    I am quite please with the bets on got on before the start.

    Cadel for the overall at 29s and Pip for the green at 9s.

    Both outsiders but good value.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Cumulonimbus wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Its now almost worth putting money on Bertie

    13/8 on betfair.

    Have had a sneaky couple of quid on Galizymanov and also on Swift to finish in the top 3 today at about 5-1 each. Not sure if they'll go with Swift or EBH as the main sprinter today.

    I think they'll go for Swift on a flat stage like today, i also went for swift to go top 3 at 5-1 for my daily £5 donation to the bookies.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Not into betting, but curious question for those who are - what are the odds on JJ Rojas winning green in Paris?
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    FJS wrote:
    Not into betting, but curious question for those who are - what are the odds on JJ Rojas winning green in Paris?

    10/1 on Betfair. Can't see it myself...he's not got a team set up to help him.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    inkyfingers wrote:
    FJS wrote:
    Not into betting, but curious question for those who are - what are the odds on JJ Rojas winning green in Paris?

    10/1 on Betfair. Can't see it myself...he's not got a team set up to help him.
    Thanks. He's very good at finishing 5th or thereabouts in bunch sprints on flat stages, is one of the very best climbing of the sprinters, apparently he's interested (just got 3rd in the bunch intermediate), and his team has not a lot else to do...
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    FJS wrote:
    inkyfingers wrote:
    FJS wrote:
    Not into betting, but curious question for those who are - what are the odds on JJ Rojas winning green in Paris?

    10/1 on Betfair. Can't see it myself...he's not got a team set up to help him.
    Thanks. He's very good at finishing 5th or thereabouts in bunch sprints on flat stages, is one of the very best climbing of the sprinters, apparently he's interested (just got 3rd in the bunch intermediate), and his team has not a lot else to do...

    Yeah i thought that too. I think he'll finish high up overall in the points comp but cant see him getting the top 3 that often and someone who does (ie Cav, Petacchi, Gilbert) will probably beat him overall in the points. Worth a punt at those odds.
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    Cumulonimbus wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Its now almost worth putting money on Bertie

    13/8 on betfair.

    Have had a sneaky couple of quid on Galizymanov and also on Swift to finish in the top 3 today at about 5-1 each. Not sure if they'll go with Swift or EBH as the main sprinter today.

    Should have gone with my PTP tip :oops:
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Those odds on Rojas might have changed a bit now.... :wink:
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    FJS wrote:
    Those odds on Rojas might have changed a bit now.... :wink:

    Yup :D
  • ronron
    ronron Posts: 9
    4:1 on Horner...I'd put a g on it!
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,150
    FJS wrote:
    Those odds on Rojas might have changed a bit now.... :wink:

    The latest Betfair odds:

    Cavendish 3.7
    Rojas 4.5
    Farrar 5.6
    Gilbert 6.8
    Hushovd 6.8

    The rest 30+
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Cumulonimbus
    Cumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    Odds for the stage on betfair

    Cavendish 2.1
    Farrar 5.3
    Petacchi 18.0
    Rojas, Feillu 27.0
    The rest 40+


    Good value there if you dont think one of the top 2 will win.

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