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Tour de France bets

cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
edited July 2011 in Pro race
Anyone found any good odds they want to share with their fellow forum members? I'm trying not to let my heart rule my head by backing all my favourite riders.

I quite like these:

Team to win most stages- Omega Lotto @ 6-1

Gilbert to win Green: @ 13/2

Team overall: Movistar @ 40-1
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Posts

  • CumulonimbusCumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    Not sure what to make of betting on OPL at the moment. If any additional info does come out it may take a while and so the bets could already have been settled.

    Bets would be worth a punt if you fancy them. Wouldnt put much money on them. Think Movistar will really struggle to win the team comp but then they are a long price.

    I think Casar at 5-1 to win a stage looks one of the best bets. He has won stages in previous tours and there are some decent hilly/mountainous stages this year.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,210
    For team competition, there are worse bets than AG2R at 18/1
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • CrankbrotherCrankbrother Posts: 1,695
    I reckon the Movistar odds are very decent ... Them vs Radioshack for the team comp ... Unless Leopard start to show how it's done ... and Frank can stay upright ...
  • awallaceawallace Posts: 191
    I'm considering a flutter on the Tour this year. I may as well try and take advantage of sitting watching hours on end of it!

    I posted this in the cake stop earlier..

    What do you think of the following bets?

    over 161.5 riders to finish - 4/5 (Betfair) from what ive seen the last five tours have finished over this figure.

    Mark Cavendish to win 4.5 stages or more - 9/4 (Paddy Power)

    Mark Cavendish to win points classification - 7/5 (can be taken each way with Paddy Power)

    Robert Gesink to win the tour without Contador and A.Shleck - 11/2 but ill back each way so he needs to finsh top 5.

    Millionaire or stick to the day job?........
  • shinyhelmutshinyhelmut Posts: 1,349
    You'd have to bet an awful lot of money to make a million at those odds!
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    The Cav bet to win more than 4.5 stages is tempting
  • AnonymousAnonymous Posts: 79,692
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    The Cav bet to win more than 4.5 stages is tempting

    Not sure, given the parcours and Matt Goss being in the HTC line-up (I take that to mean they wont absolutely bust a gut to help Cav ghet up some of the ramps). But 9/4 is quite big...
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,210
    Choppered wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    The Cav bet to win more than 4.5 stages is tempting

    Not sure, given the parcours and Matt Goss being in the HTC line-up (I take that to mean they wont absolutely bust a gut to help Cav ghet up some of the ramps). But 9/4 is quite big...

    As far as I can see, there are 6 definite 'Cav' stages, without two possibles and one rank outsider (stage 1). Of those six, he'll likely screw up one of them, or surprised by Petacchi. That will mean he'll have to win all five of the others or pick up one of the 'possibles'. I don't doubt that he's comfortably ahead of all the other sprinters, but he still needs the opportunities and HTC aren't as keyed up for chasing breaks as in the last two years. 9/4 isn't bad, but I'm sure there's better value elsewhere.

    Talking of which... About three years to go, one of the bookies used to give head-to-head odds on stages. And a lot of the time the riders mentioned weren't really relevant to that stage (eg Contador v Sastre on a flat stage). Well some of these non-GC stages had Evans v Rider X. I bet quite bit on Evans every time. He's almost always up the front. He didn't win every time, but I made a tidy profit. If someone offers that again, go for it (only on flat stages, though)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    RichN95 wrote:
    Choppered wrote:
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    The Cav bet to win more than 4.5 stages is tempting

    Not sure, given the parcours and Matt Goss being in the HTC line-up (I take that to mean they wont absolutely bust a gut to help Cav ghet up some of the ramps). But 9/4 is quite big...

    As far as I can see, there are 6 definite 'Cav' stages, without two possibles and one rank outsider (stage 1). Of those six, he'll likely screw up one of them, or surprised by Petacchi. That will mean he'll have to win all five of the others or pick up one of the 'possibles'. I don't doubt that he's comfortably ahead of all the other sprinters, but he still needs the opportunities and HTC aren't as keyed up for chasing breaks as in the last two years. 9/4 isn't bad, but I'm sure there's better value elsewhere.

    Talking of which... About three years to go, one of the bookies used to give head-to-head odds on stages. And a lot of the time the riders mentioned weren't really relevant to that stage (eg Contador v Sastre on a flat stage). Well some of these non-GC stages had Evans v Rider X. I bet quite bit on Evans every time. He's almost always up the front. He didn't win every time, but I made a tidy profit. If someone offers that again, go for it (only on flat stages, though)

    Nice tip
  • smithy21smithy21 Posts: 2,204
    edited June 2011
    Thanks Rich- Bet365 usually offer head to head match ups on stages. I'd expect these to be up later tomorrow or early Saturday for stage 1.
  • awallaceawallace Posts: 191
    Betfair are offering head to heads

    Andy v Frank Schleck
    Basso v Wiggins
    Brajkovic v Horner
    Contador v A Schleck
    Evans v Gesink
    F Schleck v van den Broeck
  • cajun_cyclistcajun_cyclist Posts: 493
    Rich sure does have it down.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,210
    It must have been 2008 when I did that Evans thing. Looking at the stage results he was always between 20th-40th (usually in the 20s)* on the non-GC stages, which gave me a good fighting chance at slightly less than evens.

    *His finishing positions were: 21,39,28,40,20,37,28,22,22,24
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 13,137
    The race for third is most interesting. 9/1 Van Den Broeck is tempting.
  • Rule74PleaseRule74Please Posts: 307
    Only mug punters invest in a race that is 3 weeks long.

    How many of you bet on the grand national?

    An old rule "if it can talk - don't bet on it"
    Don't know the Rules?

    http://www.velominati.com/blog/the-rules/
  • verylonglegsverylonglegs Posts: 3,613
    Rule74Please wrote:
    Only mug punters invest in a race that is 3 weeks long.

    How many of you bet on the grand national?

    An old rule "if it can talk - don't bet on it"

    Have to disagree with that.
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    Rule74Please wrote:
    Only mug punters invest in a race that is 3 weeks long.

    How many of you bet on the grand national?

    An old rule "if it can talk - don't bet on it"

    So you would say the same about the world Cup then? I won £250 from a £5 stake at the last one. Good ol' diego Forlan :)
  • Rule74PleaseRule74Please Posts: 307
    £5 is not a punt

    £50 would be the start.

    Only mugs bet when the athletes talk

    Tyson 1/25 against buster douglas ring any bells
    Don't know the Rules?

    http://www.velominati.com/blog/the-rules/
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    Equally only a mug would follow all those twatty "rules" ;)
  • MrTapirMrTapir Posts: 1,206
    Rule74Please wrote:
    £5 is not a punt

    £50 would be the start.

    Only mugs bet when the athletes talk

    Tyson 1/25 against buster douglas ring any bells

    You're not that man with all the gold that does the boxing punditry are you?
  • verylonglegsverylonglegs Posts: 3,613
    Of course, the jockeys and trainers are mute too....
  • dougzzdougzz Posts: 1,833
    Rule74Please wrote:
    £5 is not a punt

    £50 would be the start.

    Only mugs bet when the athletes talk

    Tyson 1/25 against buster douglas ring any bells

    Complete twaddle. £5 is a perfectly reasonable stake, it all depends on your attitude to risk and your disposable income. There are times for some people when massive odds-on represents simply buying money, for others it's always a bad idea.
  • Rule74PleaseRule74Please Posts: 307
    If you've ever been to a racetrack you will know the bookies turn up in the mercs Rolls Royces and Jags and the punters arrive in the fords and other cheap beaten up cars.

    Betting is for mugs

    Ps things are odds on as they are likely to win. When a 100/1 shot comes in the bookies make a fortune
    Don't know the Rules?

    http://www.velominati.com/blog/the-rules/
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    Rule74Please wrote:
    If you've ever been to a racetrack you will know the bookies turn up in the mercs Rolls Royces and Jags and the punters arrive in the fords and other cheap beaten up cars.

    Betting is for mugs

    Ps things are odds on as they are likely to win. When a 100/1 shot comes in the bookies make a fortune

    Betting may be for mugs as a long term past time, but as a dabble a few times a year for small wagers it is just abit of fun. If you have nothing constructive to add to this thread then please don't bother.
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    Evans vs S Sanchez for stage 1 on bet 365. Though does Rich class this as a flat stage? :)
  • CumulonimbusCumulonimbus Posts: 1,730
    Some interesting ones there:

    Hesjedal v Peter Velits
    Cunego v Vino
  • cogidubnuscogidubnus Posts: 860
    I also like Boonen @ 50-1 each way for stage 1
  • MaxwellBygravesMaxwellBygraves Posts: 1,455
    Just placed some bets myself on Paddy Power. All a bit of fun, if I actually win anything will be a brucey bonus. Can't wait now!

    - (Each way) J Van Den Broeck @ 22/1
    Betting Without Contador

    - (To win) C Evans @ 25/1
    Outright Betting

    - (7th - 10th) @ 11/1
    Nicolas Roche Finishing Position

    - (To win) R Gesink @ 5/1
    Betting without Big 2

    - (Each way) F Schleck @ 55/1
    Outright Betting

    - (Each way) B Wiggins @ 14/1
    Betting Without Contador
    "That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college! " - Homer
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 25,210
    Cogidubnus wrote:
    Evans vs S Sanchez for stage 1 on bet 365. Though does Rich class this as a flat stage? :)

    Not stage 1. I classed flat stages as stages where the GC riders wouldn't dream of doing anything other than sitting in the bunch.

    For these head-to-head bets an invaluable resource is www.cqranking.com which has a head-to-head feature where you can directly compare the results of two riders (over various terrain - flat, mountains, TT).

    PS Sanchez is very much like Evans, invariable near the front (Contador too)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • awallaceawallace Posts: 191
    Thomas Veockler who is written up as favourite in many places, is 20/1 for stage one with paddy power! Had a fiver eachway on that!
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