Can Levi win the Giro or TDF?

dave_1
dave_1 Posts: 9,512
edited March 2009 in Pro race
I think so...reckon the Contador-LA conflict is more likely Levi-Contador
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player

Comments

  • richard wants a baum
    richard wants a baum Posts: 744
    Doubt Lance wont make the TdF and even an injured Lance is better than a fully fit Levi. He has 16 sec on Contador which isnt enough as soon as the road tilts upwards.
    Take care of the luxuries and the necessites will take care of themselves.
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    richard wants a baum wrote:
    Doubt Lance wont make the TdF and even an injured Lance is better than a fully fit Levi. He has 16 sec on Contador which isnt enough as soon as the road tilts upwards.

    am quite impressed by Levi...that's the second time he's delieverd in a TT this season. I think his lack of explosiveness on the climbs could just about be made up for by his TTing this summer
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • Kléber
    Kléber Posts: 6,842
    He was 13:1 with some bookmakers. Given he's come close before, that looks like value. As for explosiveness on climbs, he ripped up the field in California. But January is not July of course. Still, it is possible he's on the podium in July.
  • skavanagh.bikeradar
    skavanagh.bikeradar Posts: 1,097
    If Lance is at the Tour (of course he will be!) and so is The Accountant and Levi is on this sort of form.........good luck to Brunyeel with that lot.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,832
    They could lose all on the road, arguing about who has to fetch the water!
    Shaping up like another 2007.....all coming down to the Ventoux.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • calvjones
    calvjones Posts: 3,850
    He only lost the Vuelta on bonus seconds, so I'd say yes.
    ___________________

    Strava is not Zen.
  • teagar
    teagar Posts: 2,100
    calvjones wrote:
    He only lost the Vuelta on bonus seconds, so I'd say yes.

    I'd recon had the bonus seconds not been there Contador would have just eeked out a little more time to win anyway.
    Note: the above post is an opinion and not fact. It might be a lie.
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Of course he can. Needs a mishap from Contador though.

    Besides Contador, I would expect Shleck (the younger better one), Sastre, Evans and Menchov to be too strong for Levi, but he definitely has a shout.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • TheStone
    TheStone Posts: 2,291
    Could be the best tour for years. I'd like to see Levi get a chance, but unless something big happens to the top 2, he'll be working for one of them.

    I think it'll be Schleck (the younger) vs Contador, but loads of oldies (inc Armstrong, Evans and Sastre) and youngens (Gesink, Kr..., ) to make it really interesting.

    Is there much chance of Basso getting a ride? I've not seen much about him.
    exercise.png
  • pb21
    pb21 Posts: 2,170
    I really cant see him winning it. Its possible but there are others more capable than him.

    I cant see anyone stopping Contador.
    Mañana
  • alanmcn1
    alanmcn1 Posts: 531
    I'd like to see Contador and Levi's "time trial training" made public........................................

    If Leipheimmer wins the tour am turning my attention to a sport with more realistic champions.......baseball maybe
    Robert Millar for knighthood
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    Cadel > Levi.

    Leipheimer is a bigger wheelsucker than Evans, who always gets knocked for being boring.
  • crown_jewel
    crown_jewel Posts: 545
    Actually, I think Levi and Cadel are quite similar in that they are very cautious. For that reason mainly, I think it would take a crash or major error by Contador to give Levi a chance. Not to mention Levi will be riding for AC one would think.
  • donrhummy
    donrhummy Posts: 2,329
    The Giro - yes. The TDF - no, because he'll be fighting Contador and I don't think Bruyneel will have the team give Levi the support instead of Contador. I think he has the ability to win the TDF, but he'd need a really strong team and i think if he and Contador were on diff. teams with equal strength domestiques, Contador would win. In the mountains, Contador can handle tons of speed changes, accelerations, attacks. Levi can handle any mountain but has a lot more trouble with constant attacks and speed changes. In the time trials, Levi's definitely better but Contador's improved enough that overall I don't think levi could overcome the mountain deficits.
  • donrhummy
    donrhummy Posts: 2,329
    The Giro - yes. The TDF - no, because he'll be fighting Contador and I don't think Bruyneel will have the team give Levi the support instead of Contador. I think he has the ability to win the TDF, but he'd need a really strong team and i think if he and Contador were on diff. teams with equal strength domestiques, Contador would win. In the mountains, Contador can handle tons of speed changes, accelerations, attacks. Levi can handle any mountain but has a lot more trouble with constant attacks and speed changes. In the time trials, Levi's definitely better but Contador's improved enough that overall I don't think levi could overcome the mountain deficits.
  • suspectdevice
    suspectdevice Posts: 263
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    They could lose all on the road, arguing about who has to fetch the water!
    Shaping up like another 2007.....all coming down to the Ventoux.

    I really hope so, been watching the tour since 87 this is the first year i get to see it live.
  • ACMadone
    ACMadone Posts: 300
    Timoid. wrote:
    Of course he can. Needs a mishap from Contador though.

    Besides Contador, I would expect Shleck (the younger better one), Sastre, Evans and Menchov to be too strong for Levi, but he definitely has a shout.

    Evans maybe, but do you really see Sastre or Menchove being too strong for Levi?

    I'm expecting Contador to show Baby Shleck how to climb properly exactly the same way as he rode away from big brother in Paris - Nice up La Montagne de Lure
  • mclarent
    mclarent Posts: 784
    ACMadone wrote:
    Timoid. wrote:
    Of course he can. Needs a mishap from Contador though.

    Besides Contador, I would expect Shleck (the younger better one), Sastre, Evans and Menchov to be too strong for Levi, but he definitely has a shout.

    Evans maybe, but do you really see Sastre or Menchove being too strong for Levi?

    I'm expecting Contador to show Baby Shleck how to climb properly exactly the same way as he rode away from big brother in Paris - Nice up La Montagne de Lure

    I can't see anything wrong with that - it would take a crash / freak of nature to beat Contador. If he remembers to eat, looks like he has the TdF in his pocket. Actually, biggest challenge could be having a team around him - if Kloden, Levi and LA all start, Astana could have at least 2 podium places. Going to be fascinating to see what happens!!
    "And the Lord said unto Cain, 'where is Abel thy brother?' And he said, 'I know not: I dropped him on the climb up to the motorway bridge'."
    - eccolafilosofiadelpedale
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,832
    With Lance a probable Giro non-starter and Levi already pencilled in and in great form, he should be going all out for this.
    Unfortunately, after Contador winning the race, last year, Bruyneel will now relegated it on his list of "must wins", to below the Vuelta e Castilla y Leon and California.

    Levi will "switch off", until JB/LA switch him back on, again, by placing a water bottle in his hand, while shouting: "Go fetch, boy!"
    mclarent wrote:
    I can't see anything wrong with that - it would take a crash / freak of nature to beat Contador. If he remembers to eat, looks like he has the TdF in his pocket. Actually, biggest challenge could be having a team around him - if Kloden, Levi and LA all start, Astana could have at least 2 podium places. Going to be fascinating to see what happens!!

    Is it? fascinating, I mean.

    Zubeldia will be on domestique duties, too.

    Seems to me, most "fans" of Astana would rather 2 podium spots in the Tour, to winning both the Giro and the Tour.
    I find that to be a narrow field of vision, rather than fascinating.
    Nobody has the Tour in their pocket, until it's won.
    Especially as the Paris-Nice appears to have been lost for want of a jam sandwich.
    All the eggs in one basket....
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • mclarent
    mclarent Posts: 784
    Blazing Saddles wrote:
    Is it? fascinating, I mean.

    Zubeldia will be on domestique duties, too.

    Seems to me, most "fans" of Astana would rather 2 podium spots in the Tour, to winning both the Giro and the Tour.
    I find that to be a narrow field of vision, rather than fascinating.
    Nobody has the Tour in their pocket, until it's won.
    Especially as the Paris-Nice appears to have been lost for want of a jam sandwich.
    All the eggs in one basket....

    Tell you what I think is fascinating:

    Contador would have won the P-N except for a jam sandwich, and any kind of team support whatsoever. He was so isolated it was almost funny. Implies to me that they need at least Kloden and Levi to be there and on v good form to have a chance.

    Then you have Saxo Bank, who have a Shleck or two amongst their ranks, as well as a Voigt, a Cancellara, a Riis, and experience of winning the race - maybe enough to win it again if they play it correctly.

    Then there are the "smaller" teams, who may not have the strength to play the team game as well, but could do damage (names as above, plus possible cameos from Valverde, Cunego and others).

    Then you have the sprint battle - will Cav dominate Bonnen? Will anyone else get a look in? Will Cav make it to the Champs Elysee?

    All that I think could lead to a fascinating race. Although of course, Astana might just dominate it from the first TT...

    On the Astana fans: I'm not suprised that they would want the team to dominate the race really, given they were excluded last year, and it's par for the course if you have such a talented squad that those on Domestique duty can end up close to the top of the order - especially if you're as good a cyclist as (e.g.) Levi.

    For the record, I'm a Cav fan :wink:
    "And the Lord said unto Cain, 'where is Abel thy brother?' And he said, 'I know not: I dropped him on the climb up to the motorway bridge'."
    - eccolafilosofiadelpedale
  • kickerbri
    kickerbri Posts: 53
    I'm sure Levi can have a good crack at the Giro but not sure he will be given the license to at the Tour unless something goes badly wrong for Contador. Levi will be the team leader at the Giro and should have a half decent team with him but I am not sure his climbing ability is good enough to actually win it.

    I actually think this is the perfect year for the top riders away from Astana to snatch the Tour, Astana have to many captains and to much of an ongoing internal affair for them to all suddenly be working as a team come July. What happens for example if on the last climb of the day and the lead group contains Armstrong, Contador and Levi? Who works for who? Who covers attacks?
  • Kléber
    Kléber Posts: 6,842
    If he was on another team, he'd be rated alongside Menchov and Evans as an outside contender. But yes, he's very boring. I enjoyed Sastre's win as he went for it, attacking and dropping the others when it mattered. Leipheimer just appears, relying on consistently finishing 7th each day to work up the GC. No panache.

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