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Next Brexit Country.

oxomanoxoman Posts: 7,832
edited 7 February in The cake stop
Given were finally out of the EU, I was thinking who,s next. My guess is Spain or Holland although Italy wouldn't surprise me. Would that sound the death bells for the EU, suspect so. Given my comments anyone willing to give odds or name the first ones to leave. Similar to celebrity death format. So mine are Spain.
Holland.
Italy.
To have started to leave by 2023.
Did think about Greece but they're in to deep financially.
Too many bikes according to Mrs O.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    edited 7 February
    Imagine Brexit has put the rest of the countries off for the foreseeable future.

    The only thing I can see happening is if Poland continues down its authoritarian route, in which case there would be a case to chuck em out but even that is highly unlikely.
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 10,132
    It's all gone smoothly for the UK, I can't see why any other country would have second thoughts about whether it would be worth it, especially those in the euro.

    What the UK has shown is that each country retains sovereignty, and is entirely free to choose to leave.
    and then the next thing you know
  • oxomanoxoman Posts: 7,832
    It's not that long ago EU member countries printed there own currency again. Germany, Italy and I think Holland amongst them. This was when we threatened to leave and Greece was being bailed out and it was causing waves of panic within the member countries.
    Too many bikes according to Mrs O.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,747
    edited 7 February
    You won't make yourself popular in Cake Stop starting threads like this :)

    Italy I reckon are more likely to try breaking away from the single currency than a full departure from the EU (or may inadvertently precipitate a departure from the Euro if they have a major banking/debt crisis).

    I would say France is a risk - for that to happen Le Pen would need to get elected in 2022 as I don't see how she can push her agenda (economic protectionism, anti-immigration etc) without leaving the EU. On the totally scientific basis of watching 'Ed Balls travels in Euroland' last night, I would say it could happen.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    Stevo_666 said:

    You won't make yourself popular in Cake Stop starting threads like this :)

    Italy I reckon are more likely to try and break away from the single currency than a full departure from the EU.

    I would say France is a risk - for that to happen Le Pen would need to get elected in 2022 as I don't see how she can push her agenda (economic protectionism, anti-immigration etc) without leaving the EU. On the totally scientific basis of watching 'Ed Balls travels in Euroland' last night, I would say it could happen.

    Have you actually listened to what Le Pen or the M5S etc have been saying? Pretty much every far right movement on the continent has sought to distance themselves from any idea of an EU exit since Brexit.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,747

    Stevo_666 said:

    You won't make yourself popular in Cake Stop starting threads like this :)

    Italy I reckon are more likely to try and break away from the single currency than a full departure from the EU.

    I would say France is a risk - for that to happen Le Pen would need to get elected in 2022 as I don't see how she can push her agenda (economic protectionism, anti-immigration etc) without leaving the EU. On the totally scientific basis of watching 'Ed Balls travels in Euroland' last night, I would say it could happen.

    Have you actually listened to what Le Pen or the M5S etc have been saying? Pretty much every far right movement on the continent has sought to distance themselves from any idea of an EU exit since Brexit.
    Italy - yes, hence my statement. France - no.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    edited 7 February
    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/06/marine-le-pen-eu-has-more-to-lose-on-brexit-but-i-don-t-want-frexit

    Interview with her. Headline:
    Marine Le Pen: EU has more to lose on Brexit, but I don't want Frexit


    Published yesterday.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    I would hazard a guess that a lot of Brexiters who wish the demise of the EU are getting high on their own supply if they think that the experience of Brexit has done anything but make leaving the EU be incredibly unpopular.

  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 10,132
    Stevo_666 said:

    You won't make yourself popular in Cake Stop starting threads like this :)

    Don't understand this - it's much more interesting if someone disagrees. As long as they make sense and don't get abusive.
    and then the next thing you know
  • davep1davep1 Posts: 736
    We drive through Europe to Italy every summer, and then drive back. Usually through Belgium Luxembourg France Switzerland, sometimes Austria or Germany.

    Absolutely NOONE we have spoken to in ANY of those countries think leaving the EU is a good idea. They all accept it isn't perfect and can be improved, but they all think we are stupid beyond belief to do what we have done. If anyone on this forum thinks otherwise then you have been mugged off by our "fantastic" 🙄 media and journalists.
  • WheelspinnerWheelspinner Posts: 4,726


    Jesus wept. Not another Brexit thread...
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    edited 7 February
    Poland is a real headache, as the prospect of ejecting a member...sheesh.

    But then if they are making laws that directly contravene the rules of EU membership, what else can ya do to maintain integrity of the union?

    It's a real headache.

  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,533

    Poland is a real headache, as the prospect of ejecting a member...sheesh.

    But then if they are making laws that directly contravene the rules of EU membership, what else can ya do to maintain integrity of the union?

    It's a real headache.

    I thought the mechanism would be to tie them in knots until they triggered A50
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,533
    oxoman said:

    Given were finally out of the EU, I was thinking who,s next. My guess is Spain or Holland although Italy wouldn't surprise me. Would that sound the death bells for the EU, suspect so. Given my comments anyone willing to give odds or name the first ones to leave. Similar to celebrity death format. So mine are Spain.
    Holland.
    Italy.
    To have started to leave by 2023.
    Did think about Greece but they're in to deep financially.

    Country's our cueing up to join. No country will have started to leave (voluntarily) by 2023
  • oxomanoxoman Posts: 7,832
    Stevo, The old brexit thread was getting boring. Thought I'd just provide the ammo and retire. WS, like the meme keep it up, makes it more fun. Yes you guessed it, I'm bored.
    Too many bikes according to Mrs O.
  • France

    However I don't think it will happen this decade.

    And it won't be one thing but a build up internallywithin France and in the EU.

    The final straw will be the French jealousy at seeing the UK doing well while they are still subsidising the political EU project to the detrement of their own country.

    The thing that is the death warrant for the EU is all those pro-EU, anti-Brexit politicised economic forecasts about the UK doing badly after leaving the EU. When the populus realise these were fake is the final straw for when the French will vote to leave the EU.
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  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,703
    Scotland
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • oxomanoxoman Posts: 7,832
    Keep the builders busy building a border wall again to keep the jocks up north.
    Too many bikes according to Mrs O.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here

    Scotland

    That has (arguably) already happened.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,747

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/06/marine-le-pen-eu-has-more-to-lose-on-brexit-but-i-don-t-want-frexit

    Interview with her. Headline:

    Marine Le Pen: EU has more to lose on Brexit, but I don't want Frexit


    Published yesterday.
    Fair enough, but everything else in that article points towards a change in future as her desire to stay seems to rest on the EU reforming itself into a loose alliance of nations. Not sure how likely you think that is but I have a squadron of pigs on standby. And when that doesn't happen she has paved the way to do another U-turn.

    Quote of the rest of the article:
    "Her plan to reform the EU into an alliance of nations must be adopted or "other countries will leave," she told Euronews.

    Le Pen was once in favour of France leaving the EU. Her National Rally — formerly the National Front — used to support Frexit and she even promised a UK-style in-out referendum on membership.

    However, her stance shifted amid a rebranding of her party in the wake of the 2017 presidential election loss to Emmanuel Macron.

    Instead, the Rassemlement National wants to recreate the EU as an "alliance of nations." Le Pen says that she believes far-right politicians within the EU now have the power to "radically modify" Europe.

    "Maybe Great Britain can rejoin us once we've built something where each nation conserves their freedom," she said.

    She still considers Europe to be a "prison" even if a founding member can leave it.

    "[Brexit] still took three years ... there was a real contempt for the people on the part of leaders of the European Union who barely hid wanting to make the divorce as difficult as possible," she said.

    Le Pen added that actions from other nations — including US President Donald Trump's efforts to place tariffs on some goods — prove that protectionism is the way forward economically.

    "Today, we realise that, yes, we will have to negotiate effectively, and perhaps we too can do some form of economic protection for our own countries," Le Pen said."
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  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 14,703

    Scotland

    That has (arguably) already happened.
    Ha!

    Made a right censored of myself there.






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  • ProssPross Posts: 22,603
    I can see a country threatening to leave then accepting some sort of deal that addresses their issues and allows them to remain (like we didn't do very well at the start of all this).
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,747
    Pross said:

    I can see a country threatening to leave then accepting some sort of deal that addresses their issues and allows them to remain (like we didn't do very well at the start of all this).

    I think part of the problem was that many considered we didn't get some sort of deal that addressed our concerns. The EU didn't take it seriously at the time so offered some token stuff. Hey ho.
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    edited 7 February
    Stevo_666 said:

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/06/marine-le-pen-eu-has-more-to-lose-on-brexit-but-i-don-t-want-frexit

    Interview with her. Headline:

    Marine Le Pen: EU has more to lose on Brexit, but I don't want Frexit


    Published yesterday.
    Fair enough, but everything else in that article points towards a change in future as her desire to stay seems to rest on the EU reforming itself into a loose alliance of nations. Not sure how likely you think that is but I have a squadron of pigs on standby. And when that doesn't happen she has paved the way to do another U-turn.

    I don't for a moment think that she would rather no Frexit. She would dearly love to take France out.

    It's that the polling is so against it she'd be nuts to say so. She hates the EU as much as Farage does.

    Difference is, Brexit has put everyone off it.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    edited 7 February
    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    I can see a country threatening to leave then accepting some sort of deal that addresses their issues and allows them to remain (like we didn't do very well at the start of all this).

    I think part of the problem was that many considered we didn't get some sort of deal that addressed our concerns. The EU didn't take it seriously at the time so offered some token stuff. Hey ho.
    Just come out as Brexiter Stevo.

    Even if you voted remain (sceptical), you've got both feet in the Brexit camp now.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,747

    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    I can see a country threatening to leave then accepting some sort of deal that addresses their issues and allows them to remain (like we didn't do very well at the start of all this).

    I think part of the problem was that many considered we didn't get some sort of deal that addressed our concerns. The EU didn't take it seriously at the time so offered some token stuff. Hey ho.
    Just come out as Brexiter Stevo.

    Even if you voted remain (sceptical), you've got both feet in the Brexit camp now.
    I think you've just come out as slightly gullible. When a far right politician says something, most people on here usually take the view that what they are saying is lies or that there is another agenda - and most of the time they would be right. Yet when a far right politician says something that fits in your views (as above), we're meant to take it at face value?

    Right...
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 48,036 Lives Here
    Eh? I'm saying she thinks it's expedient for her to stay she wouldn't do Frexit despite the fact she plainly would want that?
  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 17,471
    Just more cakeism isn't it. Le Pen, Orban and the rest want the benefits without having to follow the rules and pay the subs.
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  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,862
    Sweden. Or Norway/Iceland if you include the EEA.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,747

    Eh? I'm saying she thinks it's expedient for her to stay she wouldn't do Frexit despite the fact she plainly would want that?

    Is it possible she said what she did to attract votes from those who may not want to leave (as well as from those who do by criticising the EU)?
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