LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!

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  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,858
    kingstongraham said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/26/labour-boring-party-managed-decline/

    This sentence in an attack on Labour will be music to their ears: "But look on the bright side: if the pound runs away and the Tories lose, I’m no longer terrified of Labour. The people at this conference are very nice and normal, nothing like the monsters on Twitter, and if they win – I no longer assume I’ll have to flee to Switzerland. "


    Labour's apparent avoidance of righteous anger at KK's kamikwasi budget must be part of this - rather than direct attacks, they are setting out an alternative, positive vision, which isn't scary to the majority of 'normal' people. It worked for Blair, I guess. To be fair, they are managing to show a united front, which is more than the Tories are doing.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    There's a fall guy now. Evil bond vigilantes, rather than evil poor (sorry, "envious") hating Tories.

    just to save everybody the trouble

    With inflation back at 1980s levels, it is only appropriate that the so-called bond vigilantes return. Ed Yardeni coined the term in the 1980s to describe the action of bond market investors to demand higher yields in reaction to monetary or fiscal policies.
    They became the bogeymen during the Sovereign Debt Crisis.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    At least Sunak can say he was right about Truss. What did he say? A run on Sterling and the Gilt market will be in freefall?

    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,737
    rick_chasey said:

    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.

    Anyone nearing retirement will should be aware, and altering plans.
    Those who retired in spring on personal pots are goosed. In the short term at least.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    pblakeney said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.

    Anyone nearing retirement will should be aware, and altering plans.
    Those who retired in spring on personal pots are goosed. In the short term at least.
    The strategy will be "sell equities, move into bonds" as you'll get a return on the bond but in reality it will be "sell equities to cover the collateral".
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    pblakeney said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.

    Anyone nearing retirement will should be aware, and altering plans.
    Those who retired in spring on personal pots are goosed. In the short term at least.
    He is talking about DB schemes, I doubt many DC schemes are using derivatives
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    pblakeney said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.

    Anyone nearing retirement will should be aware, and altering plans.
    Those who retired in spring on personal pots are goosed. In the short term at least.
    The strategy will be "sell equities, move into bonds" as you'll get a return on the bond but in reality it will be "sell equities to cover the collateral".
    our strategy was to move out of bonds into derivatives to get our inflation/interest hedge a lot higher.

    As interest rates have risen our deficit has narrowed and as you say we can accelerate our move out of equities to meet the margin calls which started on Friday and are coming hard this morning.

    Basically it is good news.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,737
    surrey_commuter said:

    pblakeney said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.

    Anyone nearing retirement will should be aware, and altering plans.
    Those who retired in spring on personal pots are goosed. In the short term at least.
    He is talking about DB schemes, I doubt many DC schemes are using derivatives
    How many still have access to DB pension schemes?
    Anyone with a DC pension scheme should be concerned as well, but probably won't like what they see.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,223
    kingstongraham said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Does it at least make pension investments overseas worth more £ ??

    Any anyone with US shareholdings. Every cloud... :)
    If you think this will all work out great for the UK and the currency markets have overreacted, you'll be selling those and bringing cash back at the inflated rate then?
    If anyone who thinks this is all great ISN'T prepared to make this gamble and back Britain, maybe the whole country shouldn't be forced into making it.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    I’ve spent a few days considering this and it is simply an overt attempt to reward their own kind and tank the economy for the next government.

    I know that’s not a new view and has already been suggested. But there is no other explanation.

    They know they won’t be in charge when the real pain hits and labour will be forced to be the party of raising taxes.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,223
    morstar said:

    I’ve spent a few days considering this and it is simply an overt attempt to reward their own kind and tank the economy for the next government.

    I know that’s not a new view and has already been suggested. But there is no other explanation.

    They know they won’t be in charge when the real pain hits and labour will be forced to be the party of raising taxes.

    No, it's worse than that - they really believe it.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,929
    Reeves has taken the opportunity given to her by Kwarteng to say, yes, we would restore the 45p rate on the rich people and fund midwives and nurses with it.

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    Meanwhile labour is declaring they'll renationalise the rail service - with what money, i ask you.
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,737
    rick_chasey said:

    Meanwhile labour is declaring they'll renationalise the rail service - with what money, i ask you.

    How much do you think they are worth? 😉
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    I think we can all agree I am not an objective observer of the rail industry.

    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,624
    I would guess with reduced passenger numbers, many of the franchises wouldn't fight too hard to hold on to them.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    kingstongraham said:

    morstar said:

    I’ve spent a few days considering this and it is simply an overt attempt to reward their own kind and tank the economy for the next government.

    I know that’s not a new view and has already been suggested. But there is no other explanation.

    They know they won’t be in charge when the real pain hits and labour will be forced to be the party of raising taxes.

    No, it's worse than that - they really believe it.
    That depresses me.
    Tbh, if there was an actual strategy behind how this reduced tax burden directly correlates to growth, I would at least have something to agree or disagree with.
    All I can see is a theory they are borrowing money to test.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    rick_chasey said:

    Meanwhile labour is declaring they'll renationalise the rail service - with what money, i ask you.

    Well they don’t need to buy the franchises. It can just happen as they expire.

    I’m either way on it. British rail was awful, but nationalised rail doesn’t need to be.
    Virgin west coast was good 80% of the time I used it. I generally have positive views on it.

    Currently, I can only buy tickets to London about a month in advance. Knowing the costs will be appallingly high, I will be driving for my next trip darn sarf.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    I'd rather they commit to restructuring the entire rail industry so that actually makes sense, but anyway.
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,568
    rick_chasey said:

    I'd rather they commit to restructuring the entire rail industry so that actually makes sense, but anyway.

    People stop subsidising middle class commuters?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,585
    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I'd rather they commit to restructuring the entire rail industry so that actually makes sense, but anyway.

    People stop subsidising middle class commuters?
    How about a service that actually runs according to the timetable? Try that for starters.
    _
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 2,907
    Apparently MPs are already sending in letters of no confidence...
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,737
    Jezyboy said:

    Apparently MPs are already sending in letters of no confidence...

    The conference might actually be interesting for a change.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,623
    rick_chasey said:

    Meanwhile labour is declaring they'll renationalise the rail service - with what money, i ask you.

    The money that currently goes out in dividends?
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,568
    Jezyboy said:

    Apparently MPs are already sending in letters of no confidence...

    Essentially, they have no confidence in the members of their party.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    pblakeney said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    pblakeney said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.

    Anyone nearing retirement will should be aware, and altering plans.
    Those who retired in spring on personal pots are goosed. In the short term at least.
    He is talking about DB schemes, I doubt many DC schemes are using derivatives
    How many still have access to DB pension schemes?
    Anyone with a DC pension scheme should be concerned as well, but probably won't like what they see.
    the shut schemes still have a colossal amount of assets so if they have to sell equities to meet margin calls then FTSE will fall as well.

    Most pensions scheme members won't have a clue so long as it does not coincide with being sent their annual statement
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,737
    surrey_commuter said:

    pblakeney said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    pblakeney said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Seems a lot of pension funds will be facing big collateral calls at this rate.

    Anyone nearing retirement will should be aware, and altering plans.
    Those who retired in spring on personal pots are goosed. In the short term at least.
    He is talking about DB schemes, I doubt many DC schemes are using derivatives
    How many still have access to DB pension schemes?
    Anyone with a DC pension scheme should be concerned as well, but probably won't like what they see.
    the shut schemes still have a colossal amount of assets so if they have to sell equities to meet margin calls then FTSE will fall as well.

    Most pensions scheme members won't have a clue so long as it does not coincide with being sent their annual statement
    Thanks for the first point. I was missing the knock on effect.
    On the second point, making life decisions based on point in time figures is asking for trouble. Any sensible person nearing maturity would be looking at the trends.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    TheBigBean said:

    Jezyboy said:

    Apparently MPs are already sending in letters of no confidence...

    Essentially, they have no confidence in the members of their party.
    It would be very funny if she lasted less time than the selection process.

    Will there be long enough to get Boris de-selected?
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    My colleague heard that was a rumour....

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