Ronde van Vlaanderen 2017 *spoilers*

takethehighroad

Done some star ratings and that

5*****
Sagan, GVA

4****
Gilbert, Kristoff, Vanmarcke

3***
The rest of Quickstep, Benoot, Degenkolb, Stuyven, EBH, Durbridge, van Keirsbulk, Vandenbergh, Naesen

2**
Stannard, Rowe, Boom, Breschel, Colbrelli, Demare, Devolder, Pozatto

1*
Roelandts, Felline, Bettiol, Martin, Pollitt, Gatto, Eisel, Senechal

rick_chasey

Gilbert is 4 star on his own.

Relegate the other two. Send Stybar to 2 star. Boonen too.

Devolder is 1 star. As is Boom and Pozzato.

Boom is going so badly Tankink is finishing higher.

RichN95.

I reckon Moscon is worth a star if Sky let him ride with his own ambitions. He looked their best rider at GW until he crashed.

Pross

I'd have Rowe higher and EBH lower.

RichN95.

Here'e the democratic star rating - the bookies odds

13/8 Sagan
3/1 Van Avermaet
9/1 Gilbert
12/1 Kristoff
20/1 Vanmarcke, Degenkolb
22/1 Stybar
25/1 Naesen, Terpstra, Rowe, Boonen
33/1 Benoot
50/1 Stuyven, Gallopin, Durbridge, Roelandts

takethehighroad

Quickstep are all 3 star using something that's known as the Devolder matrix, where any of them can win if they get into a break that doesn't get chased.

Some of the 2 and 1 stars aren't too heavily thought out, as it was a case of "who haven't I put?". Apart from Rowe, I'd be super surprised if he was in the Top 10

Pross

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

Apart from Rowe, I'd be super surprised if he was in the Top 10

How comes? He was 5th last year and has had a fairly good start to the season including two top 5 positions in Belgian (semi) classics.

blazing_saddles

Pross wrote:

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

Apart from Rowe, I'd be super surprised if he was in the Top 10

How comes? He was 5th last year and has had a fairly good start to the season including two top 5 positions in Belgian (semi) classics.

He hasn't looked great in the past couple of races, though.
Hope he's been bluffing.

Richmond Racer 2

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Pross wrote:

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

Apart from Rowe, I'd be super surprised if he was in the Top 10

How comes? He was 5th last year and has had a fairly good start to the season including two top 5 positions in Belgian (semi) classics.

He hasn't looked great in the past couple of races, though.
Hope he's been bluffing.

True dat

Also. EBH, 3 stars...wat??

salsiccia1

Richmond Racer 2 wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Pross wrote:

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

Apart from Rowe, I'd be super surprised if he was in the Top 10

How comes? He was 5th last year and has had a fairly good start to the season including two top 5 positions in Belgian (semi) classics.

He hasn't looked great in the past couple of races, though.
Hope he's been bluffing.

True dat

Also. EBH, 3 stars...wat??

Must be some variation on Stockholm Syndrome after having to listen to Kirby so much recently

jimmythecuckoo

Agree pretty much with most people on the star ratings...

https://tmblr.co/Zck52j2K73_G7

spam02

Light winds and wet cobbles forecast for Sunday

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racin ... ays-322519

Unlike PR (when I always hope it rains :twisted: ), I much prefer a dry Flanders. Don't want to see riders having to back off the power on any of the climbs.

dish_dash

Interesting... Wet weather for Flanders is also a bummer if you're road side...

I'm not convinced that my man Kristoff has the legs this year. He seems a tad off the boil, and I don't think that his classics support team has been the same since Il Gerva left.

dish_dash

From INRNG:

"Edvald Boasson Hagen gets the copy-paste “due a big win in the spring classics but we’ve been saying that ever since he won the 2009 Gent-Wevelgem and it’s not happened yet” stock comment."

milton50

dish_dash wrote:

I'm not convinced that my man Kristoff has the legs this year. He seems a tad off the boil, and I don't think that his classics support team has been the same since Il Gerva left.

He's not in the same shape as 2015 but I don't think he's far off you know.

4th in San Remo, won a hard sprint a couple of days ago, and then put in a great TT yesterday.

Wouldn't surprise me to see him do better than a lot of people expect.

dish_dash

Milton50 wrote:

dish_dash wrote:

I'm not convinced that my man Kristoff has the legs this year. He seems a tad off the boil, and I don't think that his classics support team has been the same since Il Gerva left.

He's not in the same shape as 2015 but I don't think he's far off you know.

4th in San Remo, won a hard sprint a couple of days ago, and then put in a great TT yesterday.

Wouldn't surprise me to see him do better than a lot of people expect.

Fair enough. If it ends in a bunch then I'd rate him, but don't think he's gonna survive a break of the favs... and on current GVA/Sag/Pip form I reckon it'll be a win from a break...

blazing_saddles

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racin ... ent-322731

“On Sunday I will take my responsibility. If I – or my colleagues – can see an infringement and can identify a rider riding on a footpath in order to gain even one metre advantage, then he will be unceremoniously excluded from the race. No discussion.”

I'll believe it when I see it.

Pross

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Pross wrote:

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

Apart from Rowe, I'd be super surprised if he was in the Top 10

How comes? He was 5th last year and has had a fairly good start to the season including two top 5 positions in Belgian (semi) classics.

He hasn't looked great in the past couple of races, though.
Hope he's been bluffing.

I reckon not necessarily bluffing but holding back a bit. Sky have shown their hand in the final build up races in recent years and then missed out on the big 2 so maybe they have decided to take the dark horse approach this time. I'm hoping so in any case though I'd rather he wins P-R.

rick_chasey

dish_dash wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

dish_dash wrote:

I'm not convinced that my man Kristoff has the legs this year. He seems a tad off the boil, and I don't think that his classics support team has been the same since Il Gerva left.

He's not in the same shape as 2015 but I don't think he's far off you know.

4th in San Remo, won a hard sprint a couple of days ago, and then put in a great TT yesterday.

Wouldn't surprise me to see him do better than a lot of people expect.

Fair enough. If it ends in a bunch then I'd rate him, but don't think he's gonna survive a selection of the favs... and on current GVA/Sag/Pip form I reckon it'll be a win from a selection...

FTFY.

bigmat

I reckon Kristoff's carrying a bit of timber - looked tubby at the weekend and I kicked his arse up the Baneberg. Degenkolb far more likely to win in a sprint from a reduced bunch type situation. Hope Rowe / Stannard can find some form - seems set up to be Rowe for Flanders, Stannard for P-R, although Rowe probably favours P-R himself.

I have a feeling Sagan will turn out to be far stronger than GVA over repeated bergs, so he is my tip (I''m really going out on a limb!) although I expect GVA will be there or thereabouts subject to crashes / mechanicals. Dege as an outsider if he can hang on.

spam02

Pross wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Pross wrote:

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

Apart from Rowe, I'd be super surprised if he was in the Top 10

How comes? He was 5th last year and has had a fairly good start to the season including two top 5 positions in Belgian (semi) classics.

He hasn't looked great in the past couple of races, though.
Hope he's been bluffing.

I reckon not necessarily bluffing but holding back a bit. Sky have shown their hand in the final build up races in recent years and then missed out on the big 2 so maybe they have decided to take the dark horse approach this time. I'm hoping so in any case though I'd rather he wins P-R.

He's just come off putting in a load of Donkey work at Paris Nice. If you look at where he is this season compared to last, he's on a par results and performance wise. I wouldn't be surprised for a top 10 and if in the right place when the decisive move is made, top 5 again isn't out of the question. I think a podium may just be out of reach

bobmcstuff

I think GVA has the best chance.

Still went for Gilbert in PTP but that's more out of a desire to see the Belgian Champs jersey win Flanders than actual belief. That would be awesome. Phil still a good shot for a podium though and therefore good PTP points.

rick_chasey

GvA has the measure of Sagan, and Sagan's record in sprints after hard races is actually quite poor.

TheBigBean

I'm not sure why Phil G merits 3rd favourite status.

RichN95.

TheBigBean wrote:

I'm not sure why Phil G merits 3rd favourite status.

Bang in form, strong team, used to do well in the race when he rode it.

jgsi

Mr B with a knowing I aint gonna win stylee
Lady with imposing iPAD16 case

andyp

Rick Chasey wrote:

GvA has the measure of Sagan, and Sagan's record in sprints after hard races is actually quite poor.

BMC have never won a monument. Which surprised me when I read it on www.cyclingnews.com this morning, so I went and checked it as I thought it might be a typical lazy error by them. But it's not.

So GvA has both the curse of winning Het Nieuwsblad and is riding for a team that has never won a monument (and is generally tactically conservative). The odds are stacked against him, if you believe in any of this actually meaning anything.

graeme_s-2

Blazing Saddles wrote:

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/tour-flanders-commissaires-promise-disqualify-riders-ride-pavement-322731

“On Sunday I will take my responsibility. If I – or my colleagues – can see an infringement and can identify a rider riding on a footpath in order to gain even one metre advantage, then he will be unceremoniously excluded from the race. No discussion.”

I'll believe it when I see it.

They're still giving themselves wiggle room to not bother applying it consistently. Personally I think it's just part of this style of racing and I'd just punish recklessly endangering spectators rather than the rule they've come up with. But if they are going to make this a rule and say they are going to enforce it then they just need to do it consistently and attempt to punish all pavement riding until the riders stop doing it.

tailwindhome

Sagan

It's like an episode of Columbo.
The question isn't who but how?



(C) Inner Ring Paris Roubaix 2013(?)

rick_chasey

andyp wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

GvA has the measure of Sagan, and Sagan's record in sprints after hard races is actually quite poor.

BMC have never won a monument. Which surprised me when I read it on http://www.cyclingnews.com this morning, so I went and checked it as I thought it might be a typical lazy error by them. But it's not.

So GvA has both the curse of winning Het Nieuwsblad and is riding for a team that has never won a monument (and is generally tactically conservative). The odds are stacked against him, if you believe in any of this actually meaning anything.

I did, and then it bit me in the ass multiple times, most obviously with Cav & Milan San Remo.

GvA is the man to beat, and it's not like Bora have either a team or have won a monument either. :-P.

And tbh, I think the olympics is at the same level as a monument, as are the worlds.