BREXIT 2020 - Bye Bye Brussels. It's Been a Blast.🇬🇧

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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.

    They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.
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  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 7,625
    Stevo_666 said:

    I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.

    They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.
    Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.
    and then the next thing you know
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    Stevo_666 said:

    I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.

    They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.
    Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.
    It has the benefits I mentioned above.

    You could argue that the exisiting piles of regulation that companies have to deal with have the same benefits and disadvantages.
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  • ProssPross Posts: 21,178

    The NI assembly has unanimously approved a motion to withhold consent for the WA
    Means nothing though




    That has to be a pretty rare occurrence in NI politics?
  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 15,734
    Stevo_666 said:

    This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn

    Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.

    I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this? ;)
    We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.
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  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 7,625
    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.

    They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.
    Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.
    It has the benefits I mentioned above.

    You could argue that the exisiting piles of regulation that companies have to deal with have the same benefits and disadvantages.
    This is more like an earthquake being positive for GDP because of the extra spending to clear up afterwards. That doesn't make it a good thing.
    and then the next thing you know
  • Stevo_666 said:

    And more good news, as EU financial sector firms who need to retain access to one of the worlds largest financial markets flock to the UK on a scale which would appear to substantially offset any outbound relocation:-
    https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/20/boost-city-eu-firms-flock-set-uk-offices-brexit/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

    In case its behind a paywall, here you go:
    "More than 1,000 EU financial services companies plan to open UK offices after Brexit in a bid to continue serving customers in Britain.

    An influx of companies opening offices, hiring staff and renting office space could help to mitigate the economic blow dealt to the City by British institutions moving some of their assets and operations to European financial centres such as Paris and Frankfurt.

    A total of 1,441 EU companies had applied to the Financial Conduct Authority by October 2019 for temporary permission to continue operating in the UK after Brexit, according to figures obtained by consultancy Bovill under a freedom of information request.

    Temporary clearance will allow banks, insurers and asset managers to carry on serving customers in Britain if the UK and EU do not agree to preserve unfettered access between their financial markets after the Brexit transition period expires at the end of 2020.

    It is expected that there will be at least some increase in UK-EU regulatory barriers even if a deal is agreed by December. European firms can currently operate in the UK using their domestic regulatory clearances under the EU's passporting regime.

    The financial services sector plays a critical role in the UK economy, generating £75.5bn in tax contributions in the 12 months to March 2019.

    Interim approval would give EU firms an opportunity to complete the process of obtaining permanent clearance without needing to cease operating in the UK.

    A total of 228 Irish firms have applied for temporary permission to continue operating in the UK until they receive full clearance to set up shop in the UK after Brexit.

    Dublin acts as a financial services hub and has attracted several UK insurers, asset managers, banks and law firms to establish or expand their presence as part of their preparations for Brexit.

    Companies from France, Cyprus and Germany were the next biggest sources of applications, seeking 170, 165 and 149 temporary licences respectively, according to Bovill.

    “In practical terms, these figures mean that European firms will be buying office space, hiring staff and engaging legal and professional advisers in the UK,” said Ed O'Bree, a partner at Bovill."

    This is what I have always maintained would occur while the loonies on here thought it would only be an exodus from the UK. This latter has not happened either.

    Extra helpings of humble pie needed for the LMS on here.
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  • bompingtonbompington Posts: 6,887
    So, 1,441 companies have applied for permission to continue operating in the UK. That's not exactly an "influx of companies".

    I wonder if any haven't applied?
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 8,442

    So, 1,441 companies have applied for permission to continue operating in the UK. That's not exactly an "influx of companies".

    I wonder if any haven't applied?

    8,000 currently passport into the UK, so presumably 6,559 have not done so so far.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530
    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn

    Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.

    I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this? ;)
    We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.
    Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.

    So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    So, 1,441 companies have applied for permission to continue operating in the UK. That's not exactly an "influx of companies".

    I wonder if any haven't applied?

    Many UK FS companies had to establish a presence in the EU to guarantee carry on trading post Brexit. Previously they could supply these services without a local presence in the EU. The above is the reverse situation of EU companies establishing a presence in the UK - hence that statement about opening offices, employing people etc in the UK which is good for employment, the economy and tax revenues. Etc.
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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.

    They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.
    Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.
    It has the benefits I mentioned above.

    You could argue that the exisiting piles of regulation that companies have to deal with have the same benefits and disadvantages.
    This is more like an earthquake being positive for GDP because of the extra spending to clear up afterwards. That doesn't make it a good thing.
    Not exactly. It's a benefit that offsets the outward movements.

    Or maybe there is too much regulation which we now have an opportunity to reduce?
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  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 15,734
    edited 21 January
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn

    Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.

    I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this? ;)
    We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.
    Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.

    So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
    Depends on that orderly exit, doesn't it. And those two aren't mutually exclusive. Do you know what the margin of error is on that forecast?

    The duplication of FS offices might bring some more clients my way, but construction costs look likely to go up even more.
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  • bompingtonbompington Posts: 6,887
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn

    Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.

    I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this? ;)
    We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.
    Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.

    So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
    But forecasts....
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn

    Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.

    I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this? ;)
    We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.
    Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.

    So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
    But forecasts....
    I was asking people who claim to know.
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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530
    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn

    Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.

    I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this? ;)
    We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.
    Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.

    So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
    Depends on that orderly exit, doesn't it. And those two aren't mutually exclusive. Do you know what the margin of error is on that forecast?

    The duplication of FS offices might bring some more clients my way, but construction costs look likely to go up even more.
    Sure does. There is a decent chance of that, but regardless it doesnt say a lot about the EU does it?
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 44,422 Lives Here
    Why what does it say about the EU?
  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 15,734
    edited 21 January

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.

    Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
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  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 15,734
    edited 21 January
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    It's not doing very well.
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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530
    rjsterry said:

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.

    Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
    True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....
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  • Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.

    Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
    True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....
    What a bizarre last sentence
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 44,422 Lives Here
    I had quick look at the OBR numbers and hours worked in the UK was up more than GDP, which suggests productivity and earnings per hour went down...
  • briantrumpetbriantrumpet Posts: 3,975
    edited 22 January

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.

    Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
    True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....
    What a bizarre last sentence

    We've had that sentiment several times before, always without evidence.
  • I had quick look at the OBR numbers and hours worked in the UK was up more than GDP, which suggests productivity and earnings per hour went down...

    All good points but no need to get that granular. Long-term norm is 2-2.5%, the aspiration is 3%+.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.

    Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
    True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....
    What a bizarre last sentence

    We've had that sentiment several times before, always without evidence.
    Rolf was honest enough to say a while back that he wanted it to go badly so we would then want to rejoin. And the sentiment of some of you - if not stated explicitly - is that you want to say 'I told you so'. Which requires a bad outcome.

    Do you want Brexit to go well?
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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 37,530

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.

    Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
    True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....
    What a bizarre last sentence
    Do you want Brexit to go well?
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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 44,422 Lives Here
    edited 22 January
    Ja sure but the earnings stagnation is, I would argue, the bigger political issue affecting more people, rather than the overall GDP number, and that shows no sign of abating.

    It's basically like Japan for the last decade, albeit with more immigration to make the headline figure look better.
  • haydenmhaydenm Posts: 2,830
    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Why what does it say about the EU?

    Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.

    Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
    True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....
    What a bizarre last sentence

    We've had that sentiment several times before, always without evidence.
    Rolf was honest enough to say a while back that he wanted it to go badly so we would then want to rejoin. And the sentiment of some of you - if not stated explicitly - is that you want to say 'I told you so'. Which requires a bad outcome.

    Do you want Brexit to go well?
    Does the answer matter? Unless I'm the governor of the BoE or someone important then probably not.

    Leavers were the ones with the sunlit uplands rubbish, as the people proposing major change the burden of proof is on them. Just because the negatives haven't happened (yet) doesn't mean it wasn't right to consider the risk.

    Imagine if me and the OH were arguing about taking in a violent rescue dog, it might be excellent or it might eat us. Even if it turns out to be the second best dog ever and continue our current dog's lineage forever more it wasn't a mistake for me to say no because it might eat us.

    Also, it's not necessarily accurate to directly equate our growth with the EU's growth and say because we are both doing badly Brexit had no impact. If we suddenly started doing really badly compared to everyone else then it might be a sign that Brexit was a bad idea though.

    We are very small, the potential impact on us is likely to be a lot larger than them and if our measures in 15 years time show that long term we have done significantly worse than the EU then I will say 'I told you so'. If not then happy days! ;)
  • ballysmateballysmate Posts: 13,552
    I think that is probably one for the NO column Stevo.
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