BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

Stevo_666

rjsterry wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

Did that statement from no. 10 sound to you remotely like the sort of thing Merkel would say?

They might as well have held up a note in Johnson's own handwriting and claimed they'd received it from Merkel.

Agree, this is very much not Merkel's (or Germany's) style when it comes to Brexit and public communications. They have been pretty diplomatic and careful not to 'stir things up'.

However regardless of who said what we are yet to see any sign of the EU budging on anything. As BB mentions above, if this does have any basis, could it be German trying to put pressure on other member states to shift? Let's see what if anything Germany says in response to this.

You really think Johnson's proposals were a sincere attempt to reach a compromise? I think this is all just a prelude to a manufactured showdown in parliament, an A50 extension and a GE. It'll be months before there is any significant movement on resolving Brexit.

Maybe, but it represented movement on our side. What has the EU moved on?

john80

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

We could all stay in the Customs Union. I'd bet the majority of the country don't really care one way or the other. Party policy is the only thing saying this is absolutely unacceptable.

This is short sighted and i think a fair amount of the public are wary of permanent custom union alignment or worse still locked in a permanent backstop.

rjsterry

john80 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

We could all stay in the Customs Union. I'd bet the majority of the country don't really care one way or the other. Party policy is the only thing saying this is absolutely unacceptable.

This is short sighted and i think a fair amount of the public are wary of permanent custom union alignment or worse still locked in a permanent backstop.

Got anything to back that claim up? For the vast majority Customs are somebody else's problem.

TheBigBean

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

One random hypothesis is that this was Merkel putting pressure on other EU member states.

Did that statement from no. 10 sound to you remotely like the sort of thing Merkel would say?

They might as well have held up a note in Johnson's own handwriting and claimed they'd received it from Merkel.

I don't think Laura Kuenssberg's tweet sounds implausible. Other than that they spoke it is all speculation.

Put yourself in Merkel's shoes - what is her best move?

imposter2.0

john80 wrote:

This is short sighted and i think a fair amount of the public are wary of permanent custom union alignment or worse still locked in a permanent backstop.

What, you mean like the one we've already had for the last 45+ years? Up until three years ago, literally nobody (apart from Farage and a handful of other self-interested charlatans) was moaning about this.

TheBigBean

rjsterry wrote:

john80 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

We could all stay in the Customs Union. I'd bet the majority of the country don't really care one way or the other. Party policy is the only thing saying this is absolutely unacceptable.

This is short sighted and i think a fair amount of the public are wary of permanent custom union alignment or worse still locked in a permanent backstop.

Got anything to back that claim up? For the vast majority Customs are somebody else's problem.

That can't be true, because I understand it is a major issue if there is one between NI and ROI.

rjsterry

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

john80 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

We could all stay in the Customs Union. I'd bet the majority of the country don't really care one way or the other. Party policy is the only thing saying this is absolutely unacceptable.

This is short sighted and i think a fair amount of the public are wary of permanent custom union alignment or worse still locked in a permanent backstop.

Got anything to back that claim up? For the vast majority Customs are somebody else's problem.

That can't be true, because I understand it is a major issue if there is one between NI and ROI.

I should clarify that as the vast majority in England and Wales. Even in NI, it's the checks and infrastructure that are the issue, as far as I understand it. Undoubtedly it has now to some extent become an identity issue. That the Customs regime is currently set by the EU alone makes it a good/bad thing depending on which tribe you belong to.

Longshot

Stevo 666 wrote:

Maybe, but it represented movement on our side. What has the EU moved on?

Politics aside for a moment, since when has there been a necessity for "movement" in a negotiation?

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

john80 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏Verified account @bbclaurak

1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'

So permanent backstop is the only deal being offered. Not a great look, but I imagine that feelings on this will be split two ways as usual.

We could all stay in the Customs Union. I'd bet the majority of the country don't really care one way or the other. Party policy is the only thing saying this is absolutely unacceptable.

This is short sighted and i think a fair amount of the public are wary of permanent custom union alignment or worse still locked in a permanent backstop.

Got anything to back that claim up? For the vast majority Customs are somebody else's problem.

That can't be true, because I understand it is a major issue if there is one between NI and ROI.

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Longshot

Surrey Commuter wrote:

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Well Boris has helped them to get halfway there.

rjsterry

A prediction from July 25th.

https://mobile.twitter.com/syrpis/statu ... 7699005440

So far, Johnson is following this pretty closely. Friendly approach to EU to start, then angry blame when they reject the thing designed to be rejected.

Key point is that he has no intention of leaving without a deal, but will manufacture a scenario where it appears that he would have done if it weren't for parliament. In that sense, the Benn Act is actually playing into his hands as it perfectly fits this false narrative.

rjsterry

Farmers not happy about the new post-Brexit tariffs published today.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry wrote:

Farmers not happy about the new post-Brexit tariffs published today.

woohoo

then again they are hard coded to never be happy

how miserable and demanding would be DUP farmer be??

rjsterry

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Farmers not happy about the new post-Brexit tariffs published today.

woohoo

then again they are hard coded to never be happy

how miserable and demanding would be DUP farmer be??

Nor UK HGV or clothing manufacturers I would imagine.

I know, I know. They should all be in FS and we should just import EVERYTHING.

Jez mon

Longshot wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Well Boris has helped them to get halfway there.

What % of the electorate, pre referendum, thought of the single market, the customs union and the EU as being three separate concepts.

orraloon

Jez mon wrote:

Longshot wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Well Boris has helped them to get halfway there.

What % of the electorate, pre referendum, thought of the single market, the customs union and the EU as being three separate concepts.

What % of the electorate can spell any of those three entities, even with the words written down in front of them?

surrey_commuter

orraloon wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

Longshot wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Well Boris has helped them to get halfway there.

What % of the electorate, pre referendum, thought of the single market, the customs union and the EU as being three separate concepts.

What % of the electorate can spell any of those three entities, even with the words written down in front of them?

Longshot should be getting major Kudos for his comment

bradsbeard

I'll be happy if my new Canyon is tariff free!

rjsterry

Jez mon wrote:

Longshot wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Well Boris has helped them to get halfway there.

What % of the electorate, pre referendum, thought of the single market, the customs union and the EU as being three separate concepts.

Or even post-referendum.

Longshot

Surrey Commuter wrote:

orraloon wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

Longshot wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Well Boris has helped them to get halfway there.

What % of the electorate, pre referendum, thought of the single market, the customs union and the EU as being three separate concepts.

What % of the electorate can spell any of those three entities, even with the words written down in front of them?

Longshot should be getting major Kudos for his comment

I was wondering if anyone would pick up on it...

surrey_commuter

rjsterry wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Farmers not happy about the new post-Brexit tariffs published today.

woohoo

then again they are hard coded to never be happy

how miserable and demanding would be DUP farmer be??

Nor UK HGV or clothing manufacturers I would imagine.

I know, I know. They should all be in FS and we should just import EVERYTHING.

FS is going to get fvcked the hardest but how and why is beyond the understanding of most and it does not count as they aren't real jobs

rick_chasey

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Farmers not happy about the new post-Brexit tariffs published today.

woohoo

then again they are hard coded to never be happy

how miserable and demanding would be DUP farmer be??

Nor UK HGV or clothing manufacturers I would imagine.

I know, I know. They should all be in FS and we should just import EVERYTHING.

FS is going to get fvcked the hardest but how and why is beyond the understanding of most and it does not count as they aren't real jobs

Is pretty quiet now across the City re-hiring.

haydenm

We seem to be hiring compliance people every 30 seconds at the moment...

rjsterry

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Farmers not happy about the new post-Brexit tariffs published today.

woohoo

then again they are hard coded to never be happy

how miserable and demanding would be DUP farmer be??

Nor UK HGV or clothing manufacturers I would imagine.

I know, I know. They should all be in FS and we should just import EVERYTHING.

FS is going to get fvcked the hardest but how and why is beyond the understanding of most and it does not count as they aren't real jobs

Could we agree that a job is a job, regardless of what proportion of GDP is attributable to that sector?

TheBigBean

Surrey Commuter wrote:

FS is going to get fvcked the hardest but how and why is beyond the understanding of most and it does not count as they aren't real jobs

The amount cleared through LCH and its market share has increased over the last few years. Plus it seems that everyone has dispatched a minion to some EU country to continue in the event of any loss of passporting. Amsterdam seems popular. Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris far less so. Furthermore, flags of convenience still seem to be possible.

TheBigBean

HaydenM wrote:

We seem to be hiring compliance people every 30 seconds at the moment...

Sadly, they cost a fortune. £200k pa - if there are any kids out there after high risk, utterly tedious career moves.

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Farmers not happy about the new post-Brexit tariffs published today.

woohoo

then again they are hard coded to never be happy

how miserable and demanding would be DUP farmer be??

Nor UK HGV or clothing manufacturers I would imagine.

I know, I know. They should all be in FS and we should just import EVERYTHING.

FS is going to get fvcked the hardest but how and why is beyond the understanding of most and it does not count as they aren't real jobs

Is pretty quiet now across the City re-hiring.

I was thinking more long-term as the EU chips away at the jewel in our crown

rjsterry

Still, on the upside, there's a potential £7.5bn market of form filling to be taken advantage of.

TheBigBean

rjsterry wrote:

Still, on the upside, there's a potential £7.5bn market of form filling to be taken advantage of.

That's the spirit, and it all adds to the GDP.

pblakeney

rjsterry wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

Longshot wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

what % of the UK electorate do you think have a reasonable understanding of what a CU is?

Well Boris has helped them to get halfway there.

What % of the electorate, pre referendum, thought of the single market, the customs union and the EU as being three separate concepts.

Or even post-referendum.

Well, my Brexit voting father still thinks they are one and the same for one.