BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    It is going to be easy to negotiate (in six months) the first trade deal that will allow for the two parties reducing alignment
  • Stevo_666 said:

    Does that mean an extension to the withdrawal agreement is expected in the event of a Conservative win?

    Also, how times change "Results from across the country suggesting the Brexit camp was on the brink of declaring a referendum victory led to sterling reversing initial gains to leave the pound down more than 10% at $1.33, compared with $1.50 just after polling stations closed. That was the lowest since 1985."

    Who knows, but if it means Corbyn wont be in that has to be good news. And in the basis that Sterling going down was seen to be bad by people on here then Sterling going up is good, no? Or is it just bad whichever way it goes in your view?
    If you read anything into it, it means that the markets in general think that the UK have a more certain future under a Conservative government, and that it is about as bad as they thought it would be three years ago. Under Labour, they thought it would be more uncertain, and probably worse for whatever it is moves the markets.

    I don't know much about what it is that moves the currency markets beyond the traders not liking uncertainty.
    think of it as long term trends - ie strike oil and pound will rise as the UK economy will be predicted to strengthen relative to other economies. Voting to leave the EU is predicted to weaken the UK economy relative to other economies.
    Within the long-term trend you have fluctuations based upon short-term factors which are accentuated by traders trying to make a quick buck.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    none of those deals include services so not much use to us as a template. Moving away from alignment has to be more complicated.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475

    Stevo_666 said:

    Does that mean an extension to the withdrawal agreement is expected in the event of a Conservative win?

    Also, how times change "Results from across the country suggesting the Brexit camp was on the brink of declaring a referendum victory led to sterling reversing initial gains to leave the pound down more than 10% at $1.33, compared with $1.50 just after polling stations closed. That was the lowest since 1985."

    Who knows, but if it means Corbyn wont be in that has to be good news. And in the basis that Sterling going down was seen to be bad by people on here then Sterling going up is good, no? Or is it just bad whichever way it goes in your view?
    If you read anything into it, it means that the markets in general think that the UK have a more certain future under a Conservative government, and that it is about as bad as they thought it would be three years ago. Under Labour, they thought it would be more uncertain, and probably worse for whatever it is moves the markets.

    I don't know much about what it is that moves the currency markets beyond the traders not liking uncertainty.
    Uncertainty itself does not necessarily move markets, it will depend. There are other factors such as the underlying economy, interest rates etc.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,638
    Well there's definitely a load of pony in there somewhere.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    100% pony according to all the experts.

    Makes sense when you consider they are setting rules and regs and one side has no idea where they will be in ten years time.

    And so we get back to the same question, is it at all feasible that Boris is so thick as to believe it will be easy.
  • Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475
    edited December 2019

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
    I didn't say that. My point was in a nutshell 'where there's a will there's a way'. Which admittedly is not easy to get across here because there is very little will in Cake Stop.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,612
    edited December 2019
    WA hasn't been fully agreed yet, has it?

    So far the negotiations have been going for 3 years.
  • I
    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
    I didn't say that. My point was in a nutshell 'where there's a will there's a way'. Which admittedly is not easy to get across here because there is very little will in Cake Stop.
    Your track record of how to succeed with Brexit is not good
    Be optimistic
    5th largest economy
    Split the other side
    German carmakers
    They need us more than we need them
    Be positive

    Now we need to sort out a trade deal why don’t you make some positive suggestions on how to get a good outcome
  • As some of you may be aware I have been flagging up the impending demise of the WTO. To make it more real I can confirm that from next Wednesday it will effectively cease to function.
    As this has been caused by Trump and can only be solved by Trump it seems to be a strange time to be relying on membership of the WTO
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,593


    100% pony according to all the experts.

    Is Sir Ivan one of those experts? He's been saying that for years at his various money making events.

    I don't think it will be easy to agree a FTA, but it will be much easier starting from a position of alignment. For example, does the UK require the right to start clear cutting virgin forests in order to sell wood into the EU? Or would the UK willingly concede that point?
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475

    I

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
    I didn't say that. My point was in a nutshell 'where there's a will there's a way'. Which admittedly is not easy to get across here because there is very little will in Cake Stop.
    Your track record of how to succeed with Brexit is not good
    Be optimistic
    5th largest economy
    Split the other side
    German carmakers
    They need us more than we need them
    Be positive

    Now we need to sort out a trade deal why don’t you make some positive suggestions on how to get a good outcome
    Your honorary membership of the LMS is in the post.

    The EU trade deals with the likes of Canada, Japan etc were not done from a starting point of alignment were they?

    It will be down to hard negotiation but as above, it is pretty important that both parties want to achieve it. That is pretty obvious.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475

    WA hasn't been fully agreed yet, has it?

    So far the negotiations have been going for 3 years.

    Just some pesky parliamentary approval to go? It's likely that will be solved soon...
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,638
    Stevo_666 said:

    I

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
    I didn't say that. My point was in a nutshell 'where there's a will there's a way'. Which admittedly is not easy to get across here because there is very little will in Cake Stop.
    Your track record of how to succeed with Brexit is not good
    Be optimistic
    5th largest economy
    Split the other side
    German carmakers
    They need us more than we need them
    Be positive

    Now we need to sort out a trade deal why don’t you make some positive suggestions on how to get a good outcome
    Your honorary membership of the LMS is in the post.

    The EU trade deals with the likes of Canada, Japan etc were not done from a starting point of alignment were they?

    It will be down to hard negotiation but as above, it is pretty important that both parties want to achieve it. That is pretty obvious.
    It's not at all clear that the Conservative party - or at least a majority of that party - can agree what they want to achieve.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,612
    Stevo_666 said:

    WA hasn't been fully agreed yet, has it?

    So far the negotiations have been going for 3 years.

    Just some pesky parliamentary approval to go? It's likely that will be solved soon...
    So easy to get done it's on its second iteration and has seen off two elections before its completion, the second one having to be held in order to get it passed.

    It doesn't sound particularly fast to me or easy to me, and this was supposed to be the easy part of the negotiations.
  • Some people need to have more positive thinking about Corbyn's agenda. Where there's a will, there's a way.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475

    Stevo_666 said:

    WA hasn't been fully agreed yet, has it?

    So far the negotiations have been going for 3 years.

    Just some pesky parliamentary approval to go? It's likely that will be solved soon...
    So easy to get done it's on its second iteration and has seen off two elections before its completion, the second one having to be held in order to get it passed.

    It doesn't sound particularly fast to me or easy to me, and this was supposed to be the easy part of the negotiations.
    That's in the past now - and on the balance of probabilities the WA should be getting passed if the GE result is as expected. Sounds like you're still in a bit of denial about it even over 3 years on from the referendum.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475
    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    I

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
    I didn't say that. My point was in a nutshell 'where there's a will there's a way'. Which admittedly is not easy to get across here because there is very little will in Cake Stop.
    Your track record of how to succeed with Brexit is not good
    Be optimistic
    5th largest economy
    Split the other side
    German carmakers
    They need us more than we need them
    Be positive

    Now we need to sort out a trade deal why don’t you make some positive suggestions on how to get a good outcome
    Your honorary membership of the LMS is in the post.

    The EU trade deals with the likes of Canada, Japan etc were not done from a starting point of alignment were they?

    It will be down to hard negotiation but as above, it is pretty important that both parties want to achieve it. That is pretty obvious.
    It's not at all clear that the Conservative party - or at least a majority of that party - can agree what they want to achieve.
    I think you're more hoping than forecasting - the point I made above was that when both parties wanted to get something done and the pressure was on, they got there (and we just need to ratify). But we'll just have to see. This time next week we may have a better idea of where things are headed.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475
    edited December 2019

    Some people need to have more positive thinking about Corbyn's agenda. Where there's a will, there's a way.

    Here's some positive thinking if he gets in - look at all the special EU deals on offer for when wealth creators and the financially successful pack their bags and head for somewhere more amenable :)
    https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/06/dont-want-corbyn-take-money-pack-bags-greece-desperate-rich/

    Greece, Italy, Cyprus or Malta?

    And a very good example of tax competition that so many on here seem to stick their head in the sand about (this time it is competition for individuals rather than corporates, but the principle is the same).

    But maybe not France:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/05/france-shutdown-pension-strikes-halt-trains-shut-schools-hit/
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • LMS
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,638
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    I

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
    I didn't say that. My point was in a nutshell 'where there's a will there's a way'. Which admittedly is not easy to get across here because there is very little will in Cake Stop.
    Your track record of how to succeed with Brexit is not good
    Be optimistic
    5th largest economy
    Split the other side
    German carmakers
    They need us more than we need them
    Be positive

    Now we need to sort out a trade deal why don’t you make some positive suggestions on how to get a good outcome
    Your honorary membership of the LMS is in the post.

    The EU trade deals with the likes of Canada, Japan etc were not done from a starting point of alignment were they?

    It will be down to hard negotiation but as above, it is pretty important that both parties want to achieve it. That is pretty obvious.
    It's not at all clear that the Conservative party - or at least a majority of that party - can agree what they want to achieve.
    I think you're more hoping than forecasting - the point I made above was that when both parties wanted to get something done and the pressure was on, they got there (and we just need to ratify). But we'll just have to see. This time next week we may have a better idea of where things are headed.
    I was talking about the FTA, not the WAB. I'm assuming the latter will get passed, but even that is provisional. There are provisions for parliamentary oversight of the FTA negotiations in the WAB. Different bits of the Tories want very different things from the FTA, let alone the rest of parliament. I can't see the a small majority bringing about a sudden bout of discipline in the ranks now that the ERG have got a taste for wagging the dog.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475

    Losing Mentality Squad

    A phrase I coined a while back about the excessively negative 'we're doomed' etc type viewpoint displayed on this thread and the Labour Party thread also. Although in reality a lot of it may be down to the frustration of the sufferers not having their chosen party in power for a long time.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,475
    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    I

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The current position of the Conservatives is that any trade deal will be easy because we are currently aligned in every way, which only makes sense if we are going to stay aligned, which is completely at odds with the justification for Brexit.

    Don't think so - staying in the single market for example requires that. Whereas trade deals that the EU have done with say Canada, Japan, S. Korea have not relied on alignment to 'make it easy'.

    So is starting from a point of alignment making it easier a load of pony then?
    The main thing is whether the two parties really want to get a trade deal done - as showed when the revised WA was hammered out in fairly short order.

    But well done on finding the pessimistic viewpoint.

    Why do you think that moving away from alignment will be easier than moving towards it.

    WA revision was Boris going back on red lines and agreeing to previous EU suggestions. So yes if Boris sets himself a hard deadline and then agrees to the deal the EU present to him then it is entirely possible
    I didn't say that. My point was in a nutshell 'where there's a will there's a way'. Which admittedly is not easy to get across here because there is very little will in Cake Stop.
    Your track record of how to succeed with Brexit is not good
    Be optimistic
    5th largest economy
    Split the other side
    German carmakers
    They need us more than we need them
    Be positive

    Now we need to sort out a trade deal why don’t you make some positive suggestions on how to get a good outcome
    Your honorary membership of the LMS is in the post.

    The EU trade deals with the likes of Canada, Japan etc were not done from a starting point of alignment were they?

    It will be down to hard negotiation but as above, it is pretty important that both parties want to achieve it. That is pretty obvious.
    It's not at all clear that the Conservative party - or at least a majority of that party - can agree what they want to achieve.
    I think you're more hoping than forecasting - the point I made above was that when both parties wanted to get something done and the pressure was on, they got there (and we just need to ratify). But we'll just have to see. This time next week we may have a better idea of where things are headed.
    I was talking about the FTA, not the WAB. I'm assuming the latter will get passed, but even that is provisional. There are provisions for parliamentary oversight of the FTA negotiations in the WAB. Different bits of the Tories want very different things from the FTA, let alone the rest of parliament. I can't see the a small majority bringing about a sudden bout of discipline in the ranks now that the ERG have got a taste for wagging the dog.
    Well let's see. Starting with how the parliamentary land lies next Friday.

    The reality that if we want to get it done, then it requires some compromise has even filtered through to the Brexit party recently.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    Stevo_666 said:

    Although in reality a lot of it may be down to the frustration of the sufferers not having their chosen party in power for a long time.

    That would be me. As a life-long Conservative Party voter, I have no idea when they'll get back and take power back from the Brexit Party currently holding the throne.

    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    Longshot said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Although in reality a lot of it may be down to the frustration of the sufferers not having their chosen party in power for a long time.

    That would be me. As a life-long Conservative Party voter, I have no idea when they'll get back and take power back from the Brexit Party currently holding the throne.

    This.

    But as long as it's wearing a blue shirt, it'll always be Stevo's beloved Chelsea Tories.
  • Stevo_666 said:

    Losing Mentality Squad

    A phrase I coined a while back about the excessively negative 'we're doomed' etc type viewpoint displayed on this thread and the Labour Party thread also. Although in reality a lot of it may be down to the frustration of the sufferers not having their chosen party in power for a long time.
    But you seem to think we would be doomed by Corbyn and his exciting proposals. Look for the positives!