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Cav and Tour de San Luis

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  • prawny wrote:
    @ greased, it probably did, but that was one put of how many sprint stages?

    Not sure what you mean there?
  • prawnyprawny Posts: 5,414
    prawny wrote:
    @ greased, it probably did, but that was one put of how many sprint stages?

    Not sure what you mean there?

    Sorry should have been one OUT of how many stages, by which I mean, greipel and cav beat him more often than not in the straight up sprints. Sagan isn't a top sprinter IMO.
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  • prawny wrote:
    Sorry should have been one OUT of how many stages, by which I mean, greipel and cav beat him more often than not in the straight up sprints. Sagan isn't a top sprinter IMO.

    Yes, I agree. In a straight up flat stage sprint, Sagan would be beaten by Cavendish and maybe Greipel. But when you look at the flat stage sprints from last year's race, Sagan's worst finish, apart from Stage 5 where he crashed, was 6th. That's pretty good for someone who's not really a sprinter. He's far more consistant than Greipel.

    Stage 2 ~ Cavendish 1st - Griepel 2nd Sagan 6th
    Stage 4 ~ Greipel 1st - Sagan 5th - Cavendish 188th (Cavendish crash)
    Stage 5 ~ Greipel 1st - Cavendish 5th - Sagan 152nd (Sagan crash)
    Stage 6 ~ Sagan 1st - Greipel 2nd - Cavendish 123rd (Greipel crash, Cavendish puncture)
    Stage 13 ~ Greipel 1st - Sagan 2nd - Cavendish 67th (Sky worked for EBH)
    Stage 18 ~ Cavendish 1st - Sagan 3rd - Greipel 11th
    Stage 20 ~ Cavendish 1st - Sagan 2nd - Greipel 8th

    But then looking at those finishes, add in another 2 stage wins, the 6th he got on stage 12 and 2nd on stage 14, it's very difficult to see where Cavendish (or anyone else) would have beaten Sagan.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 24,088
    But then looking at those finishes, add in another 2 stage wins, the 6th he got on stage 12 and 2nd on stage 14, it's very difficult to see where Cavendish (or anyone else) would have beaten Sagan.

    If you look at the 200 points that Sagan beat Cavendish by: Cavendish stop sprinting for lower places and intermediate sprints after week 1, Sagan didn't: he picked up 100 more points right there. Sagan was in a breakaway late on (won by Sanchez) stop that happening and he loses 30-40 pts. If Cavendish doesn't crash (something he rarely did with a dedictated team) then he can pick up another two wins - 90pts.

    So that's 200 points made up.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95 wrote:
    If you look at the 200 points that Sagan beat Cavendish by: Cavendish stop sprinting for lower places and intermediate sprints after week 1, Sagan didn't: he picked up 100 more points right there. Sagan was in a breakaway late on (won by Sanchez) stop that happening and he loses 30-40 pts. If Cavendish doesn't crash (something he rarely did with a dedictated team) then he can pick up another two wins - 90pts.

    So that's 200 points made up.

    Eh? How come Cavendish picks up two wins for crashing once? In that case Sagan can pick up another two wins for his crash on stage 5.

    Also I'm not sure how OPQS are going to stop Sagan getting in a break on a mountain stage, HTC weren't able to stop Hushovd doing much the same thing in 2009.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 24,088
    RichN95 wrote:
    If you look at the 200 points that Sagan beat Cavendish by: Cavendish stop sprinting for lower places and intermediate sprints after week 1, Sagan didn't: he picked up 100 more points right there. Sagan was in a breakaway late on (won by Sanchez) stop that happening and he loses 30-40 pts. If Cavendish doesn't crash (something he rarely did with a dedictated team) then he can pick up another two wins - 90pts.

    So that's 200 points made up.

    Eh? How come Cavendish picks up two wins for crashing once? In that case Sagan can pick up another two wins for his crash on stage 5.

    Also I'm not sure how OPQS are going to stop Sagan getting in a break on a mountain stage, HTC weren't able to stop Hushovd doing much the same thing in 2009.
    OK. One crash, one puncture - it's still two missed opportunities.

    And they stop Sagan getting in the break by sitting on the front of the peloton in the early parts of the stage and chasing him down any time he makes a move. He's not Pantani and OPQS don't have to worry about their own finishing times. It's not that difficult. They managed it with both Gilbert and Rojas in 2011. Hushovd they didn't expect and got caught out.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95 wrote:
    OK. One crash, one puncture - it's still two missed opportunities.

    And Sagan crashed on stage 5, so that's a missed opportunity for him.
    RichN95 wrote:
    And they stop Sagan getting in the break by sitting on the front of the peloton in the early parts of the stage and chasing him down any time he makes a move. He's not Pantani and OPQS don't have to worry about their own finishing times. It's not that difficult. They managed it with both Gilbert and Rojas in 2011. Hushovd they didn't expect and got caught out.

    Hushovd's gained points on two mountain stages 2009, one in the Pyrenees and one in the Alps, so I don't see how it's unexpected. One attack maybe, but the second? They should have seen that one coming. And even so, just because they didn't expect it, doesn't stop them chasing it down. Or maybe they couldn't.

    If Sagan had the entire Liquigas team at his disposal (which he might have this year, Nibali gone to Astana and Basso targeting the Giro) they could have chased down the break on stage 12 and picked up 20 points for the intermediate and 30 at the finish.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 24,088

    If Sagan had the entire Liquigas team at his disposal (which he might have this year, Nibali gone to Astana and Basso targeting the Giro) they could have chased down the break on stage 12 and picked up 20 points for the intermediate and 30 at the finish.

    You think they are going to chance down every attack in the first 50-100km? Good luck with that one.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95 wrote:

    If Sagan had the entire Liquigas team at his disposal (which he might have this year, Nibali gone to Astana and Basso targeting the Giro) they could have chased down the break on stage 12 and picked up 20 points for the intermediate and 30 at the finish.

    You think they are going to chance down every attack in the first 50-100km? Good luck with that one.


    Ambulance for the Leaky boys!
  • RichN95 wrote:
    You think they are going to chance down every attack in the first 50-100km? Good luck with that one.

    No, that isn't what I said. I've picked out one stage where they could, not all of them. Do you not think they could have brought back that break? Medium mountain stage so it's fair to assume Cavendish won't be at the finish to get any points.
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 24,088
    RichN95 wrote:
    You think they are going to chance down every attack in the first 50-100km? Good luck with that one.

    No, that isn't what I said. I've picked out one stage where they could, not all of them. Do you not think they could have brought back that break? Medium mountain stage so it's fair to assume Cavendish won't be at the finish to get any points.
    Have you seen how the break is formed on those medium mountain stages? It's not like the flat stages where four Frenchman attack after 5k and that's that. There's an hour or two of full on racing - attacking and catching. By the time the break goes everyone's knackered. It's straightforward to stop a specific rider getting in a break, but stopping any break going or trying to catch it later is a whole different matter.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95 wrote:
    Have you seen how the break is formed on those medium mountain stages? It's not like the flat stages where four Frenchman attack after 5k and that's that. There's an hour or two of full on racing - attacking and catching. By the time the break goes everyone's knackered. It's straightforward to stop a specific rider getting in a break, but stopping any break going or trying to catch it later is a whole different matter.

    And have you seen any flat stages? Sometimes they will race for an hour or so before it gets away. There really isn't any difference in how a break is formed depending on stage type. It really just depends on what happens on the day. Can depend on all sorts of things.

    But do you really think it's impossible for a team to chase back a break on one medium mountain stage?
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 15,510
    A_66abQCEAA4RM3.jpg
    Believe that a farther shore
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    Believe in miracles
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  • Cav and Boonen are in that first flush of Twitter buddydom...

    Did make me smile though - Cav's got to do and climb every mountain at the Tour de San Luis cos Tommeke's behind with his training programme before the desert action, and Tommeke's been raving about his NYE at some techno club :wink:
  • Ron StuartRon Stuart Posts: 1,242
    He may have been told to loose the love handles....36490_10151403400479524_620023857_n.jpg:wink:
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 15,510
    Ron Stuart wrote:
    He may have been told to loose the love handles :wink:

    I quite like Cav. I'm not a hater......but.....he looks like someone on the team brought their mate the plasterer along for the ride out.
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • calmx5calmx5 Posts: 229
    Ron Stuart wrote:
    He may have been told to loose the love handles :wink:

    I quite like Cav. I'm not a hater......but.....he looks like someone on the team brought their mate the plasterer along for the ride out.
    Yeah.............

    But then he goes does this.
    t31_RTR354JA.jpg

    Although, in this picture it looks like he has hard gas. :D
  • Nick FittNick Fitt Posts: 381
    Sagan is 22, that's some talent to grow into a mightily impressive rider. For me its hard to see him not becoming an awesome '1 day' rider.

    Re San Luis, I think Boonen will get more from racing in the wind in Qatar in preparation for the Classics and Cavendish should do pretty well too. There are a few 1st cat climbs/finishes and my guess is the data the team gets from his meters will be a darned useful view of life in preparation for the summer. Seems pretty harmonious to me, cant see any conflict.
  • Nick Fitt wrote:
    Sagan is 22, that's some talent to grow into a mightily impressive rider. For me its hard to see him not becoming an awesome '1 day' rider.

    Re San Luis, I think Boonen will get more from racing in the wind in Qatar in preparation for the Classics and Cavendish should do pretty well too. There are a few 1st cat climbs/finishes and my guess is the data the team gets from his meters will be a darned useful view of life in preparation for the summer. Seems pretty harmonious to me, cant see any conflict.


    Bah, you're no fun :wink:
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,743 Lives Here
    Boonen is a bigger priority for QS at the moment. Cav is there mainly for GT presence. Boonen needs to be in pretty reasonable shape by March so he can peak early April.
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 15,510
    Boonen is a bigger priority for QS at the moment. Cav is there mainly for GT presence. Boonen needs to be in pretty reasonable shape by March so he can peak early April.

    'You be the DS'

    1 Who gets priority treatment for MSR?*

    2 Will Boonen ride the TDF and will he act as a lead out man for Cav?






    *wishy-washy answer won't be accepted...
    Believe that a farther shore
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    Believe in miracles
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  • talking of QuickSteppers...what's this about Maes breaking his collarbone in training?
  • 'You be the DS'

    1 Who gets priority treatment for MSR?*

    2 Will Boonen ride the TDF and will he act as a lead out man for Cav?






    *wishy-washy answer won't be accepted...

    1) Neither. I would give Boonen a free role to try and get into any attacks he can. If he can't, everyone works for a Cavendish bunch sprint.

    2) If he want's to, but he will not act as lead out but be given a free role, similar to MSR.
  • sherersherer Posts: 2,430
    so if MSR the only classic that Cav stands a chance of winning ?
  • iainf72iainf72 Posts: 15,782
    sherer wrote:
    so if MSR the only classic that Cav stands a chance of winning ?

    Yes.

    Although I remain unconvinced he'll repeat in it. Teams know he will win if he gets to the final, so they'll try get rid of him earlier
    Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.
  • sherersherer Posts: 2,430
    iainf72 wrote:
    sherer wrote:
    so if MSR the only classic that Cav stands a chance of winning ?

    Yes.

    Although I remain unconvinced he'll repeat in it. Teams know he will win if he gets to the final, so they'll try get rid of him earlier

    What if Cav lost a bit of his top end speed, do you think he could then win a Roubaix or Flanders ?
  • Nick FittNick Fitt Posts: 381
    sherer wrote:
    so if MSR the only classic that Cav stands a chance of winning ?

    And assuming Sagan isnt there :wink:
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 50,743 Lives Here
    Boonen is a bigger priority for QS at the moment. Cav is there mainly for GT presence. Boonen needs to be in pretty reasonable shape by March so he can peak early April.

    'You be the DS'

    1 Who gets priority treatment for MSR?*

    2 Will Boonen ride the TDF and will he act as a lead out man for Cav?


    Assign one man to Cav, one to Boonen. If Cav makes it to the Poggio with the front group, everyone rides for him.

    As soon as Cav is dropped (before Poggio) all riding is for Tom. General race tactics are to ride for sprint finish regardless of who does the sprinting for QS.

    Tom wont do the TdF. He hates it.
  • ddraverddraver Posts: 20,522
    Boonen is a bigger priority for QS at the moment. Cav is there mainly for GT presence. Boonen needs to be in pretty reasonable shape by March so he can peak early April.

    This

    By the start of the Giro, Tom will be back in Ballen with his feet up for the year...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Richmond RacerRichmond Racer Posts: 8,561
    edited January 2013
    Boonen is a bigger priority for QS at the moment. Cav is there mainly for GT presence. Boonen needs to be in pretty reasonable shape by March so he can peak early April.

    'You be the DS'

    1 Who gets priority treatment for MSR?*

    2 Will Boonen ride the TDF and will he act as a lead out man for Cav?


    Assign one man to Cav, one to Boonen. If Cav makes it to the Poggio with the front group, everyone rides for him.

    As soon as Cav is dropped (before Poggio) all riding is for Tom. General race tactics are to ride for sprint finish regardless of who does the sprinting for QS.

    Tom wont do the TdF. He hates it.


    I have to defer to the Rick-ster AND GREASED*, in matters relating to the mighty Belgies' tactics. I fear that that one of Cav's holy grails will always be a 2nd MSR win, and many domestiques will get used in the process to achieve this over the next few years, irrespective of whatever team he's on

    *EDIT
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