Cavendish - How long can a sprinter stay on top?

tailwindhome

So Cavendish is the best sprinter in the world

How long he sustain performances at the level we have seen over the past few years?

Do thoroughbred sprinters have natural lifespan at the top?

When he does start to slip away, who's the next big thing?

andyjr

Cav is what 26. Got a good team around him & as long as he still has the motivation, see no reason why he can't go on for a minimum of 5 years at the current level

andyp

The likes of Cipollini, Petacchi, Zabel and Freire have shown that a sprinter can remain competitive for most of their career, assuming they can maintain their motivation.

The danger comes from getting tempted to try to expand your abilities and focusing on the classics, in the way that Boonen, Museeuw, Hushovd et al did. This tends to dull sprinting capabilities and riders who go down this path don't seem to ever come back to the same level. I personally don't think Cavendish has the raw power to be a Flanders or Roubaix winner but the temptation will be there.

ddraver

^ You might be right but I think he want to be though....I get the feeling that if he wants to be a classic rider, no one will be able to change his mind.

rick_chasey

It's all about who you're up against.

Cavendish's legacy would improve if he had some more competition me thinks.

inkyfingers

The good thing for Cavendish is that he I think he has achieved most of his major career aims (Green Jersey, Milan San Remo, Worlds) by the age of 26. In the next few years he'll want to win a few more green Jerseys, another Milan San Remo and probably races like Ghent-Wevelgem and Paris-Tours. If he can achieve all that by say 29 then he would still have plenty of time left to focus on other races, whether he can do it though is another matter. A lot would have to go in his favour for him to get to the finale of Flanders or Roubaix in the front group and his team and sponsors might not want him to give up regular sprint wins for the distictly remote possibility of winning a cobbled classic.

I'd never write him off though, you don't achieve what he has so far without a large amount of talent and willpower.

If he does just carry on as he is at the moment then barring injury he could probably carry on competitively for another 8 years, Zabel, McEwen and Petacchi were all winning GT stages in their early-mid 30s, though admittedly not as many as they were winning in their late 20s.

rick_chasey

inkyfingers wrote:

The good thing for Cavendish is that he I think he has achieved most of his major career aims (Green Jersey, Milan San Remo, Worlds) by the age of 26. In the next few years he'll want to win a few more green Jerseys, another Milan San Remo and probably races like Ghent-Wevelgem and Paris-Tours. If he can achieve all that by say 29 then he would still have plenty of time left to focus on other races, whether he can do it though is another matter. .

People said the same of Boonen in '05/'06.

Turfle

Much as I love watching him win, I really hope he does go the route of trying for Flanders etc. Eisel said that everything Cav excels at in the TTT are the things he'd need to excel at over the cobbles. He may turn out rubbish, but I'd love to see him give it a serious go at some point.

greasedscotsman

Does anyone think he can win Flanders with the new revised route? I would say not. Maybe the old route which finished in Ninove, but the new one? No chance.

And I would say the same for Roubaix. Think he's only started it once and didn't finish.

rick_chasey

Not Flanders.

Turfle

Flanders is the one Cav really wants. It does seem too far out of step with his current abilities, but you never know.

tremayne

I very much think that motivation will be the biggest single determining factor in the ongoing success of this amazing British talent. Power output, race condition, results are all the result of motivation.

The good news (for me anyway) is that he appears to be an incredibly strong willed individual. That said, huge success can sometimes be detrimental to ongoing motivation. Once he's won everything, it could prove tough for him. However, he does talk about 'legacy' on occasion and hopefully, he can concentrate on rewriting the record books.

Another factor could be his daughter-to-be. But again, easy enough to turn this into a positive and set his sights on "doing it for her".

Getting knocked off top spot by a new pretender? I probably think not! Not for several years yet anyways.

rebs

I think it's very hard to say. Cav is like Wiggins. Massive engine inside him and narrow minded on what he wants.

We've all seen how Wiggins and become World Class Trackie to respected GC contender.

Whats to stop Cav going from Spinter to Classics racing. All down to whether he really wants to give up the sprints to fully compete on the knobbly roads.

greasedscotsman

tremayne wrote:

I very much think that motivation will be the biggest single determining factor in the ongoing success of this amazing British talent. Power output, race condition, results are all the result of motivation.

Awesome! We can expect him to win the Tour in a few years then...

RichN95.

rebs wrote:

I think it's very hard to say. Cav is like Wiggins. Massive engine inside him and narrow minded on what he wants.

We've all seen how Wiggins and become World Class Trackie to respected GC contender.

Whats to stop Cav going from Spinter to Classics racing. All down to whether he really wants to give up the sprints to fully compete on the knobbly roads.

The thing with Cavendish is that he's always been acutely aware that this is his job and that he's being paid enormous amounts to sprint and win races and not to go off doing whatever he feels like.

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

rebs wrote:

I think it's very hard to say. Cav is like Wiggins. Massive engine inside him and narrow minded on what he wants.

We've all seen how Wiggins and become World Class Trackie to respected GC contender.

Whats to stop Cav going from Spinter to Classics racing. All down to whether he really wants to give up the sprints to fully compete on the knobbly roads.

The thing with Cavendish is that he's always been acutely aware that this is his job and that he's being paid enormous amounts to sprint and win races and not to go off doing whatever he feels like.

It's very unsexy.

There will come a point where money won't make a difference.

At that point, you wonder if he still has the hunger to go hard at the other flat monuments.

simon_e

andyp wrote:

The danger comes from getting tempted to try to expand your abilities and focusing on the classics, in the way that Boonen, Museeuw, Hushovd et al did. This tends to dull sprinting capabilities and riders who go down this path don't seem to ever come back to the same level.

I'd flip your argument and say those names may have wanted to go beyond sprinting. Doing so may take the edge of their sprint but can reap much greater rewards than just more TdF green jerseys and sprint stages/events.

If GT riders are considered to be at their best around 30 I don't see why the same can't apply to classics riders. Cavendish may not have the build of Boonen, Hincapie, Hushovd but at 26 he still has time to improve.

ddraver wrote:

I get the feeling that if he wants to be a classic rider, no one will be able to change his mind.

+1, and he'll give it absolutely everything in his quest.

okgo

Build is nothing, you can change that in no time. Its not a problem to become a bigger or smaller rider, as long as you want it enough and don't care about the possible result (brad wiggins looks like a skeleton for example)

Mad_Malx

Merckx's 34 total TdF stage wins (34?) could be a longer term target, although Cavendish has previously said he wasn't looking at this. He is currently on 20 and will hopefully equal or pass Armstrong's 22 (ex TTs) this year to move into 4th of all time.

I did wonder about Hushovd - went very quickly from being Cav's main rival to not being a contender or not contesting the sprints, although I found myself liking him much more last year.

squired

In the past Cav has said that he found it hard to motivate himself in smaller races (and would therefore get dropped on a climb that he would get over fine in the Tour de France). However, he has also said that at HTC the only race they were interested in was the Tour, whereas at Sky they want to win everything. As a result, I think the demise of HTC and switch to Sky has helped to re-motivate him. The question is how much motivation he will have in two or three years time. Also, one really serious crash in a sprint could be enough to cause him to back off where previously he'd have gone for it. I know that Boonen has said he doesn't like the danger of mass sprints anymore, while others have said that once they've had children they are less inclined to take risks in sprints.

The obvious question is who will come through to beat Cav. Greipel is actually older than him. Kittel is a possibility. Some of the young stars of the future haven't turned out to be (for example, I remember when lots of cycling fans in Europe were saying Ciolek would blow Cav away after a season or two as a pro).

Personally I can see Cav getting to the point where he's achieved all he wants, loses motivation, and retires early (somewhere between the age of 30 and 32). He will certainly earn huge sums of money between now and when he hits 30, so the one driving factor will be his will to achieve more, especially if he is no-longer at the level of the last few years.

RideOnTime

andyjr wrote:

Cav is what 26. Got a good team around him & as long as he still has the motivation, see no reason why he can't go on for a minimum of 5 years at the current level

yep, with you on that...

Jez mon

Mad_Malx wrote:

Merckx's 34 total TdF stage wins (34?) could be a longer term target, although Cavendish has previously said he wasn't looking at this. He is currently on 20 and will hopefully equal or pass Armstrong's 22 (ex TTs) this year to move into 4th of all time.

I did wonder about Hushovd - went very quickly from being Cav's main rival to not being a contender or not contesting the sprints, although I found myself liking him much more last year.

The thing is, although he was Cav's main contender, on most of the sprints, he was generally getting well beaten anyway. In last years tour, he didn't really contest the sprints, but made massive efforts on other stages. So it's difficult to gauge just how much true top end he's lost against Cav, suffice to say, it's a fair bit.

I think he may well go for the sprints jersey in the giro, he does like that race, Italy is a fairly important market for Sky and it would give him the sprints competition in all three GTs.

Think he'll start focussing on the classics in a few years, his sprint will naturally start to go, and he might grow tired of the jostling in the typical bunch sprint.

I wouldn't bet against him winning some cobbled classics and perhaps another rainbow jersey.

timoid.

squired wrote:

...and would therefore get dropped on a climb that he would get over fine in the Tour de France...

And we all know how he got over some of the climbs in the Tour de France...

RideOnTime

Jez mon wrote:

Mad_Malx wrote:

I wouldn't bet against him winning some cobbled classics and perhaps another rainbow jersey.

me too...

dave_1

Abdu's really fast sprinting was 1991-1995, Pettachi likewise 2003-2007.

Mcewan's best years were what..2003-2006?

Thor Hushovd is a bit like Johan Musseuw and Boonen-riders forced off reliance on bunch gallops after about 3 to 4 years of being v fast sprinters..Mussuew eclipsed By Abdu, Cipo, and Boonen, Hushovd by Pettachi, then Cav.

Cipollini has lasted quite a lot longer as very fast guaranteed sprint winner 1992-2002 I'd say.

I don't think Cav will last as long as Cipo as Cav finishes almost all the grand tours he rides pretty much and appears to do a full season so I think he will burn out physically or mentally much sooner than someone like Cipo who climbs off after 10 days of the grand tours and so managed to hold his peak form it seems much longer than other sprinters

greasedscotsman

Dave_1 wrote:

Thor Hushovd is a bit like Johan Musseuw and Boonen-riders forced off reliance on bunch gallops after about 3 to 4 years of being v fast sprinters..Mussuew eclipsed By Abdu, Cipo, and Boonen, Hushovd by Pettachi, then Cav

Aren't Hushovd and Boonen essentially classics riders who can sprint a bit, like Museeuw and Kelly, whereas Cavendish is a pure sprinter, like McEwen. OK, Cavendish can win races like Milan San Remo and Paris Tours, but Flanders and Roubaix? Don't see it.

OffTheBackAdam

Roubaix isn't out of the question with Cav, there's a lot of luck involved. If he gets a day without punctures, falls etc, then winning is quite possible.

greasedscotsman

OffTheBackAdam wrote:

Roubaix isn't out of the question with Cav, there's a lot of luck involved. If he gets a day without punctures, falls etc, then winning is quite possible.

No, of course not. But then experience in Roubaix is very important and so far, he's started once and not finished.

avalon

Timoid. wrote:

squired wrote:

...and would therefore get dropped on a climb that he would get over fine in the Tour de France...

And we all know how he got over some of the climbs in the Tour de France...

Cheeky boy, that's you that is.

dave_1

greasedscotsman wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

Thor Hushovd is a bit like Johan Musseuw and Boonen-riders forced off reliance on bunch gallops after about 3 to 4 years of being v fast sprinters..Mussuew eclipsed By Abdu, Cipo, and Boonen, Hushovd by Pettachi, then Cav

Aren't Hushovd and Boonen essentially classics riders who can sprint a bit, like Museeuw and Kelly, whereas Cavendish is a pure sprinter, like McEwen. OK, Cavendish can win races like Milan San Remo and Paris Tours, but Flanders and Roubaix? Don't see it.

What did they win most first? monument classics/worlds or grand tour stage gallops + points jerseys? Boonen was beating Pettachi in 2005 in sprints. Thor beating Mcewan then too so both Thor and Boonen could sprint a bit more than " a bit"..more like among fastest in the world mid 2000s. They have more than 1 string to their bow though so losing sprinters kick has not hurt..as they have great 1 day ability too. cav might end up out the sport early if he loses that kick he has now

greasedscotsman

Dave_1 wrote:

What did they win most first? monument classics/worlds or grand tour stage gallops + points jerseys? Boonen was beating Pettachi in 2005 in sprints. Thor beating McEwen then too so both Thor and Boonen could sprint a bit more than " a bit"..more like among fastest in the world mid 2000s. They have more than 1 string to their bow though so losing sprinters kick has not hurt..as they have great 1 day ability too. cav might end up out the sport early if he loses that kick he has now

Don't really see what difference it makes what they won first? But didn't Boonen come 3rd in Paris Roubaix in '02? He didn't win a stage of any Grand Tour until '04. But to compare to Petacchi in 2005, as you mention. Boonen won the Worlds, Flanders, Roubaix and 2 stages in the Tour. Petacchi won Milan San Remo, 4 Stages at the Giro, the points classification and 5 stages at the Vuelta. Who do you reckon is the sprinter and who is the classics rider who can sprint at bit?