How do you think...

The Northern Monkey

Mountain biking will change in the next 10 years?

I think...

15mm maxle/hubs will be scrapped.

29ers will get much more popular

10sp will be the standard on the majority of bikes

Electronic transmission will be tried again and fail


uuurrrmmm....

Anonymous

More gearbox bikes, possibly electronic damping, and more carbon. Possibly even carbon nanotube based materials.
Apart from that, it will still be a very few good riders hitting things hard and fast, and the vast majority of MTBers still wobbling around unsteadily
One thing I'm certain of though, the Red Bull rampage can't keep getting more and more mental each year, or it would just become a basejumping competition!

bike-a-swan

10 years is a long time. Still, here's my best.

-Lighter, stronger.

-Travel will more or less plateau. There's only so much you can fit underneath your average person!

-Class of bike will be a lot less dependent on travel i.e. a bigger mix of short travel hard hitters, long travel traily racey things etc

-You will continue to pay more for progressively smaller improvements

-Bridleways will get more and more crowded.

-MTBers will be more accepted by the general public. The haters will become more hatey.

-There will be a lot more electrickery, whether in gears, suspension (see Cannondale), or drive.

-There will be at least one weird trend that you wouldn't really expect but will kind of make sense once you think about it...

-I will almost certainly be proved wrong on most of the above!

bike-a-swan

oh, gearboxes too- good point.

I also intend to still be out having fun! Or crippled...

Anonymous

And there will still be freaks riding rigid steel singlespeeds. But, the trend will be to have to pedal backwards to go forwards.

mikezer0

Hub gear boxes instead of BB's.

lawman

140mm carbon trail bikes will rule the world, most ti bikes will be dead, and steel will be used by wierdos with beards, hydralics/wireless will take over gear shifting, suspension etc, steve peat will still be racing DH, more trail centres will appear, things will just be generally better

Anonymous

mikezer0 wrote:

Hub gear boxes instead of BB's.

I'm actually from the future. I had one years and years and years and years and years and years ago.

bike-a-swan

I've got a rigid carbon and ally singlespeed- does that count?

D-Cyph3r

Unless we have some mental geological activity mountain biking will still be rather pants in Essex.

supersonic

I wrote a big spread for WMB on this.

Lighter and stronger for sure. The bike companies already have the next step - but they never release their full potential in one year, but eek it out for maximum return.

I think:

- carbon, composites and super alu alloys will rule, and steel will die a death for bike frames

- DLC coatings on chainrings and parts

- Computer controlled damping and suspension

- In fact many electronic and computer controlled things

- 11 speed will arrive at some point, unfortunately

- In search for the ultimate bike, many common standards will be ignored as manufacturers do more inhouse development

Lapierre t 400

I can definatly see electronic shifting coming,suspension will get even better maybe kashima coated shocks for 2012 ?,manufacturers will use more carbon and ceramic bearings.Strait pull hubs will be the norm

MountainMonster

The biggest change will be I will be better. Let's hope that happens!

hammy7272

After gettng back in the saddle after about 10 years out, I was suprised how far things had moved on. That is one thing that keeps me going to stay fit enough to enjoy the developments of the future. I also look forward to more, and the advancement of trail centres. 8)

ride_whenever

yeehaamcgee wrote:

more carbon. Possibly even carbon nanotube based materials.

What like the ancient eastons ???????

Anonymous

Erm. yeah. :!:
I'd be surprised if that was made from carbon nanotubes, since the largest structures they've been able to make in the lab are about the size of a hair, no? :?

aaronmroach

Im going to go for a step away from carbon fibre and more into mixed fibre GRP's (glass reinforced plastics) similar to kevlar.

Mag alloy matrix instead of titanium.

Hydraulic shifting.

Electromagnetic dampning adjustment (done by suspending metal molecules in the suspenion flid and a charge aligns them increasing the viscosity) and computer vibration sampling control of said system.

A decrease in travel but a greater control and smoother vector travel for the wheel.

Nitrogen charged oleo style suspension.

Anonymous

aaronmroach wrote:

A decrease in travel but a greater control and smoother vector travel for the wheel.

Nitrogen charged oleo style suspension.

Are you sure you know what those two things mean?

aaronmroach

Yeah just i think.

With my HND in mechanical engineering and technical design, and ten years of aircraft engineering 5 pure propulsion then a multiskiling programme to incorporate all other mechanical systems.

I think I just get it!! (although my spelling and gramar leave alot to be desired!!)

Anonymous

In that case, I'd love to know what you think you mean by "smooth vector for wheel travel".

Or, if you could point out a bike that the wheel doesn't travel in a smooth path, I'd be surprised.
Aaaand... we've essentially had Oleo shocks for what seems like forever.

cooldad

Oleo sounds like a name for cheap margarine.

I hope they don't get too complicated. Already cars are too difficult for the average person to fix and need a diagnostic thingy to even find a fault. Be a pity if bikes become so hard to maintain they are effectively disposable.

aaronmroach

A constant distance between axel and virtual pivot rather than the concertina effect we have at the moment, where the wheel moves slightly closer to the virtual pivot point and effects chain line and mechanical effiency. Rather than a linear up and down motion with slight adjustment inwards to not affect the chain line. (santa cruz are very close to it with their VPP)

Oleo style shocks we do not have yet, we have a system that is close to it, charging of nitrogen and the control of it while forces act upon it via the use of pots and pressre relief sections, labrynth seals and open chambers at the same time doing the same to the hydraulic fluid in the lower portion of the leg so you get a combined dampening, travel, and rebound system from a single chamber we dont quite have yet. We have air pressure acting on hyd fluid to make it do all of the afformentioned things and / or a spring or air chamber in the adjacent leg o provide the rebound.

aaronmroach

Any way why the attack on my thoughts??

It is supposed to be a thread about where do you THINK cycles are going on the next 10 years not get some one with a good idea and a tiny bit of techniclal knowledge and try and make him look a C%*T thread?? RIGHT?? :shock:

supersonic

A constant distance between axel and virtual pivot rather than the concertina effect we have at the moment, where the wheel moves slightly closer to the virtual pivot point and effects chain line and mechanical effiency. Rather than a linear up and down motion with slight adjustment inwards to not affect the chain line. (santa cruz are very close to it with their VPP)

What about anti-squat?

Anonymous

aaronmroach wrote:

A constant distance between axel and virtual pivot rather than the concertina effect we have at the moment, where the wheel moves slightly closer to the virtual pivot point and effects chain line and mechanical effiency. Rather than a linear up and down motion with slight adjustment inwards to not affect the chain line. (santa cruz are very close to it with their VPP)

The reason why I'm calling your ideas into question is because having the axle stay a set distance from the pivot point, real or virtual would cause massive sag under pedaling.
That's quite apart from understanding the goals of SC/s VPP, which essentially has the same goals as almost all other VPP systems. To create pedal force induced anti sag (regardless of what their marketing guff says)

Plus, what you're suggesting are idea that are either in existence already, or have been done before.
And, I'm grumpy tonight.

aaronmroach

Anti squat is the relationship between acceleration and traction? squat is a suspension's reaction to mass transfer that happens during acceleration

This has very little bearing on the VPP travel. It does however have alot to do with the balance beam effect of the initial design process. The closer to balanced suspension is designed, the better traction the suspension has in all conditions.

Anti squat can be a good thing, it means you gain traction during the acceleration stages of travel as it enables the wheel to stay in maximum contact with the ground.

Dave weagle has invented a neat little link that enables squat to be utilised! Its cool but I dont know how it works, I understand it shifts the impact of initial mass but the math is above me.

aaronmroach

Ideas that have been tried before but were never perfected.

every ones allowed a second crack at an idea. Look at Sir frank whittle and the gas turb!!! Binned it the germans robbed it he saw there mods and started again!!!! Hey presto the modern Jet engine!!

Anonymous

All Dave weagle has done is found a way around specialized's horst link patent. Anti squat is the term we use to describe the effect of drive chain tension resisting the bike's tendency to squat at the back end. The squat is caused by the rider's downward efforts, moreso than acceleration on a push bike.
Having the swingarm pivot at the bb, as you suggest, exaggerates squat, since the force of the chain will effectively try to pull the rear cassette over the pivot.
Even if the pivot was perfectly in line with the chain, the chain force would still, contrary to popular belief, pull the rear wheel upwards. This is compounded by the suspension moving through it's travel, and by the fact that current gearystems place the chain at different angles for different gears.
So, i still doubt that whatever aspect of mechanical engineering you studied has any useful relation to bicycle suspension.
And besides, the idea has been done, and was bandied about like the holy grail, until someone actually rode the damn thing.

Northwind

More carbon fibre
More belt drives
More incremental improvements in existing technology in tyres, carbon fibre and suspension
Nothing actually all that spectacularily different.
The rear mech to remain king
And gearboxes etc to remain very exciting for magazines and almost completely unused in the real world.
And inevitably about 1000 new "standards" to be launched, of which 950 will be no damn use to anyone and 40 will be improvements but will never be taken up.

bigbelly

How about magneto dampers like in sports cars, powered by peizo cystals.

Initial shock powers the crystals, resultant electricity used to alter viscosity of oil in damper unit.

So it's a fancy damper......that should be cheaper than full computer controlled damping.
But what do I know???

Anonymous

ROCKETS! ROCKET powered bikes!
So we can take insane dh bikes back up the hill without gondolas!